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  • ifo Index May2020
    May 27, 2020 News from the editorial

    The first step out of the economic slump.

    Dear Readers, the mood among German companies has recovered somewhat after the catastrophic previous months. The ifo business climate index rose again in May. Although companies assessed the current situation as even worse than in April, expectations for the coming six months have improved. However, this was not to be expected any differently in view of the questions on the ifo Business Climate.
    Klaus Meitinger 197
  • Logo pw2
    May 19, 2020 News from the editorial

    Sentiment indicators give a false picture.

    Dear Readers, The economic expectations surveyed by the Leibnitz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) have just improved significantly. Specifically, the economic expectations rose from 28.2 to 51 points in May, bringing the index back to the level of spring 2015 and thus significantly above the pre-Corona prices. The current ultra-expansive monetary policy and the government rescue measures would have a positive impact. On balance, the experts surveyed by the ZEW are confident that the…
    Klaus Meitinger 221
  • Kapitalmarkt Seismograf 1
    May 11, 2020 News from the editorial

    Seismograph signals renewed improvement in the stock market climate.

    The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected - investors can invest without hesitation. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - buying stocks is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates…
    Klaus Meitinger 251
  • Kapitalmarkt Seismograf 2
    May 05, 2020 News from the editorial

    The seismograph indicates further relaxation.

    The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - investing is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates a turbulent market with negative expectation.…
    Klaus Meitinger 252
  • Ifo Index Apr2020
    Apr 25, 2020 News from the editorial

    Dramatic crash of the ifo indicator.

    Dear Readers, In April, the ifo business climate index plunged to its lowest level ever measured. The fact that the current mood among German companies is catastrophic is not surprising given the global shutdowns. More critically, expectations for the coming six months have also continued to fall massively. In plain language, this means that even though the current situation is already extremely bleak, companies do not see any improvement even on a six-month horizon, but expect it to…
    Klaus Meitinger 272
  • iStock Inso1004929340
    Apr 14, 2020 News from the editorial

    Avoiding insolvency - a guide for business managers in a crisis.

    Short-time working allowance, tax liquidity support, financial assistance - the federal government or the EU not only provides money for entrepreneurs in need. An overall concept should prevent that actually healthy companies have to file for insolvency. Five points are particularly important here!
    Yvonne Döbler 284
  • Default Image
    Mar 23, 2020 News from the editorial

    ifo Institute: Corona will cost Germany hundreds of billions of euros

    The Munich ifo Institute has now added to this. The coronavirus will cause hundreds of billions of euros in production losses for Germany's economy, cause short-time work and unemployment to skyrocket, and put a considerable strain on the national budget. "The costs will probably exceed everything known from economic crises or natural disasters in Germany in recent decades," said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. "Depending on the scenario, the economy will shrink by 7.2 to 20.6 percentage points.…
    Klaus Meitinger 321
  • Börsenindikator
    Mar 23, 2020 News from the editorial

    How deep will the recession get?

    After economists have only revised their growth forecasts downwards in small steps in recent weeks, the Munich-based ifo Institute has now driven a stake that roughly shows what is in store for the German economy in the coming weeks (https://www.ifo.de/node/53925). The ifo Institute is currently presenting two alternative forecasts. A "very, very favourable" scenario with minor production restrictions would result in a 1.5 percent decline in real national product. However, this does not take…
    Klaus Meitinger 344
  • Kapitalmarkt Seismograf 2
    Mar 10, 2020 News from the editorial

    Capital market seismograph reduces equity exposure.

    Dear readers, The dramatic development of the last few days and the massive increase in volatility had massively increased the probability of negative turbulence in the capital market seismograph. "This has resulted in a change in positioning on the stock market," Oliver Schlick informs. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedging) and "red" (turbulent…
    Klaus Meitinger 330
  • iStock 863883990
    Mar 09, 2020 News from the editorial

    The next domino.

    While the stock market is in panic mode, the losses in corporate bonds are comparatively small. This could change. We still remember an analysis by Pictet in October 2018, when the Swiss took a close look at the corporate bond market and wrote: "Beware oft the fallen angels. The chain of argumentation went like this: Many large investors are only allowed to buy so-called investment grade bonds - i.e. securities with good or very good credit ratings. Their rating must be at least BBB (from the…
    Klaus Meitinger 293
  • Kapitalmarkt Seismograf 1
    Mar 04, 2020 News from the editorial

    Capital market seismograph stays cool in the corona panic.

