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Columbia Threadneedle Webinar for Absolute Return Funds on 12.11.2019

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Dear private wealth community,

On 12 November, fund manager Alasdair Ross will present his Enhanced Money Market strategy, the Threadneedle (Lux) Global Investment Grade Credit Opportunities Fund, in a webinar. The Absolute Return Fund seeks positive returns above money market levels by investing in Columbia Threadneedle's best investment ideas in the global investment grade universe and combining them with long / short credit default swaps. The strategy follows our proven approach to credit portfolio management.

Learn from Alasdair Ross how you can generate positive returns regardless of market direction. With an absolute return approach, investors are well positioned to normalize the still extremely low interest rates and bond yields in many places. Please use the registration form to register for the webinar.

Date: Tuesday, 12 November 2019
Time: 10 a.m
. Duration: 45 minutes

Registration: https://www.anmelden.org/globaligopps_nov2019/

We are looking forward to meeting you online!
Best regards,

Moritz Eckes
-Editor-

Thunderclouds have dissipated.

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Dear Readers,

In recent weeks, the thunderclouds measured by capital market seismographs have gradually dissipated over the capital markets. "The sum of the "good" probabilities is now over 70 percent again." In combination with the sudden increase in the probability of calm markets, this ensures that the seismograph now considers a short-term significant increase in the share quota to be appropriate," explains Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph with his team.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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Germany's industry in recession

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Dear Readers,

ifo Indizien Summary August2019The ifo-Institut writes that the worries among German corporate leaders are getting deeper and deeper. In August, the ifo business climate finally fell significantly once again and has now reached its lowest level since November 2012. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, a similar pessimism was last observed in the crisis year 2009. It is particularly problematic that the massive decline apparently affects all sectors. According to the ifo Institute, none of Germany's key industries showed any signs of improvement.

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Seismograph gives a thunderstorm warning.

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Dear Readers,

We have just received the new estimate of the team around Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph. Since our last report to you, the likelihood of negative turbulence has quickly built up, although the absolute level remains within bounds. The speed at which thick black clouds form in order to remain in the seismograph's image is more of a concern here. "This is problematic and must be taken seriously," says Oliver Schlick and continues: "The seismograph's new positioning is defensive weighting."

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On the brink of recession

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Dear Readers,

ifo export jun19The mood on the German executive floors is becoming uncomfortable, writes the ifo Institute. In fact, the ifo business climate continued to decline in July. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, the business climate indicator is even in free fall. Especially the export suffers (graphic 1).

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The seismograph points to a turbulent but positive market development.

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Dear Readers,

We have just received the new estimate of the team around Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph. As you know, it distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Currently, the probability of a calm, positive stock market ("green, buy or hold") is only 27 percent. However, the probability of a turbulent, volatile market with a positive trend ("yellow") has risen to 34 percent. The probability of negative turbulence reaches 39 percent. "Of particular interest is the increase in the probability of positive-turbulent markets. In particular, the significant decline in money market rates due to the ECB's and the FED's tendency to lower interest rates made a major contribution to this. Overall, the probability of "favorable" markets thus rises by more than 60 percent," explains Oliver Schlick and concludes: "Despite the continuing weak fundamental economic data, a comparatively high equity ratio is derived from the seismograph's values. But expect strong fluctuations."

Conclusion:

The private-wealth stock market indicator has been out of the stock market since the end of February 2018. This was triggered by the three-fold decline in ifo business expectations in the industry and the simultaneous very high valuation of the stock markets. Since then, the indicator has proposed a minimum weighting of equities of 0 - 30 percent of the individually planned equity component.

For the short-term positioning within this corridor we use the results of the capital market seismograph. Since the probability for a bear market is below 40 percent, the proposed equity ratio remains at 25 percent.

yours

Klaus Meitinger

Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.

No improvement in sight.

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ifoAmpel Jun2019Dear Readers,

In June, the ifo business climate fell further to its lowest level since November 2014. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, pessimism increased again after a brief improvement in sentiment in May. As in recent months, favourable assessments in the service sector and in construction are still supporting the overall climate. However, industry is already in recession today and is ensuring that the ifo traffic light remains on red (chart below).

The ifo traffic light indicates the monthly probability of an expansive economic development. Red traffic light values mean: The probability of expansion is less than one third. This points to a contraction of the economy in the future.

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Between hope and sorrow.

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Dear Readers,

ifo VerarbeitendesGewerbe Mar2019andLegendThe ifo business climate rose in March for the first time in six months. This, at first glance, good news, however, is put into perspective when looking at the individual areas. The service sector, trade and construction were responsible for the increase. In industry, which is regarded as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, the decline continued steeply (Chart 1). The expectations of entrepreneurs in the manufacturing sector have now reached their lowest level since November 2012.

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