Capital market seismograph remains on the defensive.
At the end of February, the results of the capital market seismograph had made it appear advisable to significantly reduce the share quota. The red probability - signal for an impending stock market storm - had risen quickly and significantly. At the time, Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH, commented: "Such a scenario means: a dark band of clouds is rapidly approaching. Investors have to act to avoid getting wet. According to the rules of the model, this requires going strongly on the defensive."
Since then, the mix has continued to tighten. "The development of key input factors ensures that the probability of negative turbulence is currently increasing even further. In this environment, the right strategy remains to be maximally cautious," explains Schlick, who regularly calculates the model and links it to investment recommendations.
The bottom line:
In view of the extremely high probability of negative influences on the global economy, the private wealth stock market indicator positioned itself more defensively at the end of February. Since then, the corridor for the recommended equity allocation has been between 45 and 75 percent. Since the capital market seismograph considers a very defensive stance to be indicated, the current equity ratio suggested by the private wealth stock market indicator is 45 percent of the individual's intended equity allocation. There is currently no change to this.
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