News from the editorial office - Private Wealth

Sep 20, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph becomes even more cautious.

In August and early September, after a long period of maximum defensiveness, slight easing signals for equity investors came from the capital market seismograph. The probability of negative turbulence had fallen somewhat in favour of the probability of positive turbulence. "In the meantime, however, the probability landscape has shifted significantly towards negative turbulence again," informs Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH: "It is therefore advisable to reinforce the…

Klaus Meitinger 31

Aug 24, 2022 News from the editorial

Positive development in the capital market seismograph stopped.

"The more favourable development of the capital market seismograph in the last few weeks has almost reversed itself in the last few days", informs Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH, "the probability in the direction of positive, calm markets receded, the negative turbulence probability rose again at the expense of the other two probabilities". As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or even price…

Klaus Meitinger 83

Aug 19, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph sees mood on the stock markets improve further.

At the beginning of August, after a long period of maximum defensiveness, the capital market seismograph delivered a first easing signal for equity investors. At that time, there was for the first time again a slight decline in the probabilities for negative turbulence in favour of the probability for positive turbulence. "This means it is appropriate to no longer be maximally underweighted, but only underweighted," explained Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro Gmbh, a fortnight ago.…

Klaus Meitinger 82

Canary in a Coal Mine No Printed Materials edit width 1200px

Aug 10, 2022 News from the editorial

Canary in the coal mine.

Dear readers, We are constantly checking analyses and opinions of established research houses in order to provide you with only interesting and relevant information on our homepage instead of the usual noise and white noise. We have just noticed a graph that we do not want to deprive you of. The source is the renowned British research house Capital Economics. It shows the annual rate of change in new orders in Danish exports and in the volume of world trade (below). This chart is interesting…

Klaus Meitinger 81

Aug 02, 2022 News from the editorial

A small glimmer of hope.

For some time now, the Secaro Gmbh model, which translates the results of the capital market seismograph into an allocation proposal, has advised maximum defensiveness. Now Secaro managing director Oliver Schlick is cautiously feeling his way back into the stock market: "Between the probability of negative turbulence (red) and the probability of positive turbulence (yellow) there has recently been a limited exchange in favour of the probability of positive turbulence. For the file allocation,…

Klaus Meitinger 96

Jul 28, 2022 News from the editorial

Ten years after.

Ten years ago, on 26 July 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi promised in the face of the euro crisis at the time: "Within our mandate, the ECB stands ready to do whatever is necessary to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." It worked. Since then, "whatever it takes" has determined ECB policy. However, the first half-sentence "within the framework of our mandate" hardly matters any more. In the ten years since then, the European central bank has massively expanded the money…

Klaus Meitinger 83

Jul 15, 2022 News from the editorial

Before the showdown.

Sometime between July 21 and July 25, maintenance work on the NordStream 1 gas pipeline is expected to be completed. After that, it will come to a showdown: Will gas flow again or will Putin cut off Germany's supply of Russian gas? To provide guidance in this difficult situation, Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS, discussed with his colleagues the magnitude of the gas problem and the impact on the economy and inflation. To give you, dear readers, some orientation, I would like to share a…

Klaus Meitinger 187

Jul 06, 2022 News from the editorial

We are staying under cover.

Hopes for a turn for the better in ifo business expectations - the most important economic indicator for us - were dashed in June. After rising twice in April and May, expectations in the manufacturing sector deteriorated again. This means that the prerequisite for a positive trend reversal in the business cycle component of the private-wealth barometer - three consecutive increases - has not been met. The economic signal remains red. From this, we continue to derive a corridor for the…

Klaus Meitinger 120

May 03, 2022 News from the editorial

Emergency Exit at the Capital Market Seismograph.

"All input factors just caused a significant increase in the probability of negative turbulence. The dynamics are so strong that the rules of the model require a clear change in the equity quota. The recommendation of the approach is now to be strongly defensive and maximally cautious," reports Oliver Schlick, managing director of Secaro GmbH, who regularly calculates the seismograph and links it to investment recommendations. As they know, the seismograph combines various economic variables -…

Klaus Meitinger 212

Apr 08, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph remains relaxed.

