Aktuelles aus der Redaktion - Private Wealth

Aug 28, 2023 News from the editorial

Economic traffic light remains on red.

A month ago, the business cycle component of the private wealth stock market indicator had switched to red. The results of the Ifo Business Survey on the German business climate for August confirmed this assessment. The ifo economic traffic light is on red and on the ifo economic clock Germany is now clearly in the crisis quadrant. You know: The decisive role in the analysis of the economic trend in the private-wealth stock market indicator is played by the ifo Institute's monthly survey of…

Klaus Meitinger 36

Jul 25, 2023 News from the editorial

Economy tense, seismograph relaxed.

A month ago we pointed out that the economic component of the private wealth indicator would probably give a sell signal at the end of July and therefore reduced the equity quota somewhat as a precaution. Now this fear has come true. You know: The decisive role in the analysis of the economic trend in the private-wealth stock market indicator is played by the monthly survey of the ifo Institute on business expectations in German industry. Here the participants have a choice between three answer…

Klaus Meitinger 69

Jul 19, 2023 News from the editorial

Thunderclouds are dissipating.

The capital market seismograph had issued a thunderstorm warning nine days ago. The probability of negative turbulence on the stock markets had increased significantly. For precautionary reasons, the equity quota was reduced accordingly. This step is now - in part - being revised again. As you know, the seismograph combines various variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets.From these, the probabilities for three market states in…

Klaus Meitinger 69

Jul 10, 2023 News from the editorial

Thunderstorm Warning.

The capital market seismograph issues a thunderstorm warning. The probability of negative turbulence on the stock markets increases. It is advisable to further reduce the equity exposure. Within the strategic corridor for equity allocation, which depends on the development of the economy and the market valuation, the capital market seismograph determines the exact positioning of the private-wealth stock market indicator. After a prolonged period in which the seismograph suggested being fully…

Klaus Meitinger 77

Jun 28, 2023 News from the editorial

Economic weakness calls for caution.

The economic component of the private wealth stock market indicator is collapsing. It is advisable to reduce the equity quota as a precaution. The strategic corridor for equity allocation suggested by the private-wealth stock market indicator is determined by two factors - the economic trend and the valuation of the DAX. Basically, the idea is to be more heavily invested in equities when the DAX is low and the German economic traffic light is green at the same time. If the economic outlook…

Klaus Meitinger 106

Jun 14, 2023 News from the editorial

Seismograph remains positive.

Despite all the uncertainty surrounding interest rates, the economy and corporate earnings, the capital market seismograph remains on track. "Most recently, even most input variables have increased the probability of calm, positive markets. The main culprits were changes in the yield curve and a slight brightening of the global economic climate," explains Oliver Schlick, Secaro, who regularly calculates the seismograph with his team and derives allocation decisions from it. His conclusion: "In…

Klaus Meitinger 97

May 25, 2023 News from the editorial

Warning signal from the ifo economic indicator.

The Munich-based ifo Institute's business climate index fell surprisingly sharply in May. The slump in business expectations in industry, which play a decisive role in the private-wealth stock market indicator, was particularly sharp. This index fell from minus 2.3 points in April to minus 13.6 points now (chart above). For us, business expectations in industry are so important because they are not only an indicator for the German economy but also for the DAX. In the past, a decline in the…

Klaus Meitinger 120

Apr 10, 2023 News from the editorial

Seismograph goes on the offensive.

The capital market seismograph delivered a little Easter surprise. In keeping with the festive season, the storm clouds seem to be gradually receding. "The long-lasting dominance of negative turbulence probability has ended. Positive and negative turbulence probability (yellow and red) are now roughly equal. In such a scenario, it is appropriate to overweight stocks in the portfolio," informs Oliver Schlick, who translates the signals of the seismograph into allocation proposals for Secaro…

Klaus Meitinger 180

Apr 04, 2023 News from the editorial

Thunderclouds continue to dissipate.

A week ago we informed you here that the probability distribution on the seismograph had improved step by step. In recent weeks, the red probability for turbulent-negative markets had gradually decreased towards two-thirds - to the same extent, "yellow", the probability for positive turbulence, increased. Consequently, the underweighting of equities in the allocation proposal of the model was reduced and the equity quota slightly increased.This trend continued recently. "The probability…

Klaus Meitinger 171

Mar 30, 2023 News from the editorial

Improvement in the seismograph "across the board".

In the capital markets, things sometimes do not go as they seem logical at first glance. In the past few days, news from the banking sector unsettled investors. Actually, the bank quake represents a new, additional risk factor for the stock markets, which - so the assumption - could also increase the probability of thunderstorms on the capital market seismograph.At the same time, however, yields on US five-year government bonds fell because market participants expect that the interest rate peak…

Klaus Meitinger 182

Mar 28, 2023 News from the editorial

Good news from the economy.

Situation better, expectations more optimistic - the Ifo Business Climate in March puts a tick behind the recession fears in Germany. The positioning on the ifo business cycle clock continues to move steadily in the direction of recovery (chart above). And the economic traffic light of the Munich-based economic researchers is green (bottom chart). The index for business expectations in industry, which plays a decisive role in the private-wealth stock market indicator, has recovered particularly…

Klaus Meitinger 162

Mar 09, 2023 News from the editorial

Seismograph becomes (slightly) less defensive.

It remains exciting with the indicators that determine the private-wealth stock market indicator. On 25 January, the ifo business climate provided an economic buy signal for German shares. Currently, the capital market seismograph, which has been very cautious for a long time, is beginning to loosen its defensive stance somewhat. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets.…

Klaus Meitinger 171

Feb 24, 2023 News from the editorial

Turnaround in the economy underpinned.

The emerging turnaround in the German economy is becoming increasingly clear. The German economy is more resilient than most economists had expected. This underpins the strategic buy signal for German equities from the business cycle component in last month's private-wealth stock market indicator. The latest ifo Business Climate Index for February shows a further improvement in sentiment in the German economy. The positioning on the ifo business cycle clock is now gradually moving in the…

Klaus Meitinger 186

Feb 01, 2023 News from the editorial

A race against time.

After the business cycle component of the private-wealth stock market indicator delivered a buy signal last week, we received many enquiries from the network. How can it be that the outlook in industry is improving while new orders - an important leading indicator - are declining significantly? Indeed, new orders do not look good. Since the beginning of '22 they have been showing a clear downward trend, both from abroad and domestically. Especially in real terms - i.e. in terms of pure volume -…

Klaus Meitinger 240

Jan 26, 2023 News from the editorial

Strategic buy signal for German equities.