    Dear readers, While the stock markets were shaken by viral cramps, the capital market seismograph remains invested. "We recalculated every day, and the sum of the "good" probabilities green and yellow have moved only minimally from their highs. Accordingly, the probability of negative turbulence increased only minimally despite the panic on the stock markets," Oliver Schlick informs. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy),…
    Klaus Meitinger 288
  • ifo konjunkturampel Feb2020
    Feb 26, 2020 News from the editorial

    Indicators (still) defy the coronavirus.

    Dear readers, In February, business expectations in the industrial sector continued to improve (blue line in the chart below). The ifo economic traffic light also remained in the "green" range. The trend reversal in the industrial sector announced two months ago thus appears to be still intact. The German economy seems to be unimpressed by the development around the corona virus, writes the ifo Institute. However, it is doubtful that this will remain so. This is because the recent spread of the…
    Klaus Meitinger 266
  • iStock 1190916514 online
    Feb 23, 2020 News from the editorial

    The price of CO2 will rise - investors will benefit.

    How much is nature worth? This question was asked by private wealth in the 01/19 issue, when analyst Lawson Steele of Berenberg Bank predicted that demand for pollution rights would significantly exceed supply in the future. And that therefore the price for a CO2 certificate would have to rise sharply. In recent months, however, the price of CO2 has fallen. This could be an opportunity for investors.
    Gerd Hübner 246
  • IStock_picture_currencies
    Feb 06, 2020 News from the editorial

    The future of money

    Time and again, wealthy people ask themselves the question about the long-term stability of our monetary system. After all, the euro, dollar, franc and yen are all so-called FIAT money - artificially created means of payment with no value of their own, supported solely by trust in the issuing state. In his article "The end of fiat money" from DB Research's Concept 2030 study, Jim Reid has reflected on our fiat money system and comes to some disturbing conclusions. Jim Reid, DB Research,…
    Klaus Meitinger 296
  • iStock 905105464
    Feb 04, 2020 News from the editorial

    Bitcoin - the better gold?

    In times of monetary policy experiments, there is growing interest in "hard" investments, the supply of which cannot be expanded at will and which therefore serve particularly well as a store of value. Today, the most widely used classic alternative to paper currencies is gold. Manuel Andersch, Senior Currency Analyst of the Bayrische Landesbank, calculates in his study "Megatrend Digitalization - will Bitcoin Gold outpace Gold" that Bitcoin will soon be "harder" than gold. The possible…
    Klaus Meitinger 208
  • StarCapitalImage
    Jan 19, 2020 News from the editorial

    The intrepid forecast 2035: What equity investors can expect in terms of future returns.

    At the beginning of the year, investors are keenly interested in twelve-month forecasts in order to find their investment favourites among the stock markets. "But that doesn't make sense," criticizes Norbert Keimling, head of capital market research at StarCapital, "only those who know how to assess the long-term prospects can identify particularly promising markets. The turn of the year is the wedding of the augurs. The most popular question to them is: How will the DAX perform in the coming…
    Klaus Meitinger 197
  • Seismogaph Dec2019
    Jan 17, 2020 News from the editorial

    Seismograph convinces in 2019

    Dear readers, When Oliver Schlick, former Chief Investment Officer of Bayerninvest, and his team led by Professor Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich, translated the turbulence probabilities developed by the capital market seismograph into a stock allocation scheme, the professional pursued an ambitious goal. "The systematic change of the stock weighting analogous to the results of the seismograph should not only be a kind of insurance, i.e. strongly reduce losses in sustained…
    Klaus Meitinger 187
  • ifo Uhr Dec2019
    Dec 19, 2019 News from the editorial

    Buy signal in the private-wealth stock market indicator.

    Dear readers, The Ifo business climate continued to rise in December. Of particular interest here is the development of business expectations in industry, which we regard as an indicator of sentiment for the global economy and the stock markets. This expectation component has just delivered a buy signal. In October, expectations in the top echelons of industry had improved for the first time after a long period of decline. This was followed by a further slight increase in November and now the…
    Klaus Meitinger 204
  • Default Image
    Dec 09, 2019 News from the editorial

    Relaxed stock market mood.

    Dear Readers, of the capital market seismographs continues to signal calmness. "In the last two weeks, the sum of the "good" probabilities has even increased by more than 90 percent. The seismograph therefore still suggests a maximum weighting of the equity quota," explains Oliver Schlick. As you know, the seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with…
    Klaus Meitinger 212
  • ifo ampel nov19
    Nov 26, 2019 News from the editorial

    Buy-signal ante portas.