In view of the unusually uncertain situation on the capital markets, we had announced to you that we would monitor the development of the capital market seismograph very closely and closely. On April 3, the seismograph had finally indicated an increase in the equity ratio. Since then, the situation has worsened again. The probability of an import freeze for Russian oil and gas has increased. The risk of recession in Europe has risen accordingly. And at the same time, it is becoming increasingly…

Klaus Meitinger 257

Apr 04, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph: Overall picture continues to brighten.

At the end of February, the capital market seismograph had indicated a massive thunderstorm warning. At the end of March, the clouds began to clear. Now, the seismograph is again aligning itself offensively. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation…

Klaus Meitinger 287

Mar 30, 2022 News from the editorial

Seismograph signals slight all-clear.

At the end of February, the results of the capital market seismograph had made it appear advisable to significantly reduce the equity allocation. Now the situation is easing again slightly. As you know, the seismograph combines various variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments and price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, the probabilities for three market states are distilled. Green stands for the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow…

Klaus Meitinger 238

Mar 28, 2022 News from the editorial

The ifo climate crashes on schedule.

A month ago, we wrote in this space: In our view, it is very likely that an overwhelming majority of the entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute in March will assess their business expectations less favorably on a six-month horizon. In this case, the expectations component in the ifo climate would decline significantly - and not gradually, as in a normal business cycle, but quickly and abruptly. At the time, we simulated how the private-wealth stock market indicator would react to such a…

Klaus Meitinger 235

Mar 22, 2022 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph remains on the defensive.

At the end of February, the results of the capital market seismograph had made it appear advisable to significantly reduce the share quota. The red probability - signal for an impending stock market storm - had risen quickly and significantly. At the time, Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH, commented: "Such a scenario means: a dark band of clouds is rapidly approaching. Investors have to act to avoid getting wet. According to the rules of the model, this requires going strongly…

Klaus Meitinger 260

Mar 01, 2022 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph is out.

As promised, we will keep you up to date on developments in the capital market seismograph. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as leading economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow denotes the probability for a turbulent positive market. And red indicates the…

Klaus Meitinger 269

Feb 28, 2022 News from the editorial

Incalculable risks for investors.

There are a few ironclad rules when using capital market models. Never intervene manually in your model. And don't try to anticipate the evolution of input variables. Extraordinary situations, however, require extraordinary measures. That's why today we'd like to give you a peek into the engine room of the private-wealth stock market model. In the model, we use the ifo business expectations in German industry as an indicator of the impact of the economy on the stock market. If they deteriorate,…

Klaus Meitinger 286

Feb 24, 2022 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph does not pull the ripcord yet.

As promised, we will keep you up to date on developments in the capital market seismograph. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow denotes the probability for a turbulent positive market. And red indicates the…

Klaus Meitinger 278

Feb 22, 2022 News from the editorial

Keep your nerve.

A month ago, the economic indicator - part of the private-wealth stock market model - had given a buy signal. As a result, at a DAX level of around 15,100 points, the model increased the suggested equity allocation from 75 percent (underweight) to 115 percent (overweight). We explained the logic of the stock market model to you in detail at the time. The latest results of the ifo Institute on the business climate in February confirm this signal. For the fourth time in a row, business…

Klaus Meitinger 255

Feb 18, 2022 News from the editorial

Updated analysis on TubeSolar.

Dear Sir and Madam, on Tuesday we had given you an update on TubeSolar's corporate history and announced that Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal, analyst at First Berlin Equity Research, would revise his assessment of the stock in the coming days. This has now been done. With Mr. von Blumenthal's permission, we are happy to provide you with the analysis.

Klaus Meitinger 309

Feb 01, 2022 News from the editorial

Modern Monetary Deception.

For three years, Modern Monetary Theory has led the world to believe that it can create an economic paradise - a world in which the state has unlimited capital at its disposal for investment or job guarantees to ensure a perpetual upswing. Now - in view of high inflation rates - the litmus test is due. And the theory fails miserably. Remember. In 2019, much was written about the fascinating "Modern Monetary Theory". Even private wealth reported on it (link 01/19 Welcome to paradise).The idea:…

Klaus Meitinger 263

Jan 27, 2022 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph remains relaxed.

