News from the editorial

  • Silke Lauenstein

private-wealth stock market indicator ahead of equity quota increase.

(Reading time: 4 - 7 minutes)
  For more than 15 years, private wealth's stock market indicator has been giving equity investors valuable pointers on how to allocate the equity portion of their portfolio. The basic idea is to find out when the relationship between opportunities and risks in equity investments is positive. And when it is not. Anyone who used this as a guide would have been able to participate in the long upward phases on the markets and avoid the major loss phases, at least in part. How does the stock market indicator position itself with a view to the new year? The stock market indicator combines three factors - economic indicator, fair value calculation and the results of the capital market seismograph. The long-term corridor for the equity...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Omikron and the capital market seismograph.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)
Rarely have we been so eager to see the latest result of the capital market seismograph as today. Would the turmoil of the last few trading days and the concerns surrounding the Omicron variant change the positive view of the stock market barometer? "To be sure, the likelihood of calm markets has been dampened. In return, the expectation of a positively volatile market rose. Negative turbulence is still not in sight. On balance, the seismograph's positive market expectations remain unchanged", informs Oliver Schlick, Managing Director of Secaro GmbH, who regularly calculates the model and links it to investment recommendations. What is interesting here is that the emergence of the mutation could reduce the fear of interest rate hikes. "Fed...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Light at the end of the tunnel.

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)
The publication of the ifo Business Climate for the month of November has led to almost unison negative comments. "Worries about a cooling of the global economy", "Corona blues". Indeed, the ifo business cycle clock (chart below left) is ticking swiftly through the cooling quadrant and is now approaching crisis territory alarmingly. The ifo economic traffic light (chart below right) also remains "deep red". In plain language: the ifo Institute now rates the probability of a cyclical phase of expansion at close to zero percent. That does not look good. But there are also two glimmers of hope. First, export expectations have risen slightly again. Above all, however, business expectations in industry have risen slightly again for the first...

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  • Klaus Meitinger

The climate is getting frosty.

(Reading time: 2 - 4 minutes)
Our indicators suggest that there will be greater fluctuations on the stock markets in the coming weeks. This is why the private-wealth stock market indicator already reduced its suggested equity allocation three months ago. The current data from German industry support this decision.

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  • Sonderveröffentlichung: Wittener Institut für Familienunternehmen

The recipe for success of family businesses.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)
Dear Readers, Family businesses are recognized worldwide for their outstanding entrepreneurial achievements. But what exactly is this model of success? What puts it at risk? And how can it be secured in the long term? You will find the answers in this special edition of private wealth, produced in cooperation with the Witten Institute for Family Business (WIFU). If you are not yet a subscriber, all you need to do to read this special edition is to register for a free trial subscription.

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