News

  • Klaus Meitinger

Seismograph becomes even more cautious.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)
In August and early September, after a long period of maximum defensiveness, slight easing signals for equity investors came from the capital market seismograph. The probability of negative turbulence had fallen somewhat in favour of the probability of positive turbulence. "In the meantime, however, the probability landscape has shifted significantly towards negative turbulence again," informs Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH: "It is therefore advisable to reinforce the underweighting that still exists anyway." As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or even price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, the probabilities for three...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Positive development in the capital market seismograph stopped.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
"The more favourable development of the capital market seismograph in the last few weeks has almost reversed itself in the last few days", informs Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH, "the probability in the direction of positive, calm markets receded, the negative turbulence probability rose again at the expense of the other two probabilities". As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or even price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, the probabilities for three market states in the next month are distilled. Green stands for the expectation of a calm, positive market. If green dominates, investors should invest in shares. Yellow indicates...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Seismograph sees mood on the stock markets improve further.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
  At the beginning of August, after a long period of maximum defensiveness, the capital market seismograph delivered a first easing signal for equity investors. At that time, there was for the first time again a slight decline in the probabilities for negative turbulence in favour of the probability for positive turbulence. "This means it is appropriate to no longer be maximally underweighted, but only underweighted," explained Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro Gmbh, a fortnight ago. Because in the past, a change from "red" to "yellow" was often a signal that the worst was over in the stock markets. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Canary in the coal mine.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)
Dear readers, We are constantly checking analyses and opinions of established research houses in order to provide you with only interesting and relevant information on our homepage instead of the usual noise and white noise. We have just noticed a graph that we do not want to deprive you of. The source is the renowned British research house Capital Economics. It shows the annual rate of change in new orders in Danish exports and in the volume of world trade (below). This chart is interesting because, according to CE, Denmark is the most "open" of the Nordic economies. Therefore, the record crash in July is a clear warning signal regarding the state of the global economy. The Danish canary in the coal mine is no longer chirping. Capital...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

A small glimmer of hope.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
For some time now, the Secaro Gmbh model, which translates the results of the capital market seismograph into an allocation proposal, has advised maximum defensiveness. Now Secaro managing director Oliver Schlick is cautiously feeling his way back into the stock market: "Between the probability of negative turbulence (red) and the probability of positive turbulence (yellow) there has recently been a limited exchange in favour of the probability of positive turbulence. For the file allocation, this means now being underweighted rather than maximally underweighted." As they know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - leading economic indicators, interest rate developments - with market indicators, such as price fluctuations...

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