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Editorial

Our own stock market indicator delivered a sell signal at the end of February. As you know, it is not a matter of forecasting trend reversals on the stock markets exactly..... read more

The economy continues to cloud over.

on 11 December 2018

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate in November did not reverse the trend. The most important component for us - the industry's expectations for the future - has continued to decline. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again. Red traffic light values make a contraction of the economy more likely than an expansion.

The weather is getting a little more relaxed.

on 20 November 2018

Dear Readers, "the thunderstorm front, which led us to completely dismantle our shareholding two weeks ago, has now dissipated somewhat," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest,...

Stock market indicator remains negative.

on 27 October 2018

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate is pointing downwards again in October. The most important component for us - the expectations in industry for the future - also fell back after a twofold increase. After a brief recovery, the mood in the export sector has also been dampened. The ifo traffic light has thus switched from "green" to "yellow". At yellow traffic lights, the ifo Institute assumes...

Capital market seismograph warns of stock market storm.

on 23 October 2018

Dear Readers, "The pace at which the probability of a bear market increases is worrying," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with...

Capital market seismograph says "sell."

on 17 October 2018

Dear Readers, The new data of the capital market seismograph reach us just now. "The climate shift on the capital market, which has been the subject of discussion for quite some time, is now reflected in the probabilities of the seismograph and leads to the recommendation of a strong reduction in the share quota", Oliver Schlick informs, "the advice is to reduce the weight of shares considerably....

Italy's crisis - whether the new government will endure is crucial

Dear Readers, we have read a lot about the topic "Italy" in the last days. Lucas Daalder, Robeco's chief investment strategist, wrote a very good summary. Of particular interest is his analysis of the distribution of Italy's public debt. Contrary to what is often said, Italy is obviously not primarily indebted to its own countrymen. Major creditors are foreigners (35 per cent) and central banks (j...

ECB strategy is positive for the stock market.

Dear Readers, The European Central Bank has given concrete form to its medium-term policy guideline. It will continue its bond purchase program until September 2018, but will reduce the monthly purchase volume from currently 60 to 30 billion. However, the Lerbach Round does not see this as a fundamental turnaround in monetary policy. Instead, it interprets the ECB's plan as a signal that monetary...

Lerbacher Runde urges caution.

The slight easing in the trade conflict between the USA and the European Union makes it less likely that Donald Trump - as originally announced - will now be able to increase customs duties on cars from the EU in the near future. However, according to the Lerbach Round Table, the trade issue is far from being off the table for investors. In the dispute between the USA and China there are still no...

Ifo-Klima again calls for caution.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, The Munich-based ifo Institute presented the August results of its survey on the business climate and business expectations. According to the report, the mood in the German economy has deteriorated noticeably recently. The important expectation component in the manufacturing industry has even fallen below its long-term average. This puts the industry back in the downturn quadrant of...

Fulminant recovery in the Ifo climate.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, A month ago there was still reason to fear that the German economy would fall into a downturn scenario in the autumn. The current results of the Ifo business climate index have impressively wiped this fear aside.

Economy still ok - but a political thriller threatens.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, Following its rapid rise in recent months, Germany's most important economic indicator has entered the reverse gear. Although the ifo business climate remained at a high level in November, expectations in industry declined slightly. Obviously, the discussions about Donald Trump's future trade policy have already slightly dampened export expectations.

A conciliatory end to the year

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, The ifo economic indicator ended 2016 with an optimistic trend. After the decline in November, business expectations in industry improved again. Export expectations, which are so important for Germany, also increased in view of the falling euro exchange rate and the resulting improvement in price competitiveness.

"Positive signals from Wall Street."

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, The team led by Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich has just sent us the latest data from the capital market seismograph. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative...

Full steam ahead.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, The Ifo business cycle indicator has made up for last month's decline. It is noteworthy that companies are now assessing their current situation better than they have been for more than five years. There is no doubt about it: Germany is in the midst of a veritable economic boom. The fact that expectations for the coming six months have improved even further in this situation is asto...

In the middle of a boom.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, The mood in German companies is getting better and better. The ifo business climate for industry has now reached its highest level since July 2011. Expectations for the coming six months are even more optimistic than in February. And export expectations are also increasing. All in all, as the graphs attached show, the German economy is

Germany continues to boom.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, The current business situation in German companies is currently assessed as more positive than it has been since mid-2011. In the construction industry, the assessment of the situation even rose to its highest level since reunification. The results of the surveys on the ifo business climate index in April now point to a significant acceleration in real economic growth in areas above...

That's as good as it gets.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, The ifo Institute reports new records in business climate, business situation and business expectations. "In the German executive floors," write the researchers themselves, "there is high spirits". A glance at the ifo economic clock shows that the German economy has never been so deep in boom territory before. It goes without saying that in this situation, the ifo traffic light will...