The economic component of the private-wealth stock market indicator provides a strategic, long-term buy signal for German equities. It is therefore advisable to increase the equity ratio. You know: The equity allocation corridor suggested by the private-wealth stock market indicator is determined by two factors - the economic trend and the valuation of the DAX. Basically, it is about being strategically more invested in equities when the DAX is low and the German economic traffic light is green…

Klaus Meitinger 201

Dec 23, 2022 News from the editorial

Is the recession over?

The ifo business climate index delivered a positive surprise at the end of the year. For the third time in a row, the business expectations of the 9,000 entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute rose significantly in December. In ifo diction, this is considered a sign of a turnaround in the German economy. The details: After an almost continuous decline since February 2022, the mood among entrepreneurs has been steadily improving since October. The pointer on the ifo business cycle clock…

Klaus Meitinger 237

Dec 22, 2022 News from the editorial

Countdown 2023, a look into the crystal ball: Part 4 - Lerbacher Kompetenzkreis.

At the end of the year, economists, investment strategists and asset managers look ahead. These days they publish their forecasts and strategies for the new year. Especially with regard to the future course of the central banks and the economy, there is enormous uncertainty today. For investors, however, it is precisely these developments that are decisive. Corporate results depend on the economy. And the interest rate trend decisively determines how high the expected profits will be valued on…

Klaus Meitinger 263

Dec 20, 2022 News from the editorial

Countdown 2023, a look into the crystal ball: PART 3 - Schroders and Merck Finck.

At the end of the year, economists, investment strategists and asset managers look ahead. These days they publish their forecasts and strategies for the new year. Private wealth attends the most interesting conferences and publishes the most exciting thoughts of the professionals to offer you, dear readers, inspiration and guidance for a (hopefully) successful investment year 2023. Sincerely yours, Klaus Meitinger Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be assumed for the…

Klaus Meitinger 378

Dec 15, 2022 News from the editorial

Countdown 2023, a look into the crystal ball: PART 2 - Janus Henderson.

At the end of the year, economists, investment strategists and asset managers look ahead. These days they publish their forecasts and strategies for the new year. Private wealth attends the most interesting conferences and publishes the most exciting thoughts of the professionals to offer you, dear readers, inspiration and guidance for a (hopefully) successful investment year 2023. Yours sincerely, Klaus Meitinger Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be accepted for the…

Klaus Meitinger 259

Dec 14, 2022 News from the editorial

Countdown 2023, a look into the crystal ball: PART 1 - Bankhaus Metzler.

At the end of the year, economists, investment strategists and asset managers look ahead. These days they publish their forecasts and strategies for the new year. Private wealth attends the most interesting conferences and publishes the most exciting thoughts of the professionals to offer you, dear readers, inspiration and orientation for a (hopefully) successful investment year 2023. Yours sincerely, Klaus Meitinger Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be accepted for…

Klaus Meitinger 320

Dec 09, 2022 News from the editorial

Countdown 2023, a look into the crystal ball.

At the end of the year, economists, investment strategists and asset managers look ahead. These days they publish their forecasts and strategies for the new year. Private wealth takes part in the most interesting conferences and publishes the most exciting thoughts of the professionals. We can already say that the overwhelming majority of the events are about change, transformation or turning points. Let's remember - the investment year 2022 was dominated by the surprisingly strong rise in…

Klaus Meitinger 242

Nov 28, 2022 News from the editorial

First ray of hope in the economic indicator.

In November, companies in industry as a whole became somewhat more optimistic again. Although the current business situation has deteriorated, this was to be expected in view of the negative business expectations for the next six months in the past ifo surveys. On the positive side, business expectations for the next six months in November are now less pessimistic. In this part of the survey, respondents have to indicate whether they expect the business situation to become more favourable,…

Klaus Meitinger 258

Nov 22, 2022 News from the editorial

This is how family businesses become sustainability champions.

Sustainability has become a decisive competitive advantage. Family businesses can play a pioneering role in this area. Professor Marcel Hülsbeck from the Witten Institute for Family Enterprises WIFU shows how the transformation to sustainability champion succeeds. Based on current research findings, WIFU has developed a model that enables family businesses to develop a holistic sustainability strategy based on 10 steps. // 01. raise awareness of values in the entrepreneurial family and among…

Wittener Institut für Familienunternehmen (WIFU) 345

Nov 18, 2022 News from the editorial

But just another bear market rally?

After the positive price development of the last few weeks, many investors hope that this might already have marked the end of the price downturn on the stock markets. But the capital market seismograph dampens this optimism. "The probability of negative turbulence remains absolutely dominant. This is not an environment in which major risks should be taken," informs Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro Gmbh, who translates the results of the capital market seismograph into an allocation…

Klaus Meitinger 206

Sep 20, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph becomes even more cautious.

In August and early September, after a long period of maximum defensiveness, slight easing signals for equity investors came from the capital market seismograph. The probability of negative turbulence had fallen somewhat in favour of the probability of positive turbulence. "In the meantime, however, the probability landscape has shifted significantly towards negative turbulence again," informs Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH: "It is therefore advisable to reinforce the…

Klaus Meitinger 357

Aug 24, 2022 News from the editorial

Positive development in the capital market seismograph stopped.

"The more favourable development of the capital market seismograph in the last few weeks has almost reversed itself in the last few days", informs Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH, "the probability in the direction of positive, calm markets receded, the negative turbulence probability rose again at the expense of the other two probabilities". As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or even price…

Klaus Meitinger 387

Aug 19, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph sees mood on the stock markets improve further.

At the beginning of August, after a long period of maximum defensiveness, the capital market seismograph delivered a first easing signal for equity investors. At that time, there was for the first time again a slight decline in the probabilities for negative turbulence in favour of the probability for positive turbulence. "This means it is appropriate to no longer be maximally underweighted, but only underweighted," explained Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro Gmbh, a fortnight ago.…

Klaus Meitinger 414

Canary in a Coal Mine No Printed Materials edit width 1200px

Aug 10, 2022 News from the editorial

Canary in the coal mine.

Dear readers, We are constantly checking analyses and opinions of established research houses in order to provide you with only interesting and relevant information on our homepage instead of the usual noise and white noise. We have just noticed a graph that we do not want to deprive you of. The source is the renowned British research house Capital Economics. It shows the annual rate of change in new orders in Danish exports and in the volume of world trade (below). This chart is interesting…

Klaus Meitinger 386

Aug 02, 2022 News from the editorial

A small glimmer of hope.

For some time now, the Secaro Gmbh model, which translates the results of the capital market seismograph into an allocation proposal, has advised maximum defensiveness. Now Secaro managing director Oliver Schlick is cautiously feeling his way back into the stock market: "Between the probability of negative turbulence (red) and the probability of positive turbulence (yellow) there has recently been a limited exchange in favour of the probability of positive turbulence. For the file allocation,…

Klaus Meitinger 358

Jul 28, 2022 News from the editorial

Ten years after.

