Wars, crises and positive signals from the stock market indicator.
German industry has digested the tariff shock. Current data from the ifo Business Climate Index for June show that the economic stabilisation process is underway and the economy is on a moderate recovery path. This also improves the outlook for the German stock market.
This is particularly impressive when illustrated by the ifo Business Cycle Clock (Chart 1). The clock visualises the classic course of an economic cycle in the interplay between the business situation and business expectations. Expectations generally precede the situation. In the crisis quadrant, expectations initially improve, but the situation remains difficult. Once the economy reaches the recovery quadrant, expectations continue to rise. But now the business situation,...