News from the editorial

  • Klaus Meitinger

Canary in the coal mine.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)
Dear readers, We are constantly checking analyses and opinions of established research houses in order to provide you with only interesting and relevant information on our homepage instead of the usual noise and white noise. We have just noticed a graph that we do not want to deprive you of. The source is the renowned British research house Capital Economics. It shows the annual rate of change in new orders in Danish exports and in the volume of world trade (below). This chart is interesting because, according to CE, Denmark is the most "open" of the Nordic economies. Therefore, the record crash in July is a clear warning signal regarding the state of the global economy. The Danish canary in the coal mine is no longer chirping. Capital...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

A small glimmer of hope.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
For some time now, the Secaro Gmbh model, which translates the results of the capital market seismograph into an allocation proposal, has advised maximum defensiveness. Now Secaro managing director Oliver Schlick is cautiously feeling his way back into the stock market: "Between the probability of negative turbulence (red) and the probability of positive turbulence (yellow) there has recently been a limited exchange in favour of the probability of positive turbulence. For the file allocation, this means now being underweighted rather than maximally underweighted." As they know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - leading economic indicators, interest rate developments - with market indicators, such as price fluctuations...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Ten years after.

(Reading time: 5 - 9 minutes)
  Ten years ago, on 26 July 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi promised in the face of the euro crisis at the time: "Within our mandate, the ECB stands ready to do whatever is necessary to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." It worked. Since then, "whatever it takes" has determined ECB policy. However, the first half-sentence "within the framework of our mandate" hardly matters any more. In the ten years since then, the European central bank has massively expanded the money supply, bought government bonds on a huge scale, manipulated interest rates downwards and engaged in prohibited monetary state financing. Above all, it thus abolished the steering function of the interest rate and replaced it with the wisdom of...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Before the showdown.

(Reading time: 3 - 6 minutes)
Sometime between July 21 and July 25, maintenance work on the NordStream 1 gas pipeline is expected to be completed. After that, it will come to a showdown: Will gas flow again or will Putin cut off Germany's supply of Russian gas? To provide guidance in this difficult situation, Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS, discussed with his colleagues the magnitude of the gas problem and the impact on the economy and inflation. To give you, dear readers, some orientation, I would like to share a few figures from UBS research. In earlier estimates, the experts assumed that Europe would consume 497 billion cubic meters of gas in 2022 - Germany alone 79 billion. Of that, 127 billion was expected to come from Russia (Germany normally imports...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

We are staying under cover.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
  Hopes for a turn for the better in ifo business expectations - the most important economic indicator for us - were dashed in June. After rising twice in April and May, expectations in the manufacturing sector deteriorated again. This means that the prerequisite for a positive trend reversal in the business cycle component of the private-wealth barometer - three consecutive increases - has not been met. The economic signal remains red. From this, we continue to derive a corridor for the recommended equity quota between 45 and 75 percent of the individually intended equity share. Within this range, we are guided by the results of the capital market seismograph. Since the latter has long advised maximum defensiveness, the current...

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