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The future of money

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IStock_picture_currenciesTime and again, wealthy people ask themselves the question about the long-term stability of our monetary system. After all, the euro, dollar, franc and yen are all so-called FIAT money - artificially created means of payment with no value of their own, supported solely by trust in the issuing state. In his article "The end of fiat money" from DB Research's Concept 2030 study, Jim Reid has reflected on our fiat money system and comes to some disturbing conclusions.

Jim Reid, DB Research, considers that a fiat money system is inherently unstable because it is susceptible to high inflation. For it is always too tempting for political decision-makers to create unlimited new money in a monetary system based solely on trust.

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Bitcoin - the better gold?

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iStock 905105464In times of monetary policy experiments, there is growing interest in "hard" investments, the supply of which cannot be expanded at will and which therefore serve particularly well as a store of value. Today, the most widely used classic alternative to paper currencies is gold. Manuel Andersch, Senior Currency Analyst of the Bayrische Landesbank, calculates in his study "Megatrend Digitalization - will Bitcoin Gold outpace Gold" that Bitcoin will soon be "harder" than gold. The possible conclusions from this work are breathtaking.

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The intrepid forecast 2035: What equity investors can expect in terms of future returns.

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StarCapitalImageAt the beginning of the year, investors are keenly interested in twelve-month forecasts in order to find their investment favourites among the stock markets. "But that doesn't make sense," criticizes Norbert Keimling, head of capital market research at StarCapital, "only those who know how to assess the long-term prospects can identify particularly promising markets.

The turn of the year is the wedding of the augurs. The most popular question to them is: How will the DAX perform in the coming year? Norbert Keimling, Head of Capital Market Research at StarCapital, has summarized the forecasts of the leading financial institutions. "The mean value of the DAX estimates for the end of 2020 is 13,999 points, the highest and lowest expectations are 15,000 and 12,500 points respectively.

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Seismograph convinces in 2019

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Dear readers,

Seismogaph Dec2019When Oliver Schlick, former Chief Investment Officer of Bayerninvest, and his team led by Professor Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich, translated the turbulence probabilities developed by the capital market seismograph into a stock allocation scheme, the professional pursued an ambitious goal. "The systematic change of the stock weighting analogous to the results of the seismograph should not only be a kind of insurance, i.e. strongly reduce losses in sustained downward movements, but at the same time ensure that upward phases on the stock markets are followed," explains the professional.

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Buy signal in the private-wealth stock market indicator.

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Dear readers,

ifo Uhr Dec2019The Ifo business climate continued to rise in December. Of particular interest here is the development of business expectations in industry, which we regard as an indicator of sentiment for the global economy and the stock markets. This expectation component has just delivered a buy signal.

In October, expectations in the top echelons of industry had improved for the first time after a long period of decline. This was followed by a further slight increase in November and now the third consecutive increase in December. The ifo economic clock still positions the German economy in the downturn quadrant. But the trend is now pointing upwards again. And the ifo traffic light switches to "green" (graphs below).

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Relaxed stock market mood.

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Dear Readers,

of the capital market seismographs continues to signal calmness. "In the last two weeks, the sum of the "good" probabilities has even increased by more than 90 percent. The seismograph therefore still suggests a maximum weighting of the equity quota," explains Oliver Schlick.

As you know, the seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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Buy-signal ante portas.

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Dear Readers,

ifo ampel nov19The ifo business climate improved slightly in November. Of particular interest was the development of business expectations for the economy as a whole and for industry as a whole, which we regard as a sentiment indicator for the global economy and the stock markets. The expectation component of the overall economy has now risen for the second time in succession. In the manufacturing sector, however, it stagnated after an increase in October. The ifo traffic light has thus changed from red to yellow (graphics).

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Thunderclouds have dissipated.

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Dear Readers,

In recent weeks, the thunderclouds measured by capital market seismographs have gradually dissipated over the capital markets. "The sum of the "good" probabilities is now over 70 percent again." In combination with the sudden increase in the probability of calm markets, this ensures that the seismograph now considers a short-term significant increase in the share quota to be appropriate," explains Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph with his team.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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