A good acquaintance once said: The long-term prospects of an investment are better the worse it feels at the moment of purchase. Voila. Here we are. It actually feels very bad to invest more heavily in German stocks at this very moment. The "sick man of Europe" is in recession, the DAX has been trending downward for weeks, and small and mid-cap stocks in particular have lost massive amounts of value. Nevertheless, the private-wealth stock market indicator gives a first buy signal. You know: The aim of the stock market indicator is not to precisely identify turning points on the stock markets. Rather, it is intended to help identify phases in which it is more promising than average to invest in equities over the long term.Specifically,...

A month ago, the business cycle component of the private wealth stock market indicator had switched to red. The results of the Ifo Business Survey on the German business climate for August confirmed this assessment. The ifo economic traffic light is on red and on the ifo economic clock Germany is now clearly in the crisis quadrant. You know: The decisive role in the analysis of the economic trend in the private-wealth stock market indicator is played by the ifo Institute's monthly survey of business expectations in German industry. Here the participants have a choice between three answer options: They expect their business to be either "more favourable", "unchanged" or "less favourable" over a six-month horizon. The balance value of...

A month ago we pointed out that the economic component of the private wealth indicator would probably give a sell signal at the end of July and therefore reduced the equity quota somewhat as a precaution. Now this fear has come true. You know: The decisive role in the analysis of the economic trend in the private-wealth stock market indicator is played by the monthly survey of the ifo Institute on business expectations in German industry. Here the participants have a choice between three answer options: They expect their business to be either "more favourable", "unchanged" or "less favourable" over a six-month horizon. The balance value of the business expectations published by the ifo Institute is the difference between the percentages...

The capital market seismograph had issued a thunderstorm warning nine days ago. The probability of negative turbulence on the stock markets had increased significantly. For precautionary reasons, the equity quota was reduced accordingly. This step is now - in part - being revised again. As you know, the seismograph combines various variables - early economic indicators, interest rate developments or price fluctuations on the stock markets.From these, the probabilities for three market states in the next month are distilled. Green stands for the expectation of a calm, positive market. If green dominates, investors should invest in shares. Yellow indicates the probability of a turbulent positive market - invest, but with a sense of proportion....

The capital market seismograph issues a thunderstorm warning. The probability of negative turbulence on the stock markets increases. It is advisable to further reduce the equity exposure. Within the strategic corridor for equity allocation, which depends on the development of the economy and the market valuation, the capital market seismograph determines the exact positioning of the private-wealth stock market indicator. After a prolonged period in which the seismograph suggested being fully invested within the given range, the probability landscape has now changed dramatically. "The recommendation now is to be very defensive," informs Oliver Schlick, who translates the seismograph's signals into allocation suggestions for Secaro GmbH. As...