News from the editorial

  • Klaus Meitinger

The first step out of the economic slump.

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ifo Index May2020Dear Readers,

the mood among German companies has recovered somewhat after the catastrophic previous months. The ifo business climate index rose again in May. Although companies assessed the current situation as even worse than in April, expectations for the coming six months have improved. However, this was not to be expected any differently in view of the questions on the ifo Business Climate.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Sentiment indicators give a false picture.

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Logo pw2Dear Readers,

The economic expectations surveyed by the Leibnitz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) have just improved significantly. Specifically, the economic expectations rose from 28.2 to 51 points in May, bringing the index back to the level of spring 2015 and thus significantly above the pre-Corona prices.

The current ultra-expansive monetary policy and the government rescue measures would have a positive impact. On balance, the experts surveyed by the ZEW are confident that the economy is turning the corner.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Seismograph signals renewed improvement in the stock market climate.

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Kapitalmarkt Seismograf 1The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected - investors can invest without hesitation. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - buying stocks is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates a turbulent market with negative expectations. The advice is then: Do not invest.

The editorial team uses these results to determine the short-term equity positioning within the range suggested by the private-wealth stock market indicator.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

The seismograph indicates further relaxation.

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Kapitalmarkt Seismograf 2The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - investing is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates a turbulent market with negative expectation. The advice is then: Do not invest.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Dramatic crash of the ifo indicator.

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Ifo Index Apr2020Dear Readers,

In April, the ifo business climate index plunged to its lowest level ever measured. The fact that the current mood among German companies is catastrophic is not surprising given the global shutdowns. More critically, expectations for the coming six months have also continued to fall massively. In plain language, this means that even though the current situation is already extremely bleak, companies do not see any improvement even on a six-month horizon, but expect it to deteriorate further.

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