Ten years ago, on 26 July 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi promised in the face of the euro crisis at the time: "Within our mandate, the ECB stands ready to do whatever is necessary to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." It worked. Since then, "whatever it takes" has determined ECB policy. However, the first half-sentence "within the framework of our mandate" hardly matters any more. In the ten years since then, the European central bank has massively expanded the money…

Klaus Meitinger 352

Jul 15, 2022 News from the editorial

Before the showdown.

Sometime between July 21 and July 25, maintenance work on the NordStream 1 gas pipeline is expected to be completed. After that, it will come to a showdown: Will gas flow again or will Putin cut off Germany's supply of Russian gas? To provide guidance in this difficult situation, Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS, discussed with his colleagues the magnitude of the gas problem and the impact on the economy and inflation. To give you, dear readers, some orientation, I would like to share a…

Klaus Meitinger 460

Jul 06, 2022 News from the editorial

We are staying under cover.

Hopes for a turn for the better in ifo business expectations - the most important economic indicator for us - were dashed in June. After rising twice in April and May, expectations in the manufacturing sector deteriorated again. This means that the prerequisite for a positive trend reversal in the business cycle component of the private-wealth barometer - three consecutive increases - has not been met. The economic signal remains red. From this, we continue to derive a corridor for the…

Klaus Meitinger 363

Jun 15, 2022 News from the editorial

The real estate puzzle.

Real estate is considered a safe haven - especially in times of inflation. And indeed, experts from the industry do not see any significant risks for price development due to the rise in mortgage rates. The demand for housing is still high, they say, the increased construction prices make existing housing more attractive and even now the financing conditions are historically favourable. In the worst case, they expect a sideways trend in property prices. Interestingly, while the housing market…

Klaus Meitinger 140

Jun 14, 2022 News from the editorial

Stay cool and in cash.

Once again, the Seismograph underlined how valuable it is for investors. Since 3 May, the Secaro Gmbh model has been advising maximum caution. At the time, Secaro managing director Oliver Schlick informed us: "All input factors just caused a significant increase in the probability of negative turbulence. The dynamics are so strong that the rules of the model call for a clear change in the equity quota. The recommendation of the approach is now to be strongly defensive and maximally cautious."…

Klaus Meitinger 129

May 03, 2022 News from the editorial

Emergency Exit at the Capital Market Seismograph.

"All input factors just caused a significant increase in the probability of negative turbulence. The dynamics are so strong that the rules of the model require a clear change in the equity quota. The recommendation of the approach is now to be strongly defensive and maximally cautious," reports Oliver Schlick, managing director of Secaro GmbH, who regularly calculates the seismograph and links it to investment recommendations. As they know, the seismograph combines various economic variables -…

Klaus Meitinger 446

Apr 08, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph remains relaxed.

In view of the unusually uncertain situation on the capital markets, we had announced to you that we would monitor the development of the capital market seismograph very closely and closely. On April 3, the seismograph had finally indicated an increase in the equity ratio. Since then, the situation has worsened again. The probability of an import freeze for Russian oil and gas has increased. The risk of recession in Europe has risen accordingly. And at the same time, it is becoming increasingly…

Klaus Meitinger 467

Apr 04, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph: Overall picture continues to brighten.

At the end of February, the capital market seismograph had indicated a massive thunderstorm warning. At the end of March, the clouds began to clear. Now, the seismograph is again aligning itself offensively. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation…

Klaus Meitinger 505

Mar 30, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph signals slight all-clear.

At the end of February, the results of the capital market seismograph had made it appear advisable to significantly reduce the equity allocation. Now the situation is easing again slightly. As you know, the seismograph combines various variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments and price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, the probabilities for three market states are distilled. Green stands for the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow…

Klaus Meitinger 458

Mar 28, 2022 News from the editorial

The ifo climate crashes on schedule.

A month ago, we wrote in this space: In our view, it is very likely that an overwhelming majority of the entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute in March will assess their business expectations less favorably on a six-month horizon. In this case, the expectations component in the ifo climate would decline significantly - and not gradually, as in a normal business cycle, but quickly and abruptly. At the time, we simulated how the private-wealth stock market indicator would react to such a…

Klaus Meitinger 439

Mar 22, 2022 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph remains on the defensive.

At the end of February, the results of the capital market seismograph had made it appear advisable to significantly reduce the share quota. The red probability - signal for an impending stock market storm - had risen quickly and significantly. At the time, Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH, commented: "Such a scenario means: a dark band of clouds is rapidly approaching. Investors have to act to avoid getting wet. According to the rules of the model, this requires going strongly…

Klaus Meitinger 448

Mar 01, 2022 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph is out.

As promised, we will keep you up to date on developments in the capital market seismograph. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as leading economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow denotes the probability for a turbulent positive market. And red indicates the…

Klaus Meitinger 469

Feb 28, 2022 News from the editorial

Incalculable risks for investors.

There are a few ironclad rules when using capital market models. Never intervene manually in your model. And don't try to anticipate the evolution of input variables. Extraordinary situations, however, require extraordinary measures. That's why today we'd like to give you a peek into the engine room of the private-wealth stock market model. In the model, we use the ifo business expectations in German industry as an indicator of the impact of the economy on the stock market. If they deteriorate,…

Klaus Meitinger 486

Feb 24, 2022 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph does not pull the ripcord yet.

As promised, we will keep you up to date on developments in the capital market seismograph. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow denotes the probability for a turbulent positive market. And red indicates the…

Klaus Meitinger 489

Feb 22, 2022 News from the editorial

Keep your nerve.

A month ago, the economic indicator - part of the private-wealth stock market model - had given a buy signal. As a result, at a DAX level of around 15,100 points, the model increased the suggested equity allocation from 75 percent (underweight) to 115 percent (overweight). We explained the logic of the stock market model to you in detail at the time. The latest results of the ifo Institute on the business climate in February confirm this signal. For the fourth time in a row, business…

Klaus Meitinger 430

Feb 18, 2022 News from the editorial

Updated analysis on TubeSolar.

Dear Sir and Madam, on Tuesday we had given you an update on TubeSolar's corporate history and announced that Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal, analyst at First Berlin Equity Research, would revise his assessment of the stock in the coming days. This has now been done. With Mr. von Blumenthal's permission, we are happy to provide you with the analysis.

Klaus Meitinger 506

Feb 13, 2022 News from The Lerbach Round Table

Interest rate fears are exaggerated.