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate improved slightly in November. Of particular interest was the development of business expectations for the economy as a whole and for industry as a whole, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets. The expectation component of the overall economy has now risen for the second time in succession. In the manufacturing sector, however, it stagnated after an increase in October. The ifo traffic light has thus changed…
    Klaus Meitinger 217
  • Default Image
    Sep 19, 2019 News from the editorial

    Thunderclouds have dissipated.

    Dear Readers, In recent weeks, the thunderclouds measured by capital market seismographs have gradually dissipated over the capital markets. "The sum of the "good" probabilities is now over 70 percent again." In combination with the sudden increase in the probability of calm markets, this ensures that the seismograph now considers a short-term significant increase in the share quota to be appropriate," explains Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph with his…
    Klaus Meitinger 284
  • ifo Indizien Summary August2019
    Aug 26, 2019 News from the editorial

    Germany's industry in recession

    Dear Readers, The ifo-Institut writes that the worries among German corporate leaders are getting deeper and deeper. In August, the ifo business climate finally fell significantly once again and has now reached its lowest level since November 2012. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, a similar pessimism was last observed in the crisis year 2009. It is particularly problematic that the massive decline apparently affects all sectors.…
    Klaus Meitinger 433
  • Default Image
    Aug 20, 2019 News from the editorial

    Seismograph gives a thunderstorm warning.

    Dear Readers, We have just received the new estimate of the team around Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph. Since our last report to you, the likelihood of negative turbulence has quickly built up, although the absolute level remains within bounds. The speed at which thick black clouds form in order to remain in the seismograph's image is more of a concern here. "This is problematic and must be taken seriously," says Oliver Schlick and continues: "The…
    Klaus Meitinger 398
  • ifo export jun19
    Jul 30, 2019 News from the editorial

    On the brink of recession

    Dear Readers, The mood on the German executive floors is becoming uncomfortable, writes the ifo Institute. In fact, the ifo business climate continued to decline in July. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, the business climate indicator is even in free fall. Especially the export suffers (graphic 1).
    Klaus Meitinger 449
  • Default Image
    Jul 01, 2019 News from the editorial

    The seismograph points to a turbulent but positive market development.

    Dear Readers, We have just received the new estimate of the team around Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph. As you know, it distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest). Currently, the probability of a calm, positive stock market ("green, buy or hold") is only 27 percent. However, the…
    Klaus Meitinger 452
  • ifoAmpel Jun2019
    Jun 25, 2019 News from the editorial

    No improvement in sight.

    Dear Readers, In June, the ifo business climate fell further to its lowest level since November 2014. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, pessimism increased again after a brief improvement in sentiment in May. As in recent months, favourable assessments in the service sector and in construction are still supporting the overall climate. However, industry is already in recession today and is ensuring that the ifo traffic light…
    Moritz Eckes 295
  • ifo VerarbeitendesGewerbe Mar2019andLegend
    May 25, 2019 News from the editorial

    Between hope and sorrow.

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate rose in March for the first time in six months. This, at first glance, good news, however, is put into perspective when looking at the individual areas. The service sector, trade and construction were responsible for the increase. In industry, which is regarded as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, the decline continued steeply (Chart 1). The expectations of entrepreneurs in the manufacturing sector have now reached their…
    Klaus Meitinger 570
  • Ifo index Feb2019
    Feb 25, 2019 News from the editorial

    No all-clear for the economy

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate continued to fall in February. The worries in the German executive floors are increasing, according to the Munich economic researchers. The results of the ifo survey and other indicators would point to economic growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019. After a minus of 0.2 percent in the third quarter and a black zero in the fourth quarter of 2018, this means that the German economy is stagnating. It can get even worse in the future. As you know,…
    Klaus Meitinger 752
  • Ifo Index Januar2019
    Feb 11, 2019 News from the editorial

    Capital market seismograph becomes more positive, economic outlook remains critical

    Dear Readers, "The probability distribution of future stock market developments has just fundamentally changed. We are still a long way from the positive figures that prevailed until autumn 2018. But the sharp decline in the probability of negative turbulence suggests an increase in the equity quota," analyses Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market =…
    Klaus Meitinger 722
  • ifo index Jan2019
    Jan 28, 2019 News from the editorial

