News

  • Klaus Meitinger

A race against time.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
After the business cycle component of the private-wealth stock market indicator delivered a buy signal last week, we received many enquiries from the network. How can it be that the outlook in industry is improving while new orders - an important leading indicator - are declining significantly? Indeed, new orders do not look good. Since the beginning of '22 they have been showing a clear downward trend, both from abroad and domestically. Especially in real terms - i.e. in terms of pure volume - there is a clear slump (see chart below). And because volume is a decisive factor for capacity utilisation and thus to a large extent also for profit margins - this is a development that can cause concern for investors. It is interesting that...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Strategic buy signal for German equities.

(Reading time: 4 - 7 minutes)
  The economic component of the private-wealth stock market indicator provides a strategic, long-term buy signal for German equities. It is therefore advisable to increase the equity ratio. You know: The equity allocation corridor suggested by the private-wealth stock market indicator is determined by two factors - the economic trend and the valuation of the DAX. Basically, it is about being strategically more invested in equities when the DAX is low and the German economic traffic light is green at the same time. This means that the risk-reward ratio for equity investments is favourable. If the economic outlook deteriorates and/or equities are highly valued, the stock market indicator gradually goes on the defensive. The private-wealth...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Is the recession over?

(Reading time: 2 - 4 minutes)
The ifo business climate index delivered a positive surprise at the end of the year. For the third time in a row, the business expectations of the 9,000 entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute rose significantly in December. In ifo diction, this is considered a sign of a turnaround in the German economy. The details: After an almost continuous decline since February 2022, the mood among entrepreneurs has been steadily improving since October. The pointer on the ifo business cycle clock (chart above) is now moving back in the direction of recovery. And the ifo economic traffic light (chart below) even shows green. It thus signals a probability of more than two-thirds for an expansionary development of the German economy in the next...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Countdown 2023, a look into the crystal ball: Part 4 - Lerbacher Kompetenzkreis.

(Reading time: 4 - 7 minutes)
  At the end of the year, economists, investment strategists and asset managers look ahead. These days they publish their forecasts and strategies for the new year. Especially with regard to the future course of the central banks and the economy, there is enormous uncertainty today. For investors, however, it is precisely these developments that are decisive. Corporate results depend on the economy. And the interest rate trend decisively determines how high the expected profits will be valued on the stock market. Private wealth therefore asked the Lerbach Competence Circle the nine most important questions of its readers. 15 participants answered. The survey thus provides a good overview of how professionals assess the investment...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Countdown 2023, a look into the crystal ball: PART 3 - Schroders and Merck Finck.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
At the end of the year, economists, investment strategists and asset managers look ahead. These days they publish their forecasts and strategies for the new year. Private wealth attends the most interesting conferences and publishes the most exciting thoughts of the professionals to offer you, dear readers, inspiration and guidance for a (hopefully) successful investment year 2023. Sincerely yours, Klaus Meitinger Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be assumed for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for informational purposes and is not an invitation to buy or sell securities.   Part 3: Schroders and Merck Finck - bright spots in the East. The global economy is...

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