In view of high inflation rates, interest rates are rising worldwide. After around three years in negative territory, there are now positive yields on ten-year federal bonds again for the first time. And central banks are signaling that they will take their foot off the gas this year. Analysts are therefore already talking about the start of a new investment regime. What is in store for investors? The editors of private wealth asked the Lerbach Competence Circle - 40 strategists from family…

Klaus Meitinger 562

Feb 01, 2022 News from the editorial

Modern Monetary Deception.

For three years, Modern Monetary Theory has led the world to believe that it can create an economic paradise - a world in which the state has unlimited capital at its disposal for investment or job guarantees to ensure a perpetual upswing. Now - in view of high inflation rates - the litmus test is due. And the theory fails miserably. Remember. In 2019, much was written about the fascinating "Modern Monetary Theory". Even private wealth reported on it (link 01/19 Welcome to paradise).The idea:…

Klaus Meitinger 416

Jan 27, 2022 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph remains relaxed.

After the turbulent stock market days of the last week, we were very curious about the current result of the capital market seismograph. Would the seismograph, which is supposed to warn of massive stock market storms in good time, strike out? "Our indicators tend to suggest that the setbacks on the stock markets are an exaggeration. We do have to be prepared for turbulent times lasting longer than expected - but these do not necessarily have to be bad for stock investors," informs Oliver…

Klaus Meitinger 498

Jan 26, 2022 News from the editorial

private-wealth stock market indicator gives buy signal.

In July 2021, the economic indicator - part of the private-wealth stock market model - had given a sell signal. As a result, at a DAX level of around 15,600 points, the model reduced the proposed equity allocation from 110 percent (overweight) to 75 percent (underweight). Now - after a very volatile start to the year - the private-wealth stock market model is going on the offensive again at a DAX level of around 15,100 points. We explained the logic of the stock market model to you in detail a…

Klaus Meitinger 458

Jan 11, 2022 News from the editorial

Idorsia - first milestone reached!

In the cover story of the latest issue of private wealth, we introduced you to the entrepreneurial couple Martine and Jean-Paul Clozel. They are founders and major shareholders of the Swiss biopharma company Idorsia. Jean-Paul directs the company's business as CEO, while Martine heads up research as Chief Scientific Officer.The goal of the two is to build Idorsia into a leading biopharmaceutical company with a strong scientific core, "We want to discover things that others haven't discovered.…

Silke Lauenstein 446

Dec 31, 2021 News from the editorial

private-wealth stock market indicator ahead of equity quota increase.

For more than 15 years, private wealth's stock market indicator has been giving equity investors valuable pointers on how to allocate the equity portion of their portfolio. The basic idea is to find out when the relationship between opportunities and risks in equity investments is positive. And when it is not. Anyone who used this as a guide would have been able to participate in the long upward phases on the markets and avoid the major loss phases, at least in part. How does the stock market…

Silke Lauenstein 496

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Omikron and the capital market seismograph.

Rarely have we been so eager to see the latest result of the capital market seismograph as today. Would the turmoil of the last few trading days and the concerns surrounding the Omicron variant change the positive view of the stock market barometer? "To be sure, the likelihood of calm markets has been dampened. In return, the expectation of a positively volatile market rose. Negative turbulence is still not in sight. On balance, the seismograph's positive market expectations remain unchanged",…

Klaus Meitinger 584

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Light at the end of the tunnel.

The publication of the ifo Business Climate for the month of November has led to almost unison negative comments. "Worries about a cooling of the global economy", "Corona blues". Indeed, the ifo business cycle clock (chart below left) is ticking swiftly through the cooling quadrant and is now approaching crisis territory alarmingly. The ifo economic traffic light (chart below right) also remains "deep red". In plain language: the ifo Institute now rates the probability of a cyclical phase of…

Klaus Meitinger 602

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

The climate is getting frosty.

Our indicators suggest that there will be greater fluctuations on the stock markets in the coming weeks. This is why the private-wealth stock market indicator already reduced its suggested equity allocation three months ago. The current data from German industry support this decision.

Klaus Meitinger 496

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

The recipe for success of family businesses.

Dear Readers, Family businesses are recognized worldwide for their outstanding entrepreneurial achievements. But what exactly is this model of success? What puts it at risk? And how can it be secured in the long term? You will find the answers in this special edition of private wealth, produced in cooperation with the Witten Institute for Family Business (WIFU). If you are not yet a subscriber, all you need to do to read this special edition is to register for a free trial subscription.

Sonderveröffentlichung: Wittener Institut für Familienunternehmen 439

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Summer's euphoria has faded.

Sentiment in German industry has deteriorated further. After peaking in March 2021, business expectations in the manufacturing sector have now fallen for the fifth time in a row. And export expectations also fell significantly. In short, the summer euphoria has completely evaporated. On the ifo Business Cycle Clock, the German economy is now on the verge of leaving the boom sector and entering the cooling segment (chart). This confirms the risk of a turnaround in the economy and underpins our…

Klaus Meitinger 444

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Take profits.

The ifo business climate survey for July confirmed the downward trend in German industry. This means that one of the three factors of the private-wealth stock market indicator - the economic component - has turned red. Investors should reduce their equity exposure and take some profits. The details: after peaking in February 2021, business expectations in the industrial sector have fallen for the fourth time in a row. In principle, the rule has applied in the past: if business expectations in…

Klaus Meitinger 455

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Is the party over?

When the party is at its best, they say, you should leave. The equity markets have been doing well for months, and the private-wealth stock market indicator is fully on board with an overweight in equities. But now the economic component of the model is giving a sell signal. Is it time to take profits? Let's take a closer look at the latest ifo business climate. It is true that sentiment in the German economy improved further overall in June. However, expectations in the industrial sector,…

Klaus Meitinger 428

May 29, 2021 News

Review - A lot has happened...

Perfect followers. In issue 01/18, private wealth reported on the investment idea of "search funds". In this model, outstanding university graduates try to find an established medium-sized company with a succession problem that they can buy - in order to continue running it themselves. Investors support this process, securing a stake in interesting companies if the search is successful. The only reason this brilliant idea hasn't really taken off so far is because there's been a lack of…

Klaus Meitinger 737

May 29, 2021 News from the editorial

Full throttle.

Dear Readers, Despite rising infection figures, the economic recovery in the German economy is continuing with increased momentum. The upswing scenario established since July 2020 has thus been further consolidated. This is underlined by the latest surveys of the ifo Institute on the business climate and export expectations. In March, these even rose to their highest level since January 2011! Particularly impressive is the development in industry, whose expectations are an important indicator…

Klaus Meitinger 693

Feb 26, 2021 News from the editorial

On Track.

Dear Readers, In February, the ifo business climate made up for the dip in January. The positive development in industry, which is also decisive for the private wealth stock market indicator, was particularly impressive. The assessment of the situation there has now returned to the level of summer 2019 - so the Corona slump has been more than made up for. And business expectations are also pointing upwards again.

