The beginning of a new era.
We are actually hesitant to use terms like "new era" or "new epoch". But at the beginning of 2022, it seems appropriate to us - because in the future, the conditions for investors will change fundamentally.
The last decade was marked by a boom in all asset classes. Real estate prices doubled. The MSCI World, which aggregates the shares of companies from industrialised countries, climbed by 250 per cent, and the Nasdaq 100 by as much as 580 per cent. A long period of interest rate cuts into negative territory led to a flood of investment capital flowing out of interest rate investments and into stocks and real estate. And because the price of living rose less than 15 percent from mid-2011 to mid-2021, the purchasing power of wealth increased dramatically. That will not be repeated. Because now inflation is back, and at least an interest rate turnaround light is on the agenda.
Things will get really exciting in the future. If inflation rates remain high and the central banks do not act, even more money will flee into scarce stocks and real estate. If those in charge apply the brakes too sharply, a sharp slump looms. Only if the ECB and Fed manage a smooth exit from their extremely expansionary monetary policy will we have a relaxed 2022 ahead of us.
The second big change, of course, has to do with climate change. It is becoming increasingly clear that we can no longer achieve the 1.5 degree target. But it is also clear that policymakers have embarked on the "Road to Zero". The more obvious it becomes that even the two-degree target can only be achieved with great effort, the more restrictive the measures are likely to become. For entrepreneurs and investors, this poses risks - but also enormous opportunities. Experts estimate that the global investment required by 2050 in renewable energies alone will be up to 150 trillion dollars. That is equivalent to almost two times the world's entire national product. It is imperative that selected companies profit from this enormous demand. This is where it is important to position oneself. Our conclusion: index investments are out, selection is in.
The turnaround in interest rates and the fight against climate change will define the next decade - a new era is beginning. If you want to invest successfully, you have to rethink now. To provide you with guidance in these exciting times, we have dedicated many articles in this issue to these two topics. We hope you enjoy reading them.
Klaus Meitinger Moritz Eckes