After the turbulent stock market days of the last week, we were very curious about the current result of the capital market seismograph. Would the seismograph, which is supposed to warn of massive stock market storms in good time, strike out? "Our indicators tend to suggest that the setbacks on the stock markets are an exaggeration. We do have to be prepared for turbulent times lasting longer than expected - but these do not necessarily have to be bad for stock investors," informs Oliver…

Klaus Meitinger 351

Jan 26, 2022 News from the editorial

private-wealth stock market indicator gives buy signal.

In July 2021, the economic indicator - part of the private-wealth stock market model - had given a sell signal. As a result, at a DAX level of around 15,600 points, the model reduced the proposed equity allocation from 110 percent (overweight) to 75 percent (underweight). Now - after a very volatile start to the year - the private-wealth stock market model is going on the offensive again at a DAX level of around 15,100 points. We explained the logic of the stock market model to you in detail a…

Klaus Meitinger 295

Jan 11, 2022 News from the editorial

Idorsia - first milestone reached!

In the cover story of the latest issue of private wealth, we introduced you to the entrepreneurial couple Martine and Jean-Paul Clozel. They are founders and major shareholders of the Swiss biopharma company Idorsia. Jean-Paul directs the company's business as CEO, while Martine heads up research as Chief Scientific Officer.The goal of the two is to build Idorsia into a leading biopharmaceutical company with a strong scientific core, "We want to discover things that others haven't discovered.…

Silke Lauenstein 299

Dec 31, 2021 News from the editorial

private-wealth stock market indicator ahead of equity quota increase.

For more than 15 years, private wealth's stock market indicator has been giving equity investors valuable pointers on how to allocate the equity portion of their portfolio. The basic idea is to find out when the relationship between opportunities and risks in equity investments is positive. And when it is not. Anyone who used this as a guide would have been able to participate in the long upward phases on the markets and avoid the major loss phases, at least in part. How does the stock market…

Silke Lauenstein 344

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Omikron and the capital market seismograph.

Rarely have we been so eager to see the latest result of the capital market seismograph as today. Would the turmoil of the last few trading days and the concerns surrounding the Omicron variant change the positive view of the stock market barometer? "To be sure, the likelihood of calm markets has been dampened. In return, the expectation of a positively volatile market rose. Negative turbulence is still not in sight. On balance, the seismograph's positive market expectations remain unchanged",…

Klaus Meitinger 409

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Light at the end of the tunnel.

The publication of the ifo Business Climate for the month of November has led to almost unison negative comments. "Worries about a cooling of the global economy", "Corona blues". Indeed, the ifo business cycle clock (chart below left) is ticking swiftly through the cooling quadrant and is now approaching crisis territory alarmingly. The ifo economic traffic light (chart below right) also remains "deep red". In plain language: the ifo Institute now rates the probability of a cyclical phase of…

Klaus Meitinger 427

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

The climate is getting frosty.

Our indicators suggest that there will be greater fluctuations on the stock markets in the coming weeks. This is why the private-wealth stock market indicator already reduced its suggested equity allocation three months ago. The current data from German industry support this decision.

Klaus Meitinger 325

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

The recipe for success of family businesses.

Dear Readers, Family businesses are recognized worldwide for their outstanding entrepreneurial achievements. But what exactly is this model of success? What puts it at risk? And how can it be secured in the long term? You will find the answers in this special edition of private wealth, produced in cooperation with the Witten Institute for Family Business (WIFU). If you are not yet a subscriber, all you need to do to read this special edition is to register for a free trial subscription.

Sonderveröffentlichung: Wittener Institut für Familienunternehmen 300

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Summer's euphoria has faded.

Sentiment in German industry has deteriorated further. After peaking in March 2021, business expectations in the manufacturing sector have now fallen for the fifth time in a row. And export expectations also fell significantly. In short, the summer euphoria has completely evaporated. On the ifo Business Cycle Clock, the German economy is now on the verge of leaving the boom sector and entering the cooling segment (chart). This confirms the risk of a turnaround in the economy and underpins our…

Klaus Meitinger 301

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Take profits.

The ifo business climate survey for July confirmed the downward trend in German industry. This means that one of the three factors of the private-wealth stock market indicator - the economic component - has turned red. Investors should reduce their equity exposure and take some profits. The details: after peaking in February 2021, business expectations in the industrial sector have fallen for the fourth time in a row. In principle, the rule has applied in the past: if business expectations in…

Klaus Meitinger 319

Dec 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Is the party over?