    Economic risks intensifying

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate continued to decline significantly in January. In the German executive floors, the Munich conuncture researchers write, the restlessness is growing. In fact, all components of the ifo business climate declined. The collapse of expectations for the coming six months was particularly drastic in the retail and manufacturing sectors. As you know, we are monitoring the data from the export-oriented industry very closely because they allow conclusions to be…
    Klaus Meitinger 751
  • seismograph Dec2018
    Jan 07, 2019 News from the editorial

    2019 begins in crisis mode

    Dear Readers, "the monthly comparison of the probabilities of the capital market seismograph reflects a crisis situation on the stock markets," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest). Last…
    Moritz Eckes 825
  • Default Image
    Dec 28, 2018 News from the editorial

    In the year 2019 sowing will take place.

    Dear Readers, it's been a turbulent year. What began in an exuberant mood - economic and profit expectations were massively revised upwards at the beginning of 2018 - now ends in minor. Economists are cutting their growth forecasts, stock prices are falling. Investors look to the New Year with concern. One of the best leading indicators signaled this trend reversal in good time. In February 2018, the expectation index for the ifo business climate in German industry fell for the third time in…
    Moritz Eckes 783
  • ifo ampel 11 2018
    Dec 11, 2018 News from the editorial

    The economy continues to cloud over.

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate in November did not reverse the trend. The most important component for us - the industry's expectations for the future - has continued to decline. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again. Red traffic light values make a contraction of the economy more likely than an expansion.
    Klaus Meitinger 760
  • Default Image
    Nov 20, 2018 News from the editorial

    The weather is getting a little more relaxed.

    Dear Readers, "the thunderstorm front, which led us to completely dismantle our shareholding two weeks ago, has now dissipated somewhat," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).
    Klaus Meitinger 886
  • ifo index oct18
    Oct 27, 2018 News from the editorial

    Stock market indicator remains negative.

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate is pointing downwards again in October. The most important component for us - the expectations in industry for the future - also fell back after a twofold increase. After a brief recovery, the mood in the export sector has also been dampened. The ifo traffic light has thus switched from "green" to "yellow". At yellow traffic lights, the ifo Institute assumes that there is a high degree of uncertainty about the economic regime.
    Klaus Meitinger 583
  • Default Image
    Oct 23, 2018 News from the editorial

    Capital market seismograph warns of stock market storm.

    Dear Readers, "The pace at which the probability of a bear market increases is worrying," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).
    Klaus Meitinger 873
  • Default Image
    Oct 17, 2018 News from the editorial

    Capital market seismograph says "sell."

    Dear Readers, The new data of the capital market seismograph reach us just now. "The climate shift on the capital market, which has been the subject of discussion for quite some time, is now reflected in the probabilities of the seismograph and leads to the recommendation of a strong reduction in the share quota", Oliver Schlick informs, "the advice is to reduce the weight of shares considerably." As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet…
    Klaus Meitinger 810
  • thumb ifo Index August 2016
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    Ifo-Klima again calls for caution.

    Dear Readers, The Munich-based ifo Institute presented the August results of its survey on the business climate and business expectations. According to the report, the mood in the German economy has deteriorated noticeably recently. The important expectation component in the manufacturing industry has even fallen below its long-term average. This puts the industry back in the downturn quadrant of the ifo watch. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again (graphics below).
    Klaus Meitinger 794
  • thumb ifo index sept 2016
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    Fulminant recovery in the Ifo climate.

    Dear Readers, A month ago there was still reason to fear that the German economy would fall into a downturn scenario in the autumn. The current results of the Ifo business climate index have impressively wiped this fear aside.
    Klaus Meitinger 432
  • thumb ifo konjunkturindex Nov2016
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    Economy still ok - but a political thriller threatens.

    Dear Readers, Following its rapid rise in recent months, Germany's most important economic indicator has entered the reverse gear. Although the ifo business climate remained at a high level in November, expectations in industry declined slightly. Obviously, the discussions about Donald Trump's future trade policy have already slightly dampened export expectations.
    Klaus Meitinger 683
  • thumb ifo uhr Dez2016
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    A conciliatory end to the year

    Dear Readers, The ifo economic indicator ended 2016 with an optimistic trend. After the decline in November, business expectations in industry improved again. Export expectations, which are so important for Germany, also increased in view of the falling euro exchange rate and the resulting improvement in price competitiveness.
    Klaus Meitinger 640
  • Default Image
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Positive signals from Wall Street."

