News

  • Klaus Meitinger

Emergency Exit at the Capital Market Seismograph.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)
"All input factors just caused a significant increase in the probability of negative turbulence. The dynamics are so strong that the rules of the model require a clear change in the equity quota. The recommendation of the approach is now to be strongly defensive and maximally cautious," reports Oliver Schlick, managing director of Secaro GmbH, who regularly calculates the seismograph and links it to investment recommendations. As they know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or even price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, the probabilities for three market states in the next month are distilled. Green stands for the expectation of a calm, positive market....

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Seismograph remains relaxed.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
In view of the unusually uncertain situation on the capital markets, we had announced to you that we would monitor the development of the capital market seismograph very closely and closely. On April 3, the seismograph had finally indicated an increase in the equity ratio. Since then, the situation has worsened again. The probability of an import freeze for Russian oil and gas has increased. The risk of recession in Europe has risen accordingly. And at the same time, it is becoming increasingly clear that China's zero-covid strategy has failed. We were all the more curious to see how the capital market seismograph would react. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as early economic indicators, interest...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Seismograph: Overall picture continues to brighten.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
At the end of February, the capital market seismograph had indicated a massive thunderstorm warning. At the end of March, the clouds began to clear. Now, the seismograph is again aligning itself offensively. As you know, the seismograph combines various economic variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, it distills the probabilities for three market states over the next month. Green represents the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow denotes the probability for a turbulent positive market. And red indicates the probability of a turbulent-negative market. If this rises significantly, a massive stock market storm is looming and it's time to get...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Seismograph signals slight all-clear.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
At the end of February, the results of the capital market seismograph had made it appear advisable to significantly reduce the equity allocation. Now the situation is easing again slightly. As you know, the seismograph combines various variables, such as early economic indicators, interest rate developments and price fluctuations on the stock markets. From these, the probabilities for three market states are distilled. Green stands for the expectation of a calm, positive market. Yellow indicates the probability of a turbulent positive market. And red indicates the probability of a turbulent-negative market. If this rises significantly, a massive stock market storm is looming and it's time to get out. Since the red probability - signal...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

The ifo climate crashes on schedule.

(Reading time: 2 - 4 minutes)
A month ago, we wrote in this space: In our view, it is very likely that an overwhelming majority of the entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute in March will assess their business expectations less favorably on a six-month horizon. In this case, the expectations component in the ifo climate would decline significantly - and not gradually, as in a normal business cycle, but quickly and abruptly. At the time, we simulated how the private-wealth stock market indicator would react to such a development and reduced the equity allocation to a range between 45 and 75 percent of the individually intended equity allocation. What we feared a month ago has now come true. The ifo Institute reported a "historic" slump in business expectations...

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