News from the editorial

  • Klaus Meitinger

Capital market seismograph remains on the defensive.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)
At the end of February, the results of the capital market seismograph had made it appear advisable to significantly reduce the share quota. The red probability - signal for an impending stock market storm - had risen quickly and significantly. At the time, Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH, commented: "Such a scenario means: a dark band of clouds is rapidly approaching. Investors have to act to avoid getting wet. According to the rules of the model, this requires going strongly on the defensive." Since then, the mix has continued to tighten. "The development of key input factors ensures that the probability of negative turbulence is currently increasing even further. In this environment, the right strategy remains to be...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Capital market seismograph is out.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)
As promised, we will keep you up to date on developments in the capital market seismograph. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as leading economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow denotes the probability for a turbulent positive market. And red indicates the probability of a turbulent-negative market. If this rises significantly, a massive stock market storm is looming and it's time to get out. "The seismograph focuses not only on the absolute values of the probabilities, but also on the changes - especially...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Incalculable risks for investors.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
There are a few ironclad rules when using capital market models. Never intervene manually in your model. And don't try to anticipate the evolution of input variables. Extraordinary situations, however, require extraordinary measures. That's why today we'd like to give you a peek into the engine room of the private-wealth stock market model. In the model, we use the ifo business expectations in German industry as an indicator of the impact of the economy on the stock market. If they deteriorate, this is an indication of an economic downturn with a corresponding negative impact on corporate earnings. If expectations improve, positive impetus from company earnings and rising share prices can be expected in the future. To establish a new...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Capital market seismograph does not pull the ripcord yet.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
As promised, we will keep you up to date on developments in the capital market seismograph. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow denotes the probability for a turbulent positive market. And red indicates the probability of a turbulent-negative market. If this rises significantly, a massive stock market storm is looming and it's time to get out. Despite the distortions of the last few days, the red probability is still in the non-critical range today....

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Keep your nerve.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
A month ago, the economic indicator - part of the private-wealth stock market model - had given a buy signal. As a result, at a DAX level of around 15,100 points, the model increased the suggested equity allocation from 75 percent (underweight) to 115 percent (overweight). We explained the logic of the stock market model to you in detail at the time. The latest results of the ifo Institute on the business climate in February confirm this signal. For the fourth time in a row, business expectations in industry rose. Companies are more optimistic, the order backlog has increased again, but material bottlenecks continue to hamper production, writes the ifo Institute. Interestingly, the Munich researchers' economic traffic light has now also...

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