    Dear Readers, The team led by Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich has just sent us the latest data from the capital market seismograph. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).
    Klaus Meitinger 554
  • thumb ifo Index Februar2017
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    Full steam ahead.

    Dear Readers, The Ifo business cycle indicator has made up for last month's decline. It is noteworthy that companies are now assessing their current situation better than they have been for more than five years. There is no doubt about it: Germany is in the midst of a veritable economic boom. The fact that expectations for the coming six months have improved even further in this situation is astonishing. At some point in the coming months there will be a turnaround in expectations. Because if…
    Klaus Meitinger 563
  • thumb ifo Index march2017
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    In the middle of a boom.

    Dear Readers, The mood in German companies is getting better and better. The ifo business climate for industry has now reached its highest level since July 2011. Expectations for the coming six months are even more optimistic than in February. And export expectations are also increasing. All in all, as the graphs attached show, the German economy is
    Klaus Meitinger 410
  • thumb ifo uhr april2017
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    Germany continues to boom.

    Dear Readers, The current business situation in German companies is currently assessed as more positive than it has been since mid-2011. In the construction industry, the assessment of the situation even rose to its highest level since reunification. The results of the surveys on the ifo business climate index in April now point to a significant acceleration in real economic growth in areas above the two percent mark. This is also underlined by the ifo traffic light. The signal there is clearly…
    Klaus Meitinger 276
  • thumb ifo index juni2017
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    That's as good as it gets.

    Dear Readers, The ifo Institute reports new records in business climate, business situation and business expectations. "In the German executive floors," write the researchers themselves, "there is high spirits". A glance at the ifo economic clock shows that the German economy has never been so deep in boom territory before. It goes without saying that in this situation, the ifo traffic light will also keep to "dark green" (graphs below). The boom in the German economy is progressing so briskly.…
    Klaus Meitinger 276
  • Default Image
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Blue Skies on Wall Street."

    Dear Readers, Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a positive and calm market on Wall Street. This has not changed in the forecast for July either. The seismograph, a kind of early warning system for equity investors, sees no clouds on the horizon despite the price losses of recent days. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market =…
    Klaus Meitinger 273
  • Seismograph Sept 17
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Not a cloud in the Wall Street sky."

    Dear Readers, Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a quiet, rising market on Wall Street. Now the indicator has set a new record. The early warning system for equity investors has never been as positive as it was in October. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation =…
    Klaus Meitinger 298
  • Seismograph Sept 17
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Wall Street forecast continues bullish."

    Dear Readers, Also in October, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the TU Munich gives the green light for equity investments in the USA. Since January, the seismograph has been signaling a quiet market on Wall Street that is rising in line with the trend. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red"…
    Klaus Meitinger 279
  • ifo index 11 2017
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Year of investment 2018 - it's going to be exciting."

    Dear Readers, Investors have had an extremely successful year. And the overwhelming majority of capital market experts expect share prices to rise again next year. In doing so, they refer to the extraordinarily positive economic development in the world. However, this expectation of sustained high economic momentum is likely to be reflected at least to a large extent in the high valuations on the stock markets. For investors it is therefore crucial: Will it be even better in the future than…
    Klaus Meitinger 252
  • Seismograph Sept 17
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Wall Street celebrates the New Year."

    Dear Readers, the capital market seismograph of the team of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst (TU Munich) starts the year 2018, as he ended the year 2017 - in a buying mood. The stock market barometer continues to give the green light for equity investments in the USA. For a year now, the seismograph has been signaling a quiet market on Wall Street that is rising in line with the trend. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy),…
    Klaus Meitinger 246
  • ifoindex Jan2018
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Is the showdown starting?"

    Dear Readers, the situation is getting worse. For the second time in a row, business expectations in industry have declined. Three consecutive declines would trigger a sell signal in the private wealth exchange model. We are therefore eagerly awaiting the results of the ifo economic survey in February. This clouding of future prospects has been somewhat lost in the general euphoria. Finally, the business climate index as a whole rose again to the record level last reached in November.
    Klaus Meitinger 279
  • Default Image
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Black Clouds on Wall Street - Selling."