When the party is at its best, they say, you should leave. The equity markets have been doing well for months, and the private-wealth stock market indicator is fully on board with an overweight in equities. But now the economic component of the model is giving a sell signal. Is it time to take profits? Let's take a closer look at the latest ifo business climate. It is true that sentiment in the German economy improved further overall in June. However, expectations in the industrial sector,…

Klaus Meitinger 289

May 29, 2021 News from the editorial

Full throttle.

Dear Readers, Despite rising infection figures, the economic recovery in the German economy is continuing with increased momentum. The upswing scenario established since July 2020 has thus been further consolidated. This is underlined by the latest surveys of the ifo Institute on the business climate and export expectations. In March, these even rose to their highest level since January 2011! Particularly impressive is the development in industry, whose expectations are an important indicator…

Klaus Meitinger 557

Feb 26, 2021 News from the editorial

On Track.

Dear Readers, In February, the ifo business climate made up for the dip in January. The positive development in industry, which is also decisive for the private wealth stock market indicator, was particularly impressive. The assessment of the situation there has now returned to the level of summer 2019 - so the Corona slump has been more than made up for. And business expectations are also pointing upwards again.

Klaus Meitinger 532

Feb 10, 2021 News from the editorial

Will 2021 be a top stock year?

Dear Readers, Over the past month, we have virtually visited a dozen annual outlooks from banks and asset managers. The bottom line is clear: this year, the augurs expect a massive economic recovery, rising inflation rates and yet continued ultra-expansionary monetary policy. What does this mean for investment strategy? At the beginning of his 2021 Annual Outlook each year, Neuberger Berman asks the audience which asset class will perform best in the coming year. This time, the answer was…

Klaus Meitinger 759

Feb 08, 2021 News from the editorial

Is inflation coming back?

Dear Readers, Over the past month, we have virtually visited a dozen annual outlooks from banks and asset managers. The bottom line is clear: this year, the forecasters expect a massive economic recovery. This raises the intriguing question: Will inflation rates also rise? And will this force the central banks to step on the brakes sooner than expected?

Klaus Meitinger 705

Feb 03, 2021 News from the editorial

Economic boom in 2021?

Dear Readers, Over the past month, we have virtually visited a dozen annual outlooks from banks and asset managers. The quintessence is clear: In the coming year, the forecasters expect a massive economic recovery.

Klaus Meitinger 722

Feb 02, 2021 News from the editorial

Seismograph remains relaxed.

Dear Readers, Disappointments over slow vaccine deliveries and, above all, fears of hedge fund bankruptcies had put pressure on the stock markets at the end of last week. As announced, Oliver Schlick, who as managing director of Secaro GmbH distils investment recommendations from the calculations of the capital market seismograph, analysed how the individual variables of the seismograph reacted to this. The question was: Should the turbulence of the last few days be taken seriously or not?

Klaus Meitinger 757

Jan 29, 2021 News from the editorial

Further development of the private-wealth stock market indicator.

Dear Readers, According to the ifo Business Cycle Clock, the German economy is moving back towards recession territory (Chart 1 below). The ifo Business Climate fell again in January, and business expectations in industry also declined again after a recovery in December. As a result, the ifo economic traffic light jumped back to "red" (chart 2). However, in view of the renewed loosening of the economy, this comes as no surprise. For the private-wealth stock market indicator, this is not (yet) a…

Klaus Meitinger 797

Jan 19, 2021 News from the editorial

Reality check: Seismograph passes litmus test.

Dear Readers, For more than two years now, we have been regularly informing you about developments on the capital market seismograph. Our aim is to help you better assess opportunities and risks on the stock market. At the same time, we use it to derive short-term changes in the equity ratio in the private wealth stock market indicator.

Klaus Meitinger 753

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Exchanges & Markets - where do DAX and S&P 500 stand in a year? Part 2

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to…

Klaus Meitinger 864

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Exchanges & Markets - where do DAX and S&P 500 stand in a year? Part 1

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to…

Klaus Meitinger 813

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Stock exchanges & markets - how are the prices of oil, gold, the Bitcoin and the US dollar developing?

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. Questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympic Games have already been answered. Now the experts are turning their attention to the capital markets - how are the prices of oil, gold, the Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro…

Klaus Meitinger 801

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

How is unemployment in Germany developing? Are the autonomous cars coming soon and will the 2021 Olympics be cancelled?