"Blue Skies on Wall Street."

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a positive and calm market on Wall Street. This has not changed in the forecast for July either. The seismograph, a kind of early warning system for equity investors, sees no clouds on the horizon despite the price losses of recent days. As you kno...

"Not a cloud in the Wall Street sky."

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a quiet, rising market on Wall Street. Now the indicator has set a new record. The early warning system for equity investors has never been as positive as it was in October. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US eq...

"Wall Street forecast continues bullish."

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, Also in October, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the TU Munich gives the green light for equity investments in the USA. Since January, the seismograph has been signaling a quiet market on Wall Street that is rising in line with the trend. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market =...

« »

The economy continues to cloud over.

on 11 December 2018

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate in November did not reverse the trend. The most important component for us - the industry's expectations for the future - has continued to decline. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again. Red traffic light values make a contraction of the economy more likely than an expansion.

The weather is getting a little more relaxed.

on 20 November 2018

Dear Readers, "the thunderstorm front, which led us to completely dismantle our shareholding two weeks ago, has now dissipated somewhat," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest,...

Stock market indicator remains negative.

on 27 October 2018

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate is pointing downwards again in October. The most important component for us - the expectations in industry for the future - also fell back after a twofold increase. After a brief recovery, the mood in the export sector has also been dampened. The ifo traffic light has thus switched from "green" to "yellow". At yellow traffic lights, the ifo Institute assumes...

Capital market seismograph warns of stock market storm.

on 23 October 2018

Dear Readers, "The pace at which the probability of a bear market increases is worrying," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with...

Capital market seismograph says "sell."

on 17 October 2018

Dear Readers, The new data of the capital market seismograph reach us just now. "The climate shift on the capital market, which has been the subject of discussion for quite some time, is now reflected in the probabilities of the seismograph and leads to the recommendation of a strong reduction in the share quota", Oliver Schlick informs, "the advice is to reduce the weight of shares considerably....

Italy's crisis - whether the new government will endure is crucial

Dear Readers, we have read a lot about the topic "Italy" in the last days. Lucas Daalder, Robeco's chief investment strategist, wrote a very good summary. Of particular interest is his analysis of the distribution of Italy's public debt. Contrary to what is often said, Italy is obviously not primarily indebted to its own countrymen. Major creditors are foreigners (35 per cent) and central banks (j...

ECB strategy is positive for the stock market.

Dear Readers, The European Central Bank has given concrete form to its medium-term policy guideline. It will continue its bond purchase program until September 2018, but will reduce the monthly purchase volume from currently 60 to 30 billion. However, the Lerbach Round does not see this as a fundamental turnaround in monetary policy. Instead, it interprets the ECB's plan as a signal that monetary...

Lerbacher Runde urges caution.

The slight easing in the trade conflict between the USA and the European Union makes it less likely that Donald Trump - as originally announced - will now be able to increase customs duties on cars from the EU in the near future. However, according to the Lerbach Round Table, the trade issue is far from being off the table for investors. In the dispute between the USA and China there are still no...

Ifo-Klima again calls for caution.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, The Munich-based ifo Institute presented the August results of its survey on the business climate and business expectations. According to the report, the mood in the German economy has deteriorated noticeably recently. The important expectation component in the manufacturing industry has even fallen below its long-term average. This puts the industry back in the downturn quadrant of...

Fulminant recovery in the Ifo climate.

on 02 October 2018

Dear Readers, A month ago there was still reason to fear that the German economy would fall into a downturn scenario in the autumn. The current results of the Ifo business climate index have impressively wiped this fear aside.

« »

how to earn it

New start in Brazil.
11 Dec 2018 - Sonderveröffentlichung: LIDE Deutschland GmbHNew start in Brazil.

Network. "The hope of a neo-liberal renewal of the Brazilian economy is linked to the new President Jair Bolsonaro," says Christian Hirmer, President  [ ... ]

read more...
The big jump.
11 Dec 2018 - Yvonne DöblerThe big jump.

Expansion. The Swabian family business Schweizer Electronic has an exciting past behind it. And an even more exciting future ahead. "Over the next ten [ ... ]

read more...
From the niche into the world.
11 Dec 2018 - Miriam ZerbelFrom the niche into the world.

Entrepreneurship. Six years ago, private wealth had told the fascinating story of Roland Arnold, a passionate family entrepreneur. His motivation was  [ ... ]

read more...
The survivor.
11 Dec 2018 - Gerd HübnerThe survivor.

Innovation. Over the past 30 years, NorCom has had to overcome many difficult situations. But every time, founder Viggo Nordbakk succeeded in reinvent [ ... ]

read more...
Art. Dope.
11 Dec 2018 - Sabine HolzknechtArt. Dope.

