News from the editorial

  • Klaus Meitinger

Stabilisation of the economy supports stock market.

Dear Readers,

In August, the ifo business climate index rose again. Particularly in the manufacturing sector, which is important for the private-wealth stock market indicator, the mood has now improved considerably. Although many industrial companies still assess their economic situation as poor, the outlook for the coming months is much better (chart below). The ifo researchers explain that order books are filling up again.

This is encouraging. What is interesting for investors is that the recovery in the industrial sector should not only support the entire stock market. It could also create investment opportunities in second- and third-tier cyclical companies whose stock prices are still far below pre-corona levels.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

The weather forecast of the capital market seismograph - still sunny

Kapitalmarkt Seismograf 2The current news draws a fragile picture. The infection figures in Europe are rising significantly, government travel warnings are increasing, the conflict between the USA and China continues to smoulder, in Belarus the population is taking to the streets and the Turkish lira is plummeting. Could this be a harbinger of a difficult phase on the stock market?

"Although the markets are currently facing headwinds from politics, the economic data is falling, but many market participants are obviously positive about the situation," analyses Oliver Schlick, Secaro. The capital market seismograph calculated by Schlick therefore continues to suggest a clear overweighting of equities.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

private-wealth stock market indicator increases equity ratio.

ifo index jul2020Dear Readers,

There's never been anything like this before. In just five months, Germany's economy has gone from near-boom to near-boom as a result of the downturn and recession and back into the upswing quadrant of the ifo business cycle clock (chart below). A cycle in fast motion. According to the diction of the Munich-based economic researchers, the recession has thus ended and a new upswing has been established.

This has consequences for the positioning of the private wealth stock market indicator.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

The first step out of the economic slump.

ifo Index May2020Dear Readers,

the mood among German companies has recovered somewhat after the catastrophic previous months. The ifo business climate index rose again in May. Although companies assessed the current situation as even worse than in April, expectations for the coming six months have improved. However, this was not to be expected any differently in view of the questions on the ifo Business Climate.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Sentiment indicators give a false picture.

Logo pw2Dear Readers,

The economic expectations surveyed by the Leibnitz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) have just improved significantly. Specifically, the economic expectations rose from 28.2 to 51 points in May, bringing the index back to the level of spring 2015 and thus significantly above the pre-Corona prices.

The current ultra-expansive monetary policy and the government rescue measures would have a positive impact. On balance, the experts surveyed by the ZEW are confident that the economy is turning the corner.

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