News from the editorial


Between hoping and care.

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Sehr gehrte Readers and Readers,

das ifo-Geschäftsklima has in März for first time since six months s sales sales rise . This, at first view good news relative but at glance at the individual areas responsible für the rise goods services sector 2C trade and construction.In the industry, the as Smood indicator für the world economy and the Börsen applies, ging es further section bergab (graph1). the expectations of the entrepreneurs in the processing industry have now arrived on the lowes value since November 2012 .

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No all-clear for the economy

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Ifo index Feb2019Dear Readers,

The ifo business climate continued to fall in February. The worries in the German executive floors are increasing, according to the Munich economic researchers. The results of the ifo survey and other indicators would point to economic growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019. After a minus of 0.2 percent in the third quarter and a black zero in the fourth quarter of 2018, this means that the German economy is stagnating.

It can get even worse in the future. As you know, we are closely monitoring the expectations of the 9000 entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute. These point further down. Pessimism is increasing across the board. This is particularly pronounced in the industry, which is so important for Germany. According to the ifo economic clock, the German economy has thus established itself in the downturn quadrant. The ifo traffic light is still on "red" (attached graphs)

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Capital market seismograph becomes more positive, economic outlook remains critical

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Ifo Index Januar2019Dear Readers,

"The probability distribution of future stock market developments has just fundamentally changed. We are still a long way from the positive figures that prevailed until autumn 2018. But the sharp decline in the probability of negative turbulence suggests an increase in the equity quota," analyses Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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Economic risks intensifying

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ifo index Jan2019Dear Readers,

The ifo business climate continued to decline significantly in January. In the German executive floors, the Munich conuncture researchers write, the restlessness is growing.

In fact, all components of the ifo business climate declined. The collapse of expectations for the coming six months was particularly drastic in the retail and manufacturing sectors. As you know, we are monitoring the data from the export-oriented industry very closely because they allow conclusions to be drawn about the strength of the global economy. The current results - the industry is now as pessimistic as it was during the euro crisis in 2012 - give an idea of increased economic risks.

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2019 begins in crisis mode

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Dear Readers,

seismograph Dec2018"the monthly comparison of the probabilities of the capital market seismograph reflects a crisis situation on the stock markets," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Last month, the likelihood of a bear market (red) had risen continuously from 47 percent to 81 percent. The probability of a calm, positive stock market ("green, buy or hold") is only 10 percent. The probability of a turbulent, volatile market with a positive trend ("yellow") holds at 9 percent. (graphic attached)

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In the year 2019 sowing will take place.

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Dear Readers,

it's been a turbulent year. What began in an exuberant mood - economic and profit expectations were massively revised upwards at the beginning of 2018 - now ends in minor. Economists are cutting their growth forecasts, stock prices are falling. Investors look to the New Year with concern.

One of the best leading indicators signaled this trend reversal in good time. In February 2018, the expectation index for the ifo business climate in German industry fell for the third time in succession. The entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute became more sceptical - and rightly so, as we now know. In conjunction with the very high share prices, this generated a sell signal for the private-wealth stock market indicator ("We are out of here"). Since then the model is only minimally invested. The equity ratio is between zero and 30 percent of the amount earmarked for shares.

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The economy continues to cloud over.

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ifo ampel 11 2018Dear Readers,

The ifo business climate in November did not reverse the trend. The most important component for us - the industry's expectations for the future - has continued to decline. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again. Red traffic light values make a contraction of the economy more likely than an expansion.

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The weather is getting a little more relaxed.

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Dear Readers,

"the thunderstorm front, which led us to completely dismantle our shareholding two weeks ago, has now dissipated somewhat," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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