    Dear Readers, A week ago the team around Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst and Oliver Schlick wrote to us. The capital market seismograph is still giving the green light for equity investments: "But that can change very quickly now. We have our finger on the sales button", Today is the day. "The probability of a bear market has increased significantly. This has triggered a sell signal in our model. The model recommends significantly reducing the current equity quota," says Oliver Schlick.
    Klaus Meitinger 257
  • Default Image
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Finger on sales button."

    Dear Readers, until Monday, the sky over Wall Street was still blue. Then dark clouds came up incredibly fast. The team led by Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst and Oliver Schlick therefore recalculated the capital market seismograph using current data;
    Klaus Meitinger 227
  • ifo index feb2018
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "We're out of here."

    Dear Readers, the private-wealth stock market indicator delivered at the end of February ein Verkaufssignal . As you know, this is not about forecasting Trendwenden exactly on the stock markets. However, we are trying to find out when the relationship between opportunity and risk changes when investing in equities. The logic: Wenn stocks are valued low and the economic trend improves, the probability is high that the stock market will develop positively in the long term. If, on the other hand,…
    Klaus Meitinger 253
  • ifo index March18
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "Downward trend in the economy intensifies".

    Dear Readers, The future prospects for the German economy continue to cloud over. The Munich-based ifo institute reports the fourth consecutive decline in business expectations. Expectations declined particularly sharply in the manufacturing sector, which has always been a good early indicator of trends in the global economy due to its export-driven nature in the past. Obviously, the threat of protectionism is now putting considerable pressure on the mood.
    Klaus Meitinger 279
  • Seismograph Feb2018
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "April weather on Wall Street."

    Dear Readers, Since last month, the values of the capital market seismograph have hardly changed. As you know, the team around Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst and Oliver Schlick distinguishes between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectations = invest, but with hedging) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectations = do not invest). In the past four weeks, the seismograph's values went up and down in a short…
    Klaus Meitinger 264
  • ifo ampel april2018
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "The climate in the German economy continues to cool down."

    Dear Readers, the high spirits on the German executive floors are evaporating, writes the Munich-based ifo Institute. The economic researchers report the fifth consecutive decline in business expectations. The ifo traffic light also consistently shows a deep "red" (chart below). As the assessment of the current business situation remains at a very high level, expectations and the situation now diverge extremely widely. In the future, either the situation will deteriorate significantly - or…
    Klaus Meitinger 258
  • Default Image
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    "The storm has died down."

    Dear Readers, a little more than two weeks ago, the model of the capital market seismograph had suggested cautiously increasing share quotas again. The current evaluation of the team around Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst and Oliver Schlick confirms this. "The storm has passed," Oliver Schlick interprets. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest,…
    Klaus Meitinger 253
  • ifo index may18
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    ifo traffic light continues to show "red".

    Dear Readers, The downward trend in the ifo business climate has stopped, the Munich economic researchers write. In fact, the overall index remained unchanged for the first time in May after five consecutive declines. However, this is not a signal for an all-clear. Because the most important component - the expectations directed towards the future - continue to fall; In the manufacturing sector - which has always been an indicator for the trend in the global economy due to its heavy reliance on…
    Klaus Meitinger 327
  • ifo index june2018
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    ifo traffic light continues to show "red".

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate in June does not give the all-clear. The most important component for us - expectations for the future in industry - could not improve after six consecutive declines. Although the ifo economic clock is still in the boom quadrant, it is moving in the direction of a downturn. And the ifo traffic light continues to be set to "red. It shows the monthly probability of an expansionary phase of the economy. Green traffic light values signal probabilities of more…
    Klaus Meitinger 214
  • ifo index jul18
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    ifo Indicator of Economic Sentiment continues to decline.

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate in July did not bring a turnaround. The most important component for us - the industry's expectations for the future - has now declined eight times in a row. The fact that the ifo economic clock is still in the boom quadrant is due to the historically high values at the beginning of the year. Step by step, however, this indicator is now moving in the direction of the downturn. For the fifth month in a row, the ifo traffic light has also been set to "red".…
    Klaus Meitinger 287
  • ifo index august2018
    Oct 02, 2018 News from the editorial

    Comeback of economic optimism.

    Dear Readers, The ifo business climate in July brought a massive improvement. The most important component for us - expectations for the future in industry - has risen significantly again after eight consecutive declines. Expectations have now even returned to the level of January 2018. With this brilliant rise, the danger of the German economy soon slipping into the downturn quadrant of the ifo economic clock seems to be averted. And the ifo traffic light is now back on "green" as well. Green…
    Klaus Meitinger 313

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