The intrepid forecast 2035: What equity investors can expect in terms of future returns.
At the beginning of the year, investors are keenly interested in twelve-month forecasts in order to find their investment favourites among the stock markets. "But that doesn't make sense," criticizes Norbert Keimling, head of capital market research at StarCapital, "only those who know how to assess the long-term prospects can identify particularly promising markets.
The turn of the year is the wedding of the augurs. The most popular question to them is: How will the DAX perform in the coming year? Norbert Keimling, Head of Capital Market Research at StarCapital, has summarized the forecasts of the leading financial institutions. "The mean value of the DAX estimates for the end of 2020 is 13,999 points, the highest and lowest expectations are 15,000 and 12,500 points respectively.
Seismograph convinces in 2019
When Oliver Schlick, former Chief Investment Officer of Bayerninvest, and his team led by Professor Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich, translated the turbulence probabilities developed by the capital market seismograph into a stock allocation scheme, the professional pursued an ambitious goal. "The systematic change of the stock weighting analogous to the results of the seismograph should not only be a kind of insurance, i.e. strongly reduce losses in sustained downward movements, but at the same time ensure that upward phases on the stock markets are followed," explains the professional.
Buy signal in the private-wealth stock market indicator.
The Ifo business climate continued to rise in December. Of particular interest here is the development of business expectations in industry, which we regard as an indicator of sentiment for the global economy and the stock markets. This expectation component has just delivered a buy signal.
In October, expectations in the top echelons of industry had improved for the first time after a long period of decline. This was followed by a further slight increase in November and now the third consecutive increase in December. The ifo economic clock still positions the German economy in the downturn quadrant. But the trend is now pointing upwards again. And the ifo traffic light switches to "green" (graphs below).
Relaxed stock market mood.
of the capital market seismographs continues to signal calmness. "In the last two weeks, the sum of the "good" probabilities has even increased by more than 90 percent. The seismograph therefore still suggests a maximum weighting of the equity quota," explains Oliver Schlick.
As you know, the seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).