Revolution. Within a few years, two Italians turned an idea into a company worth billions. And could thus solve one of the most urgent problems of the [ ... ]

read more...
On the wrong track.
30 Sep 2018 - Gerd HübnerOn the wrong track.

Future risks. The dissatisfaction of considerable sections of the population gave a boost to populist currents in the Western world. The Lerbach Rou [ ... ]

read more...
"Where we are is up."
30 Sep 2018 - Philipp Wente

Record player. Jochen Räke sells a product that should no longer exist in the digital world. But because his record players are among the best and  [ ... ]

read more...
The dealer scare.
30 Sep 2018 - Günter KastThe dealer scare.

Bicycles. Canyon Bicycles GmbH from Koblenz is the most successful direct seller of high-quality bicycles - not only in Germany, but throughout Euro [ ... ]

read more...
With the wind.
30 Sep 2018 - Yvonne DöblerWith the wind.

Boat builder. Constructing a boat is a big entrepreneurial risk for a small company. Development work consumes a lot of time and capital. And succes [ ... ]

read more...

how to invest it

Second hand, first class.
11 Dec 2018 - Sonderveröffentlichung: Matador Partners Group AGSecond hand, first class.

Secondary private equity. Because private equity funds have been generating double-digit returns for years, this asset class is finding more and mor [ ... ]

read more...
The dead live longer.
11 Dec 2018 - Gerd HübnerThe dead live longer.

Investment strategy. The stock market is an indicator of the value of an economy. If this is halved within a year, something serious must have happene [ ... ]

read more...
Truffle hunter.
11 Dec 2018 - Sonderveröffentlichung: Kriton Immobilien GmbHTruffle hunter.

Real estate. Prices on the real estate market have been rising massively for the past five years. As a result, yields - so-called cap rates - have fal [ ... ]

read more...
Stop! Stop!
11 Dec 2018 - Dr. Ludger WeßStop! Stop!

Medical technology. What would it be like if there were a way to stop disease processes directly in the individual cells and thus possibly end the suf [ ... ]

read more...
Smart City - smart system.
11 Dec 2018 - Sonderveröffentlichung: Pictet & Cie (Europe) S.A.Smart City - smart system.

Urbanization. More and more people are moving to the cities. In order for these to remain worth living, extensive investments are necessary. "This wil [ ... ]

read more...
Beautiful new financial world.
11 Dec 2018 - Sonderveröffentlichung: Robeco DeutschlandBeautiful new financial world.

FinTech. Many industries have already been turned upside down by digitisation. Patrick Lemmens and Jeroen van Oerle are convinced that it is now the t [ ... ]

read more...
Let's have a look.
11 Dec 2018 - Klaus MeitingerLet's have a look.

Panel of experts. The uncertainty on the capital markets is greater than ever before. Investors urgently need orientation. The Lerbach round gives ans [ ... ]

read more...
Who comes too early, ...
11 Dec 2018 - Paul GreerWho comes too early, ...

Emerging market equities were among the losers in 2018, and according to Paul Greer, Fidelity, they will continue to struggle in the coming months a [ ... ]

read more...
If not now, when?
11 Dec 2018 - Silke LauensteinIf not now, when?

Emerging market equities are now very attractive after the sometimes sharp price declines, says Michael Keppler of Keppler Asset Management Inc. New [ ... ]

read more...

how to live it

Our little farm.
11 Dec 2018 - Antje Annika SingerOur little farm.


Plant-it-yourself. The start-up BerlinGreen wants to make the simple cultivation of salads and herbs at home or in the office easy. It thus brings the [ ... ]

read more...
The digitized entrepreneur family.
11 Dec 2018 - Prof. Dr. Tom A. Rüsen, Dr. Anne Katarina HeiderThe digitized entrepreneur family.

From the research workshop. Why does digitization become a success story for one family business? Und with the other one she only makes frightening  [ ... ]

read more...
Be brave.
11 Dec 2018 - Sabine HolzknechtBe brave.

Civil courage. The activist Jody Williams succeeded, which the United Nations was unable to do, in persuading the international community to renounce  [ ... ]

read more...
A new anchor for families.
11 Dec 2018 - Klaus MeitingerA new anchor for families.

Entrepreneur families. After the sale of the family business, sooner or later the question of meaning arises:  Wer are we now? Was do we want to b [ ... ]

read more...
Time for museums.
11 Dec 2018 - Jan LehmhausTime for museums.

Exhibition. The watch industry has always proudly presented its products in its own museums. Recently, a few spectacular new collections have been add [ ... ]

read more...
What do you mean, forever?
11 Dec 2018 - Sonderveröffentlichung: Merck Finck PrivatbankiersWhat do you mean, forever?