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future and the German labour market have already been answered.

Klaus Meitinger 792

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Italy's debt problem and the future of the European Union

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next Federal Chancellor have already been answered. This time the focus is on Italy's debt problem and Europe

Klaus Meitinger 767

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Who will win the elections next year Germany?

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. Who will become Federal Chancellor in autumn 2021 - do you give a probability?

Klaus Meitinger 711

Nov 28, 2020 News from the editorial

Elections, economy, securities markets - courageous answers to 15 tricky questions

Who will win the US presidential election? Who will become chancellor? Is Italy threatened with a debt cut? Where will the DAX be quoted in August 2021? The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. In the coming days, private wealth will successively publish the professionals' forecasts.

Klaus Meitinger 742

Aug 27, 2020 News from the editorial

Stabilisation of the economy supports stock market.

Dear Readers, In August, the ifo business climate index rose again. Particularly in the manufacturing sector, which is important for the private-wealth stock market indicator, the mood has now improved considerably. Although many industrial companies still assess their economic situation as poor, the outlook for the coming months is much better (chart below). The ifo researchers explain that order books are filling up again. This is encouraging. What is interesting for investors is that the…

Klaus Meitinger 886

Aug 18, 2020 News from the editorial

The weather forecast of the capital market seismograph - still sunny

The current news draws a fragile picture. The infection figures in Europe are rising significantly, government travel warnings are increasing, the conflict between the USA and China continues to smoulder, in Belarus the population is taking to the streets and the Turkish lira is plummeting. Could this be a harbinger of a difficult phase on the stock market? "Although the markets are currently facing headwinds from politics, the economic data is falling, but many market participants are…

Klaus Meitinger 903

Jul 29, 2020 News from the editorial

private-wealth stock market indicator increases equity ratio.

Dear Readers, There's never been anything like this before. In just five months, Germany's economy has gone from near-boom to near-boom as a result of the downturn and recession and back into the upswing quadrant of the ifo business cycle clock (chart below). A cycle in fast motion. According to the diction of the Munich-based economic researchers, the recession has thus ended and a new upswing has been established. This has consequences for the positioning of the private wealth stock market…

Klaus Meitinger 846

May 27, 2020 News from the editorial

The first step out of the economic slump.

Dear Readers, the mood among German companies has recovered somewhat after the catastrophic previous months. The ifo business climate index rose again in May. Although companies assessed the current situation as even worse than in April, expectations for the coming six months have improved. However, this was not to be expected any differently in view of the questions on the ifo Business Climate.

Klaus Meitinger 813

May 19, 2020 News from the editorial

Sentiment indicators give a false picture.

Dear Readers, The economic expectations surveyed by the Leibnitz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) have just improved significantly. Specifically, the economic expectations rose from 28.2 to 51 points in May, bringing the index back to the level of spring 2015 and thus significantly above the pre-Corona prices. The current ultra-expansive monetary policy and the government rescue measures would have a positive impact. On balance, the experts surveyed by the ZEW are confident that the…

Klaus Meitinger 849

May 11, 2020 News from the editorial

Seismograph signals renewed improvement in the stock market climate.

The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected - investors can invest without hesitation. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - buying stocks is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates…

Klaus Meitinger 895

May 05, 2020 News from the editorial

The seismograph indicates further relaxation.

The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - investing is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates a turbulent market with negative expectation.…

Klaus Meitinger 774

Apr 25, 2020 News from the editorial

Dramatic crash of the ifo indicator.

Dear Readers, In April, the ifo business climate index plunged to its lowest level ever measured. The fact that the current mood among German companies is catastrophic is not surprising given the global shutdowns. More critically, expectations for the coming six months have also continued to fall massively. In plain language, this means that even though the current situation is already extremely bleak, companies do not see any improvement even on a six-month horizon, but expect it to…

Klaus Meitinger 806

Apr 14, 2020 News from the editorial

Avoiding insolvency - a guide for business managers in a crisis.

Short-time working allowance, tax liquidity support, financial assistance - the federal government or the EU not only provides money for entrepreneurs in need. An overall concept should prevent that actually healthy companies have to file for insolvency. Five points are particularly important here!

Yvonne Döbler 808

Mar 25, 2020 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph does not yet give the all-clear.