Klaus Meitinger 658

Feb 10, 2021 News from the editorial

Will 2021 be a top stock year?

Dear Readers, Over the past month, we have virtually visited a dozen annual outlooks from banks and asset managers. The bottom line is clear: this year, the augurs expect a massive economic recovery, rising inflation rates and yet continued ultra-expansionary monetary policy. What does this mean for investment strategy? At the beginning of his 2021 Annual Outlook each year, Neuberger Berman asks the audience which asset class will perform best in the coming year. This time, the answer was…

Klaus Meitinger 892

Feb 08, 2021 News from the editorial

Is inflation coming back?

Dear Readers, Over the past month, we have virtually visited a dozen annual outlooks from banks and asset managers. The bottom line is clear: this year, the forecasters expect a massive economic recovery. This raises the intriguing question: Will inflation rates also rise? And will this force the central banks to step on the brakes sooner than expected?

Klaus Meitinger 835

Feb 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Economic boom in 2021?

Dear Readers, Over the past month, we have virtually visited a dozen annual outlooks from banks and asset managers. The quintessence is clear: In the coming year, the forecasters expect a massive economic recovery.

Klaus Meitinger 887

Feb 02, 2021 News from the editorial

Seismograph remains relaxed.

Dear Readers, Disappointments over slow vaccine deliveries and, above all, fears of hedge fund bankruptcies had put pressure on the stock markets at the end of last week. As announced, Oliver Schlick, who as managing director of Secaro GmbH distils investment recommendations from the calculations of the capital market seismograph, analysed how the individual variables of the seismograph reacted to this. The question was: Should the turbulence of the last few days be taken seriously or not?

Klaus Meitinger 886

Jan 29, 2021 News from the editorial

Further development of the private-wealth stock market indicator.

Dear Readers, According to the ifo Business Cycle Clock, the German economy is moving back towards recession territory (Chart 1 below). The ifo Business Climate fell again in January, and business expectations in industry also declined again after a recovery in December. As a result, the ifo economic traffic light jumped back to "red" (chart 2). However, in view of the renewed loosening of the economy, this comes as no surprise. For the private-wealth stock market indicator, this is not (yet) a…

Klaus Meitinger 1021

Jan 19, 2021 News from the editorial

Reality check: Seismograph passes litmus test.

Dear Readers, For more than two years now, we have been regularly informing you about developments on the capital market seismograph. Our aim is to help you better assess opportunities and risks on the stock market. At the same time, we use it to derive short-term changes in the equity ratio in the private wealth stock market indicator.

Klaus Meitinger 898

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Exchanges & Markets - where do DAX and S&P 500 stand in a year? Part 2

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to…

Klaus Meitinger 999

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Exchanges & Markets - where do DAX and S&P 500 stand in a year? Part 1

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to…

Klaus Meitinger 962

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Stock exchanges & markets - how are the prices of oil, gold, the Bitcoin and the US dollar developing?

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. Questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympic Games have already been answered. Now the experts are turning their attention to the capital markets - how are the prices of oil, gold, the Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro…

Klaus Meitinger 920

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

How is unemployment in Germany developing? Are the autonomous cars coming soon and will the 2021 Olympics be cancelled?

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future and the German labour market have already been answered.

Klaus Meitinger 914

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Italy's debt problem and the future of the European Union

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next Federal Chancellor have already been answered. This time the focus is on Italy's debt problem and Europe

Klaus Meitinger 893

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Who will win the elections next year Germany?

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. Who will become Federal Chancellor in autumn 2021 - do you give a probability?

Klaus Meitinger 826

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Elections, economy, securities markets - courageous answers to 15 tricky questions

Who will win the US presidential election? Who will become chancellor? Is Italy threatened with a debt cut? Where will the DAX be quoted in August 2021? The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. In the coming days, private wealth will successively publish the professionals' forecasts.

Klaus Meitinger 894

Aug 27, 2020 News from the editorial

Stabilisation of the economy supports stock market.

Dear Readers, In August, the ifo business climate index rose again. Particularly in the manufacturing sector, which is important for the private-wealth stock market indicator, the mood has now improved considerably. Although many industrial companies still assess their economic situation as poor, the outlook for the coming months is much better (chart below). The ifo researchers explain that order books are filling up again. This is encouraging. What is interesting for investors is that the…

Klaus Meitinger 1019

Aug 18, 2020 News from the editorial

The weather forecast of the capital market seismograph - still sunny

The current news draws a fragile picture. The infection figures in Europe are rising significantly, government travel warnings are increasing, the conflict between the USA and China continues to smoulder, in Belarus the population is taking to the streets and the Turkish lira is plummeting. Could this be a harbinger of a difficult phase on the stock market? "Although the markets are currently facing headwinds from politics, the economic data is falling, but many market participants are…

Klaus Meitinger 1039

Jul 29, 2020 News from the editorial

private-wealth stock market indicator increases equity ratio.

Dear Readers, There's never been anything like this before. In just five months, Germany's economy has gone from near-boom to near-boom as a result of the downturn and recession and back into the upswing quadrant of the ifo business cycle clock (chart below). A cycle in fast motion. According to the diction of the Munich-based economic researchers, the recession has thus ended and a new upswing has been established. This has consequences for the positioning of the private wealth stock market…

Klaus Meitinger 982

Jul 17, 2020 Valuable Information from the Network

Robeco study: Why factor investing and sustainability go together perfectly

How can sustainable investments best be implemented? This is one of the questions that Robeco's experts have looked into in their latest study, "Sustainability Inside". While they identify some disadvantages of investing via passive vehicles, they conclude that factor investing is the best way to integrate sustainability into the investment process. The view is increasingly gaining ground among investors that the consideration of sustainable aspects in financial investments has more advantages…

Gerd Hübner 1320

Jul 13, 2020 Valuable Information from the Network

Quo vadis office market?

Due to the corona-related recession and the trend towards the home office, many experts expect difficult times for the commercial property market. Christian Kunz from TSO Capital, which specialises in investments in commercial properties, takes a close look at the US market.

Gerd Hübner 1262

Jun 19, 2020 Valuable Information from the Network

The European selection

A very smart investment idea has just been published by two equity experts from Aberdeen Standard Investments. Ben Ritchie, Head of Europan Equities and Jamie Mills O'Brien, Investment Manager, asked themselves what a European selection of eleven listed companies could look like. As in football, the aim was not to identify the best individual companies, but to put together a team that would work as well as possible. The portfolio should be equipped with defensive qualities needed to master…

Klaus Meitinger 1172

Jun 08, 2020 News from The Lerbach Round Table

Inspiration - Ideas for equity investment

In their search for promising securities, the experts of the Lerbach round currently distinguish between three categories with different risk and return patterns. The first, comparatively defensive category includes shares of companies whose prices are 15 to 20 percent below their pre-crisis level and which are very likely to return to their 2019 turnover level in 2022 - they are an anchor of stability for a portfolio.