Foundation management. Foundations are established on a permanent basis. Trotzdem they often invest as if they only had a short investment horizon. [ ... ]

read more...
White gold.
11 Dec 2018 - Dr. Günter KastWhite gold.

Adventure. Through the heliski pioneer Leo Steiner, the former gold digger settlement Atlin in the far north of British Columbia became a place of lon [ ... ]

read more...
Spiritual entertainment.
11 Dec 2018 - Andreas HeißSpiritual entertainment.

To produce a high-percentage digestive yourself is the wonderful conclusion of an evening among friends. Sommelier Andreas hot, owner of the Genuss-Ak [ ... ]

read more...
The Megatrend Megatrends.
11 Dec 2018 - Sonia MarinThe Megatrend Megatrends.

Investment strategy. Megatrends are fascinating as an investment idea because the respective story sounds so convincing. In order for this to actually [ ... ]

read more...

Opinionleader

The future of the energy revolution.
11 Dec 2018 - Martin FaulstichThe future of the energy revolution.

"The energy revolution is a huge challenge," explains Martin Faulstich, until 2016 Chairman of the [ ... ]

read more...
"Now it's enough."
01 Oct 2018 - Dr. Peter Bofinger

The economist Peter Bofinger has always defended the monetary policy of the ECB. Why Mario Draghi  [ ... ]

read more...
Entrepreneurs must act now.
01 Oct 2018 - Florian KleinEntrepreneurs must act now.

Many companies in Germany are facing huge challenges. "Our scenario analysis shows how decision-ma [ ... ]

read more...
How families solve conflicts.
01 Oct 2018 - Sonderveröffentlichung: Professor Dr. Heiko Kleve (Wittener Institut für Familienunternehmen) How families solve conflicts.

From the research workshop. Entrepreneur families create rules and statutes that regulate life tog [ ... ]

read more...
"The cobalt boom is justified."
01 Oct 2018 - Abi Mukhta

"The high prices for cobalt and lithium reflect the current supply-demand situation," says Abid Mu [ ... ]

read more...
"It's a cobalt hype."
01 Oct 2018 - Christoph Eibl

"The prices for cobalt and lithium are currently significantly exaggerated. Viele Suppliers want t [ ... ]

read more...
Museums must reinvent themselves.
01 Oct 2018 - Dr. Florian Mercker

Should there be free admission to state museums or not? Florian Mercker, private-wealth art expert,  [ ... ]

read more...
Complicated new world.
01 Oct 2018 - Richard Smith-BinghamComplicated new world.

Richard Smith-Bingham, Director EMEA of the Global Risk Center at Marsh & McLennan, believes c [ ... ]

read more...
No end of the boom in sight.
01 Oct 2018 - Jochen MöbertNo end of the boom in sight.

"In the German metropolises, demand for living space will exceed supply for even longer," says Joc [ ... ]

read more...

A letter from

Billionaires move the world forward.
11 Dec 2018 - Caroline Kuhnert

A letter from ... Caroline Kuhnert is responsible for high net worth individuals at UBS. Sie expla [ ... ]

read more...
Everyone has to be able to participate.
02 Oct 2018 - Prof. Marcel Fratzscher

A letter from ... Professor Marcel Fratzscher. The head of the DIW sees the current justice debate a [ ... ]

read more...
Protective layers.
02 Oct 2018 - Dr. Walther Michl

A letter from ... Dr. Walther Michl. The Academic Council at the Chair of Public Law and Europe [ ... ]

read more...
Become wiser.
02 Oct 2018 - Bernd Kolb

A letter from ... Bernd Kolb, who founded the Club of Marrakesh to give impulses for a better world. [ ... ]

read more...
"Is passive investing really better than active in...
02 Oct 2018 - Camille Thommes

A letter from... Camille Thommes. The Director General of the Association of the Luxembourg Fun [ ... ]

read more...
Greek tragedy.
02 Oct 2018 - Jochen Felsenheimer

Jochen Felsenheimer is Managing Director of XAIA Investment and reflects on the long-term consequenc [ ... ]

read more...
"I'm worried already."
02 Oct 2018 - Wolfgang Bosbach

A letter from ... Wolfgang Bosbach. The controversial member of the Bundestag reflects on politics,  [ ... ]

read more...
The end of sound fiscal policy.
02 Oct 2018 - Christian Jasperneite

A letter from... Christian Jasperneite; The chief strategist von M.M. Warburg & Co. warns tha [ ... ]

read more...
Economy and honor!
02 Oct 2018 - Rudolf X. Ruter.

A letter from ... Rudolf X. Ruter. The sustainability and corporate governance expert is convinced t [ ... ]

read more...

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