A month ago we pointed out that the economic component of the private wealth indicator would probably give a sell signal at the end of July and therefore reduced the equity quota somewhat as a precaution. Now this fear has come true. You know: The decisive role in the analysis of the economic trend in the private-wealth stock market indicator is played by the monthly survey of the ifo Institute on business expectations in German industry. Here the participants have a choice between three answer options: They expect their business to be either "more favourable", "unchanged" or "less favourable" over a six-month horizon. The balance value of the business expectations published by the ifo Institute is the difference between the percentages...

The capital market seismograph had issued a thunderstorm warning nine days ago. The probability of negative turbulence on the stock markets had increased significantly. For precautionary reasons, the equity quota was reduced accordingly. This step is now - in part - being revised again. As you know, the seismograph combines various variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets.From these, the probabilities for three market states in the next month are distilled. Green stands for the expectation of a calm, positive market. If green dominates, investors should invest in shares. Yellow indicates the probability of a turbulent positive market - invest, but with a sense of proportion....

The capital market seismograph issues a thunderstorm warning. The probability of negative turbulence on the stock markets increases. It is advisable to further reduce the equity exposure. Within the strategic corridor for equity allocation, which depends on the development of the economy and the market valuation, the capital market seismograph determines the exact positioning of the private-wealth stock market indicator. After a prolonged period in which the seismograph suggested being fully invested within the given range, the probability landscape has now changed dramatically. "The recommendation now is to be very defensive," informs Oliver Schlick, who translates the seismograph's signals into allocation suggestions for Secaro GmbH. As...

The economic component of the private wealth stock market indicator is collapsing. It is advisable to reduce the equity quota as a precaution. The strategic corridor for equity allocation suggested by the private-wealth stock market indicator is determined by two factors - the economic trend and the valuation of the DAX. Basically, the idea is to be more heavily invested in equities when the DAX is low and the German economic traffic light is green at the same time. If the economic outlook deteriorates and/or shares are highly valued, the stock market indicator gradually goes on the defensive. While the valuation of the Dax - it is trading at about the level of its fair value - need not worry investors, massive headwinds are coming from...

Despite all the uncertainty surrounding interest rates, the economy and corporate earnings, the capital market seismograph remains on track. "Most recently, even most input variables have increased the probability of calm, positive markets. The main culprits were changes in the yield curve and a slight brightening of the global economic climate," explains Oliver Schlick, Secaro, who regularly calculates the seismograph with his team and derives allocation decisions from it. His conclusion: "In sum, it remains the case that the state of the indicators continues to justify keeping equity exposure at the maximum allowable level." As they know, the seismograph combines various economic variables - early economic indicators, interest rate...