Klaus Meitinger 1080

May 28, 2020 Valuable Information from the Network

The future of money.

Opinions are divided on Bitcoin. For some, the crypto currency is digital gold - an alternative store of value in times of monetary dilution. They are fascinated by the fact that Bitcoin is designed as an "ultra-hard" asset. Critics, on the other hand, find it simply scary to trust an asset that they cannot "touch" and whose technology they do not fully understand. We think: Under certain circumstances, Bitcoin could become one of the most interesting investment opportunities in the coming…

Klaus Meitinger 1165

May 27, 2020 News from the editorial

The first step out of the economic slump.

Dear Readers, the mood among German companies has recovered somewhat after the catastrophic previous months. The ifo business climate index rose again in May. Although companies assessed the current situation as even worse than in April, expectations for the coming six months have improved. However, this was not to be expected any differently in view of the questions on the ifo Business Climate.

Klaus Meitinger 940

May 19, 2020 News from the editorial

Sentiment indicators give a false picture.

Dear Readers, The economic expectations surveyed by the Leibnitz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) have just improved significantly. Specifically, the economic expectations rose from 28.2 to 51 points in May, bringing the index back to the level of spring 2015 and thus significantly above the pre-Corona prices. The current ultra-expansive monetary policy and the government rescue measures would have a positive impact. On balance, the experts surveyed by the ZEW are confident that the…

Klaus Meitinger 978

May 11, 2020 News from the editorial

Seismograph signals renewed improvement in the stock market climate.

The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected - investors can invest without hesitation. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - buying stocks is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates…

Klaus Meitinger 1044

May 05, 2020 News from the editorial

The seismograph indicates further relaxation.

The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - investing is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates a turbulent market with negative expectation.…

Klaus Meitinger 907

Apr 25, 2020 News from the editorial

Dramatic crash of the ifo indicator.

Dear Readers, In April, the ifo business climate index plunged to its lowest level ever measured. The fact that the current mood among German companies is catastrophic is not surprising given the global shutdowns. More critically, expectations for the coming six months have also continued to fall massively. In plain language, this means that even though the current situation is already extremely bleak, companies do not see any improvement even on a six-month horizon, but expect it to…

Klaus Meitinger 934

Apr 14, 2020 News from the editorial

Avoiding insolvency - a guide for business managers in a crisis.

Short-time working allowance, tax liquidity support, financial assistance - the federal government or the EU not only provides money for entrepreneurs in need. An overall concept should prevent that actually healthy companies have to file for insolvency. Five points are particularly important here!

Yvonne Döbler 941

Apr 07, 2020 Valuable Information from the Network

In the face of the pandemic - strategies for family businesses.

Professor Tom Rüsen of the Witten Institute for Family Research (WiFU) examines how successful entrepreneurial families have reacted to crisis situations in the past His analysis provides assistance in dealing with current challenges Family businesses are characterized by the close connection between ownership and management of the company. This enables them to define and implement measures for dealing with the crisis situation very quickly. Defensive measures are aimed at limiting the damage.…

Klaus Meitinger 1125

Apr 06, 2020 News from The Lerbach Round Table

The crisis strategy of the professionals.

The members of the Lerbach Competence Group initiated by private wealth and Robeco are responsible for the investment strategy of 40 family offices, private banks and asset management companies. This is how the professionals position themselves on the stock markets after the rollercoaster ride. We asked the professionals what a balanced portfolio of liquid asset classes of an average investor willing to take risks should look like in the long term. And how they would currently run such a…

Klaus Meitinger 1049

Apr 03, 2020 Valuable Information from the Network

Model check

For 16 years, the stock market indicator of private wealth has been providing valuable information for investors in the German stock market. Since many members of our network have asked about the background to this model, we are happy to explain how we work. The editorial staff regularly informs its readers about the current signals of the in-house stock market indicator. What is behind this model?

Klaus Meitinger 1247

Mar 25, 2020 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph does not yet give the all-clear.

Dear Readers, despite the recent significant recovery in share prices, the signals from the capital market seismograph remain negative. As you know, the seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedging) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest). "The probability of negative turbulence has recently risen dynamically and has now reached levels last seen during…

Klaus Meitinger 238

Mar 23, 2020 News from the editorial

ifo Institute: Corona will cost Germany hundreds of billions of euros

The Munich ifo Institute has now added to this. The coronavirus will cause hundreds of billions of euros in production losses for Germany's economy, cause short-time work and unemployment to skyrocket, and put a considerable strain on the national budget. "The costs will probably exceed everything known from economic crises or natural disasters in Germany in recent decades," said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. "Depending on the scenario, the economy will shrink by 7.2 to 20.6 percentage points.…

Klaus Meitinger 858

Mar 23, 2020 News from the editorial

How deep will the recession get?

After economists have only revised their growth forecasts downwards in small steps in recent weeks, the Munich-based ifo Institute has now driven a stake that roughly shows what is in store for the German economy in the coming weeks (https://www.ifo.de/node/53925). The ifo Institute is currently presenting two alternative forecasts. A "very, very favourable" scenario with minor production restrictions would result in a 1.5 percent decline in real national product. However, this does not take…

Klaus Meitinger 878

Mar 10, 2020 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph reduces equity exposure.

Dear readers, The dramatic development of the last few days and the massive increase in volatility had massively increased the probability of negative turbulence in the capital market seismograph. "This has resulted in a change in positioning on the stock market," Oliver Schlick informs. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedging) and "red" (turbulent…

Klaus Meitinger 926

Mar 09, 2020 News from the editorial

The next domino.

While the stock market is in panic mode, the losses in corporate bonds are comparatively small. This could change. We still remember an analysis by Pictet in October 2018, when the Swiss took a close look at the corporate bond market and wrote: "Beware oft the fallen angels. The chain of argumentation went like this: Many large investors are only allowed to buy so-called investment grade bonds - i.e. securities with good or very good credit ratings. Their rating must be at least BBB (from the…

Klaus Meitinger 824

Mar 04, 2020 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph stays cool in the corona panic.

Dear readers, While the stock markets were shaken by viral cramps, the capital market seismograph remains invested. "We recalculated every day, and the sum of the "good" probabilities green and yellow have moved only minimally from their highs. Accordingly, the probability of negative turbulence increased only minimally despite the panic on the stock markets," Oliver Schlick informs. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy),…

Klaus Meitinger 776

Feb 26, 2020 News from the editorial

Indicators (still) defy the coronavirus.

