Dear Readers,
For more than two years now, we have been regularly informing you about developments on the capital market seismograph. Our aim is to help you better assess opportunities and risks on the stock market. At the same time, we use it to derive short-term changes in the equity ratio in the private wealth stock market indicator.
The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers.
The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to the US dollar?
In conclusion, the professionals share their assessments of the US election and BREXIT.
13 What final outcome do you expect for the BREXIT at the end of 2020 (probability)?
Lerbach Competence Circle
Hard BREXITE47 %
negotiated solution 27 %
Further postponement 26 %
14 Who will be US President?
67% of the participants of the Lerbach competence circle believe in an election victory for Joe Biden. Only 33% see Donald Trump in front.
15 Who will win the elections for the US Congress?
The Congressional elections- House of Representatives and Senate.
The majorities there are important because on them depends how many of his plans the new/old US president can implement without problems.
All participants of the Lerbach Competence Circle believe that the Democrats will be able to defend their majority in the House of Representatives.
48 percent expect that the Democrats will also achieve a majority in the Senate. That would be a perfect "blue wave" and Joe Biden could rule through. However, the narrow majority - 52 percent - assumes that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans. That would limit a President Biden's options.
Yours truly,
Klaus Meitinger
Note: Despite careful selection of the sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.
The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers.
The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to the US dollar?
Today the professionals take a look at the German and the American stock market.
11. where will the DAX be quoted in August 2021 (probability)?
Lerbach Competence Circle
Below 11000 points12 %
Between 11000 and 13000 points 30
Between 13000 and 15000 points 41 %
Over 15000 points17 %
12. where do you see the US stock index S&P 500 in August 2021 (probability)?
Lerbach Competence Circle
Under 2700 points10 %
Between 2700 and 3300 points 25 %
Between 3300 and 3800 points 42 %
Over 3800 points23 %
Your
Klaus Meitinger
Note: Despite careful selection of the sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.
The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers.
Questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympic Games have already been answered.
Now the experts are turning their attention to the capital markets - how are the prices of oil, gold, the Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to the US dollar developing?
7. where is the price of Brent oil in August 2021 (probability)?
Lerbach Competence Circle
Under $3513 %
Between $35 and $4529 %
Between $45 and $5537 %
Over $5521 %
8. where do you see the gold price in August 2021 (probability)?
Lerbach Competence Circle
Under $180013 %
Between $1800 and $220033 %
Between $2200 and $250037 %
Over $250017 %
9. where do you see the price of Bitcoin in August 2021 (probability)?
Lerbach Competence Circle
Under $900016 %
Between $9,000 and $13,00035 %
Between $13,000 and $15,00031 %
Over $15,00018 %
10. where will the euro be quoted against the US dollar in August 2021 (probability)?
Lerbach Competence Circle
Under $1.1012 %
Between $1.10 and $1.2038 %
Between $1.20 and $1.3039 %
Over $1.3011 %
Yours
Klaus Meitinger
Note: Despite careful selection of the sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.
The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers.
The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future and the German labour market have already been answered.