Dear Readers, despite the recent significant recovery in share prices, the signals from the capital market seismograph remain negative. As you know, the seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedging) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest). "The probability of negative turbulence has recently risen dynamically and has now reached levels last seen during…

Klaus Meitinger 115

Mar 23, 2020 News from the editorial

ifo Institute: Corona will cost Germany hundreds of billions of euros

The Munich ifo Institute has now added to this. The coronavirus will cause hundreds of billions of euros in production losses for Germany's economy, cause short-time work and unemployment to skyrocket, and put a considerable strain on the national budget. "The costs will probably exceed everything known from economic crises or natural disasters in Germany in recent decades," said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. "Depending on the scenario, the economy will shrink by 7.2 to 20.6 percentage points.…

Klaus Meitinger 733

Mar 23, 2020 News from the editorial

How deep will the recession get?

After economists have only revised their growth forecasts downwards in small steps in recent weeks, the Munich-based ifo Institute has now driven a stake that roughly shows what is in store for the German economy in the coming weeks (https://www.ifo.de/node/53925). The ifo Institute is currently presenting two alternative forecasts. A "very, very favourable" scenario with minor production restrictions would result in a 1.5 percent decline in real national product. However, this does not take…

Klaus Meitinger 764

Mar 10, 2020 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph reduces equity exposure.

Dear readers, The dramatic development of the last few days and the massive increase in volatility had massively increased the probability of negative turbulence in the capital market seismograph. "This has resulted in a change in positioning on the stock market," Oliver Schlick informs. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedging) and "red" (turbulent…

Klaus Meitinger 787

Mar 09, 2020 News from the editorial

The next domino.

While the stock market is in panic mode, the losses in corporate bonds are comparatively small. This could change. We still remember an analysis by Pictet in October 2018, when the Swiss took a close look at the corporate bond market and wrote: "Beware oft the fallen angels. The chain of argumentation went like this: Many large investors are only allowed to buy so-called investment grade bonds - i.e. securities with good or very good credit ratings. Their rating must be at least BBB (from the…

Klaus Meitinger 688

Mar 04, 2020 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph stays cool in the corona panic.

Dear readers, While the stock markets were shaken by viral cramps, the capital market seismograph remains invested. "We recalculated every day, and the sum of the "good" probabilities green and yellow have moved only minimally from their highs. Accordingly, the probability of negative turbulence increased only minimally despite the panic on the stock markets," Oliver Schlick informs. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy),…

Klaus Meitinger 648

Feb 26, 2020 News from the editorial

Indicators (still) defy the coronavirus.

Dear readers, In February, business expectations in the industrial sector continued to improve (blue line in the chart below). The ifo economic traffic light also remained in the "green" range. The trend reversal in the industrial sector announced two months ago thus appears to be still intact. The German economy seems to be unimpressed by the development around the corona virus, writes the ifo Institute. However, it is doubtful that this will remain so. This is because the recent spread of the…

Klaus Meitinger 603

Feb 23, 2020 News from the editorial

The price of CO2 will rise - investors will benefit.

How much is nature worth? This question was asked by private wealth in the 01/19 issue, when analyst Lawson Steele of Berenberg Bank predicted that demand for pollution rights would significantly exceed supply in the future. And that therefore the price for a CO2 certificate would have to rise sharply. In recent months, however, the price of CO2 has fallen. This could be an opportunity for investors.

Gerd Hübner 560

Feb 06, 2020 News from the editorial

The future of money

Time and again, wealthy people ask themselves the question about the long-term stability of our monetary system. After all, the euro, dollar, franc and yen are all so-called FIAT money - artificially created means of payment with no value of their own, supported solely by trust in the issuing state. In his article "The end of fiat money" from DB Research's Concept 2030 study, Jim Reid has reflected on our fiat money system and comes to some disturbing conclusions. Jim Reid, DB Research,…

Klaus Meitinger 659

Feb 04, 2020 News from the editorial

Bitcoin - the better gold?

In times of monetary policy experiments, there is growing interest in "hard" investments, the supply of which cannot be expanded at will and which therefore serve particularly well as a store of value. Today, the most widely used classic alternative to paper currencies is gold. Manuel Andersch, Senior Currency Analyst of the Bayrische Landesbank, calculates in his study "Megatrend Digitalization - will Bitcoin Gold outpace Gold" that Bitcoin will soon be "harder" than gold. The possible…

Klaus Meitinger 620

Jan 19, 2020 News from the editorial

The intrepid forecast 2035: What equity investors can expect in terms of future returns.