Dear readers, In February, business expectations in the industrial sector continued to improve (blue line in the chart below). The ifo economic traffic light also remained in the "green" range. The trend reversal in the industrial sector announced two months ago thus appears to be still intact. The German economy seems to be unimpressed by the development around the corona virus, writes the ifo Institute. However, it is doubtful that this will remain so. This is because the recent spread of the…

Klaus Meitinger 737

Feb 23, 2020 News from the editorial

The price of CO2 will rise - investors will benefit.

How much is nature worth? This question was asked by private wealth in the 01/19 issue, when analyst Lawson Steele of Berenberg Bank predicted that demand for pollution rights would significantly exceed supply in the future. And that therefore the price for a CO2 certificate would have to rise sharply. In recent months, however, the price of CO2 has fallen. This could be an opportunity for investors.

Gerd Hübner 673

Feb 06, 2020 News from the editorial

The future of money

Time and again, wealthy people ask themselves the question about the long-term stability of our monetary system. After all, the euro, dollar, franc and yen are all so-called FIAT money - artificially created means of payment with no value of their own, supported solely by trust in the issuing state. In his article "The end of fiat money" from DB Research's Concept 2030 study, Jim Reid has reflected on our fiat money system and comes to some disturbing conclusions. Jim Reid, DB Research,…

Klaus Meitinger 789

Feb 04, 2020 News from the editorial

Bitcoin - the better gold?

In times of monetary policy experiments, there is growing interest in "hard" investments, the supply of which cannot be expanded at will and which therefore serve particularly well as a store of value. Today, the most widely used classic alternative to paper currencies is gold. Manuel Andersch, Senior Currency Analyst of the Bayrische Landesbank, calculates in his study "Megatrend Digitalization - will Bitcoin Gold outpace Gold" that Bitcoin will soon be "harder" than gold. The possible…

Klaus Meitinger 773

Jan 22, 2020 Valuable Information from the Network

Game Changer Robotaxi - fascinating perspectives for investors

According to a study by UBS, eleven million self-driving taxis are expected to be in use worldwide in 2030. By 2040, that figure will rise to 60 million. The impact on various industries and stock markets will be considerable.

Silke Lauenstein 898

Jan 19, 2020 News from the editorial

The intrepid forecast 2035: What equity investors can expect in terms of future returns.

At the beginning of the year, investors are keenly interested in twelve-month forecasts in order to find their investment favourites among the stock markets. "But that doesn't make sense," criticizes Norbert Keimling, head of capital market research at StarCapital, "only those who know how to assess the long-term prospects can identify particularly promising markets. The turn of the year is the wedding of the augurs. The most popular question to them is: How will the DAX perform in the coming…

Klaus Meitinger 792

Jan 17, 2020 News from the editorial

Seismograph convinces in 2019

Dear readers, When Oliver Schlick, former Chief Investment Officer of Bayerninvest, and his team led by Professor Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich, translated the turbulence probabilities developed by the capital market seismograph into a stock allocation scheme, the professional pursued an ambitious goal. "The systematic change of the stock weighting analogous to the results of the seismograph should not only be a kind of insurance, i.e. strongly reduce losses in sustained…

Klaus Meitinger 734

Dec 19, 2019 News from the editorial

Buy signal in the private-wealth stock market indicator.

Dear readers, The Ifo business climate continued to rise in December. Of particular interest here is the development of business expectations in industry, which we regard as an indicator of sentiment for the global economy and the stock markets. This expectation component has just delivered a buy signal. In October, expectations in the top echelons of industry had improved for the first time after a long period of decline. This was followed by a further slight increase in November and now the…

Klaus Meitinger 762

Dec 13, 2019 News from The Lerbach Round Table

UK election - positive signal for British equities

Dear Readers, Boris Johnson's Conservative Party won the absolute majority in the British Parliament. This has made one of the core risks of recent months more predictable. The House of Commons will now quickly adopt the necessary laws for Britain's withdrawal from the EU on 31 January. What comes after 31 January 2020, however, is less clear. This is when tough and probably long trade agreements with the EU begin. The Lerbach Round is therefore also split when it comes to the impact of the…

Klaus Meitinger 889

Dec 09, 2019 News from the editorial

Relaxed stock market mood.

Dear Readers, of the capital market seismographs continues to signal calmness. "In the last two weeks, the sum of the "good" probabilities has even increased by more than 90 percent. The seismograph therefore still suggests a maximum weighting of the equity quota," explains Oliver Schlick. As you know, the seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with…

Klaus Meitinger 738

Nov 26, 2019 News from the editorial

Buy-signal ante portas.

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate improved slightly in November. Of particular interest was the development of business expectations for the economy as a whole and for industry as a whole, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets. The expectation component of the overall economy has now risen for the second time in succession. In the manufacturing sector, however, it stagnated after an increase in October. The ifo traffic light has thus changed…

Klaus Meitinger 738

Oct 26, 2019 Valuable Information from the Network

Columbia Threadneedle Webinar for Absolute Return Funds on 12.11.2019

Dear private wealth community, On 12 November, fund manager Alasdair Ross will present his Enhanced Money Market strategy, the Threadneedle (Lux) Global Investment Grade Credit Opportunities Fund, in a webinar. The Absolute Return Fund seeks positive returns above money market levels by investing in Columbia Threadneedle's best investment ideas in the global investment grade universe and combining them with long / short credit default swaps. The strategy follows our proven approach to credit…

Moritz Eckes 1131

Sep 19, 2019 News from the editorial

Thunderclouds have dissipated.

Dear Readers, In recent weeks, the thunderclouds measured by capital market seismographs have gradually dissipated over the capital markets. "The sum of the "good" probabilities is now over 70 percent again." In combination with the sudden increase in the probability of calm markets, this ensures that the seismograph now considers a short-term significant increase in the share quota to be appropriate," explains Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph with his…

Klaus Meitinger 812

Aug 26, 2019 News from the editorial

Germany's industry in recession

Dear Readers, The ifo-Institut writes that the worries among German corporate leaders are getting deeper and deeper. In August, the ifo business climate finally fell significantly once again and has now reached its lowest level since November 2012. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, a similar pessimism was last observed in the crisis year 2009. It is particularly problematic that the massive decline apparently affects all sectors.…

Klaus Meitinger 962

Aug 20, 2019 News from the editorial

Seismograph gives a thunderstorm warning.

