In August, the ifo business climate index rose again. Particularly in the manufacturing sector, which is important for the private-wealth stock market indicator, the mood has now improved considerably. Although many industrial companies still assess their economic situation as poor, the outlook for the coming months is much better (chart below). The ifo researchers explain that order books are filling up again.
This is encouraging. What is interesting for investors is that the recovery in the industrial sector should not only support the entire stock market. It could also create investment opportunities in second- and third-tier cyclical companies whose stock prices are still far below pre-corona levels.
The current news draws a fragile picture. The infection figures in Europe are rising significantly, government travel warnings are increasing, the conflict between the USA and China continues to smoulder, in Belarus the population is taking to the streets and the Turkish lira is plummeting. Could this be a harbinger of a difficult phase on the stock market?
"Although the markets are currently facing headwinds from politics, the economic data is falling, but many market participants are obviously positive about the situation," analyses Oliver Schlick, Secaro. The capital market seismograph calculated by Schlick therefore continues to suggest a clear overweighting of equities.
There's never been anything like this before. In just five months, Germany's economy has gone from near-boom to near-boom as a result of the downturn and recession and back into the upswing quadrant of the ifo business cycle clock (chart below). A cycle in fast motion. According to the diction of the Munich-based economic researchers, the recession has thus ended and a new upswing has been established.
This has consequences for the positioning of the private wealth stock market indicator.