At the beginning of the year, investors are keenly interested in twelve-month forecasts in order to find their investment favourites among the stock markets. "But that doesn't make sense," criticizes Norbert Keimling, head of capital market research at StarCapital, "only those who know how to assess the long-term prospects can identify particularly promising markets. The turn of the year is the wedding of the augurs. The most popular question to them is: How will the DAX perform in the coming…

Klaus Meitinger 639

Jan 17, 2020 News from the editorial

Seismograph convinces in 2019

Dear readers, When Oliver Schlick, former Chief Investment Officer of Bayerninvest, and his team led by Professor Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich, translated the turbulence probabilities developed by the capital market seismograph into a stock allocation scheme, the professional pursued an ambitious goal. "The systematic change of the stock weighting analogous to the results of the seismograph should not only be a kind of insurance, i.e. strongly reduce losses in sustained…

Klaus Meitinger 583

Dec 19, 2019 News from the editorial

Buy signal in the private-wealth stock market indicator.

Dear readers, The Ifo business climate continued to rise in December. Of particular interest here is the development of business expectations in industry, which we regard as an indicator of sentiment for the global economy and the stock markets. This expectation component has just delivered a buy signal. In October, expectations in the top echelons of industry had improved for the first time after a long period of decline. This was followed by a further slight increase in November and now the…

Klaus Meitinger 608

Dec 09, 2019 News from the editorial

Relaxed stock market mood.

Dear Readers, of the capital market seismographs continues to signal calmness. "In the last two weeks, the sum of the "good" probabilities has even increased by more than 90 percent. The seismograph therefore still suggests a maximum weighting of the equity quota," explains Oliver Schlick. As you know, the seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with…

Klaus Meitinger 600

Nov 26, 2019 News from the editorial

Buy-signal ante portas.

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate improved slightly in November. Of particular interest was the development of business expectations for the economy as a whole and for industry as a whole, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets. The expectation component of the overall economy has now risen for the second time in succession. In the manufacturing sector, however, it stagnated after an increase in October. The ifo traffic light has thus changed…

Klaus Meitinger 616

Sep 19, 2019 News from the editorial

Thunderclouds have dissipated.

Dear Readers, In recent weeks, the thunderclouds measured by capital market seismographs have gradually dissipated over the capital markets. "The sum of the "good" probabilities is now over 70 percent again." In combination with the sudden increase in the probability of calm markets, this ensures that the seismograph now considers a short-term significant increase in the share quota to be appropriate," explains Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph with his…

Klaus Meitinger 676

Aug 26, 2019 News from the editorial

Germany's industry in recession

Dear Readers, The ifo-Institut writes that the worries among German corporate leaders are getting deeper and deeper. In August, the ifo business climate finally fell significantly once again and has now reached its lowest level since November 2012. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, a similar pessimism was last observed in the crisis year 2009. It is particularly problematic that the massive decline apparently affects all sectors.…

Klaus Meitinger 825

Aug 20, 2019 News from the editorial

Seismograph gives a thunderstorm warning.

Dear Readers, We have just received the new estimate of the team around Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph. Since our last report to you, the likelihood of negative turbulence has quickly built up, although the absolute level remains within bounds. The speed at which thick black clouds form in order to remain in the seismograph's image is more of a concern here. "This is problematic and must be taken seriously," says Oliver Schlick and continues: "The…

Klaus Meitinger 830

Jul 30, 2019 News from the editorial

On the brink of recession

Dear Readers, The mood on the German executive floors is becoming uncomfortable, writes the ifo Institute. In fact, the ifo business climate continued to decline in July. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, the business climate indicator is even in free fall. Especially the export suffers (graphic 1).

Klaus Meitinger 837

Jul 01, 2019 News from the editorial

The seismograph points to a turbulent but positive market development.

Dear Readers, We have just received the new estimate of the team around Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph. As you know, it distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest). Currently, the probability of a calm, positive stock market ("green, buy or hold") is only 27 percent. However, the…

Klaus Meitinger 815

Jun 25, 2019 News from the editorial

No improvement in sight.