Dear Readers, We have just received the new estimate of the team around Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph. Since our last report to you, the likelihood of negative turbulence has quickly built up, although the absolute level remains within bounds. The speed at which thick black clouds form in order to remain in the seismograph's image is more of a concern here. "This is problematic and must be taken seriously," says Oliver Schlick and continues: "The…

Klaus Meitinger 976

Jul 30, 2019 News from the editorial

On the brink of recession

Dear Readers, The mood on the German executive floors is becoming uncomfortable, writes the ifo Institute. In fact, the ifo business climate continued to decline in July. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, the business climate indicator is even in free fall. Especially the export suffers (graphic 1).

Klaus Meitinger 974

Jul 01, 2019 News from the editorial

The seismograph points to a turbulent but positive market development.

Dear Readers, We have just received the new estimate of the team around Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph. As you know, it distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest). Currently, the probability of a calm, positive stock market ("green, buy or hold") is only 27 percent. However, the…

Klaus Meitinger 965

Jun 25, 2019 News from the editorial

No improvement in sight.

Dear Readers, In June, the ifo business climate fell further to its lowest level since November 2014. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, pessimism increased again after a brief improvement in sentiment in May. As in recent months, favourable assessments in the service sector and in construction are still supporting the overall climate. However, industry is already in recession today and is ensuring that the ifo traffic light…

Moritz Eckes 876

ifo VerarbeitendesGewerbe Mar2019andLegend

May 25, 2019 News from the editorial

Between hope and sorrow.

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate rose in March for the first time in six months. This, at first glance, good news, however, is put into perspective when looking at the individual areas. The service sector, trade and construction were responsible for the increase. In industry, which is regarded as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, the decline continued steeply (Chart 1). The expectations of entrepreneurs in the manufacturing sector have now reached their…

Klaus Meitinger 1157

Feb 25, 2019 News from the editorial

No all-clear for the economy

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate continued to fall in February. The worries in the German executive floors are increasing, according to the Munich economic researchers. The results of the ifo survey and other indicators would point to economic growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019. After a minus of 0.2 percent in the third quarter and a black zero in the fourth quarter of 2018, this means that the German economy is stagnating. It can get even worse in the future. As you know,…

Klaus Meitinger 1284

Feb 11, 2019 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph becomes more positive, economic outlook remains critical

Dear Readers, "The probability distribution of future stock market developments has just fundamentally changed. We are still a long way from the positive figures that prevailed until autumn 2018. But the sharp decline in the probability of negative turbulence suggests an increase in the equity quota," analyses Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market =…

Klaus Meitinger 1248

Jan 28, 2019 News from the editorial

Economic risks intensifying

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate continued to decline significantly in January. In the German executive floors, the Munich conuncture researchers write, the restlessness is growing. In fact, all components of the ifo business climate declined. The collapse of expectations for the coming six months was particularly drastic in the retail and manufacturing sectors. As you know, we are monitoring the data from the export-oriented industry very closely because they allow conclusions to be…

Klaus Meitinger 1335

Jan 07, 2019 News from the editorial

2019 begins in crisis mode

Dear Readers, "the monthly comparison of the probabilities of the capital market seismograph reflects a crisis situation on the stock markets," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest). Last…

Moritz Eckes 1353

Dec 28, 2018 News from the editorial

In the year 2019 sowing will take place.

Dear Readers, it's been a turbulent year. What began in an exuberant mood - economic and profit expectations were massively revised upwards at the beginning of 2018 - now ends in minor. Economists are cutting their growth forecasts, stock prices are falling. Investors look to the New Year with concern. One of the best leading indicators signaled this trend reversal in good time. In February 2018, the expectation index for the ifo business climate in German industry fell for the third time in…

Moritz Eckes 1263

Dec 11, 2018 News from the editorial

The economy continues to cloud over.

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate in November did not reverse the trend. The most important component for us - the industry's expectations for the future - has continued to decline. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again. Red traffic light values make a contraction of the economy more likely than an expansion.

Klaus Meitinger 1315

Nov 20, 2018 News from the editorial

The weather is getting a little more relaxed.

Dear Readers, "the thunderstorm front, which led us to completely dismantle our shareholding two weeks ago, has now dissipated somewhat," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Klaus Meitinger 1430

Oct 27, 2018 News from the editorial

Stock market indicator remains negative.

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate is pointing downwards again in October. The most important component for us - the expectations in industry for the future - also fell back after a twofold increase. After a brief recovery, the mood in the export sector has also been dampened. The ifo traffic light has thus switched from "green" to "yellow". At yellow traffic lights, the ifo Institute assumes that there is a high degree of uncertainty about the economic regime.

Klaus Meitinger 1145

Oct 23, 2018 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph warns of stock market storm.

Dear Readers, "The pace at which the probability of a bear market increases is worrying," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Klaus Meitinger 1425

Oct 17, 2018 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph says "sell."

Dear Readers, The new data of the capital market seismograph reach us just now. "The climate shift on the capital market, which has been the subject of discussion for quite some time, is now reflected in the probabilities of the seismograph and leads to the recommendation of a strong reduction in the share quota", Oliver Schlick informs, "the advice is to reduce the weight of shares considerably." As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet…

Klaus Meitinger 1324

Oct 09, 2018 Valuable Information from the Network

Italy's crisis - whether the new government will endure is crucial

Dear Readers, we have read a lot about the topic "Italy" in the last days. Lucas Daalder, Robeco's chief investment strategist, wrote a very good summary. Of particular interest is his analysis of the distribution of Italy's public debt. Contrary to what is often said, Italy is obviously not primarily indebted to its own countrymen. Major creditors are foreigners (35 per cent) and central banks (just under 20 per cent) This underlines Italy's potential for blackmail in the negotiations with the…

Special Report from our Partner ROBECO 1370

6 die auswirkungen auf die kursentwicklung am aktienmarkt sind mittelfristig

Oct 04, 2018 News from The Lerbach Round Table

ECB strategy is positive for the stock market.

Dear Readers, The European Central Bank has given concrete form to its medium-term policy guideline. It will continue its bond purchase program until September 2018, but will reduce the monthly purchase volume from currently 60 to 30 billion. However, the Lerbach Round does not see this as a fundamental turnaround in monetary policy. Instead, it interprets the ECB's plan as a signal that monetary policy will remain very loose.

Klaus Meitinger & das Expertenteam der Lerbacher Runde 1436

Oct 04, 2018 News from The Lerbach Round Table

Lerbacher Runde urges caution.

The slight easing in the trade conflict between the USA and the European Union makes it less likely that Donald Trump - as originally announced - will now be able to increase customs duties on cars from the EU in the near future. However, according to the Lerbach Round Table, the trade issue is far from being off the table for investors. In the dispute between the USA and China there are still no signs of rapprochement. Investors - according to the professionals - should therefore be cautious…

Klaus Meitinger 1420