Dear Readers, In June, the ifo business climate fell further to its lowest level since November 2014. In industry, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, pessimism increased again after a brief improvement in sentiment in May. As in recent months, favourable assessments in the service sector and in construction are still supporting the overall climate. However, industry is already in recession today and is ensuring that the ifo traffic light…

Moritz Eckes 732

ifo VerarbeitendesGewerbe Mar2019andLegend

May 25, 2019 News from the editorial

Between hope and sorrow.

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate rose in March for the first time in six months. This, at first glance, good news, however, is put into perspective when looking at the individual areas. The service sector, trade and construction were responsible for the increase. In industry, which is regarded as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets, the decline continued steeply (Chart 1). The expectations of entrepreneurs in the manufacturing sector have now reached their…

Klaus Meitinger 1017

Feb 25, 2019 News from the editorial

No all-clear for the economy

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate continued to fall in February. The worries in the German executive floors are increasing, according to the Munich economic researchers. The results of the ifo survey and other indicators would point to economic growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019. After a minus of 0.2 percent in the third quarter and a black zero in the fourth quarter of 2018, this means that the German economy is stagnating. It can get even worse in the future. As you know,…

Klaus Meitinger 1142

Feb 11, 2019 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph becomes more positive, economic outlook remains critical

Dear Readers, "The probability distribution of future stock market developments has just fundamentally changed. We are still a long way from the positive figures that prevailed until autumn 2018. But the sharp decline in the probability of negative turbulence suggests an increase in the equity quota," analyses Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market =…

Klaus Meitinger 1084

Jan 28, 2019 News from the editorial

Economic risks intensifying

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate continued to decline significantly in January. In the German executive floors, the Munich conuncture researchers write, the restlessness is growing. In fact, all components of the ifo business climate declined. The collapse of expectations for the coming six months was particularly drastic in the retail and manufacturing sectors. As you know, we are monitoring the data from the export-oriented industry very closely because they allow conclusions to be…

Klaus Meitinger 1176

Jan 07, 2019 News from the editorial

2019 begins in crisis mode

Dear Readers, "the monthly comparison of the probabilities of the capital market seismograph reflects a crisis situation on the stock markets," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest). Last…

Moritz Eckes 1205

Dec 28, 2018 News from the editorial

In the year 2019 sowing will take place.

Dear Readers, it's been a turbulent year. What began in an exuberant mood - economic and profit expectations were massively revised upwards at the beginning of 2018 - now ends in minor. Economists are cutting their growth forecasts, stock prices are falling. Investors look to the New Year with concern. One of the best leading indicators signaled this trend reversal in good time. In February 2018, the expectation index for the ifo business climate in German industry fell for the third time in…

Moritz Eckes 1123

Dec 11, 2018 News from the editorial

The economy continues to cloud over.

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate in November did not reverse the trend. The most important component for us - the industry's expectations for the future - has continued to decline. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again. Red traffic light values make a contraction of the economy more likely than an expansion.

Klaus Meitinger 1163

Nov 20, 2018 News from the editorial

The weather is getting a little more relaxed.

Dear Readers, "the thunderstorm front, which led us to completely dismantle our shareholding two weeks ago, has now dissipated somewhat," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Klaus Meitinger 1289

Oct 27, 2018 News from the editorial

Stock market indicator remains negative.

Dear Readers, The ifo business climate is pointing downwards again in October. The most important component for us - the expectations in industry for the future - also fell back after a twofold increase. After a brief recovery, the mood in the export sector has also been dampened. The ifo traffic light has thus switched from "green" to "yellow". At yellow traffic lights, the ifo Institute assumes that there is a high degree of uncertainty about the economic regime.

Klaus Meitinger 993

Oct 23, 2018 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph warns of stock market storm.

Dear Readers, "The pace at which the probability of a bear market increases is worrying," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Klaus Meitinger 1269

Oct 17, 2018 News from the editorial

Capital market seismograph says "sell."

Dear Readers, The new data of the capital market seismograph reach us just now. "The climate shift on the capital market, which has been the subject of discussion for quite some time, is now reflected in the probabilities of the seismograph and leads to the recommendation of a strong reduction in the share quota", Oliver Schlick informs, "the advice is to reduce the weight of shares considerably." As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet…

Klaus Meitinger 1181