News from the editorial

  • Klaus Meitinger

Capital market seismograph stays cool in the corona panic.

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Kapitalmarkt Seismograf 1Dear readers,

While the stock markets were shaken by viral cramps, the capital market seismograph remains invested. "We recalculated every day, and the sum of the "good" probabilities green and yellow have moved only minimally from their highs. Accordingly, the probability of negative turbulence increased only minimally despite the panic on the stock markets," Oliver Schlick informs.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (calm market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedging) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest) "From the seismograph's point of view there is therefore currently no reason to pull the ripcord. On the contrary, he continues to recommend an offensive equity weighting," Schlick notes.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Indicators (still) defy the coronavirus.

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ifo konjunkturampel Feb2020Dear readers,

In February, business expectations in the industrial sector continued to improve (blue line in the chart below). The ifo economic traffic light also remained in the "green" range. The trend reversal in the industrial sector announced two months ago thus appears to be still intact.

The German economy seems to be unimpressed by the development around the corona virus, writes the ifo Institute. However, it is doubtful that this will remain so. This is because the recent spread of the virus in Italy was not known at the time of the survey.

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  • Gerd Hübner

The price of CO2 will rise - investors will benefit.

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iStock 1190916514 onlineHow much is nature worth? This question was asked by private wealth in the 01/19 issue, when analyst Lawson Steele of Berenberg Bank predicted that demand for pollution rights would significantly exceed supply in the future. And that therefore the price for a CO2 certificate would have to rise sharply. In recent months, however, the price of CO2 has fallen. This could be an opportunity for investors.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

The future of money

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IStock_picture_currenciesTime and again, wealthy people ask themselves the question about the long-term stability of our monetary system. After all, the euro, dollar, franc and yen are all so-called FIAT money - artificially created means of payment with no value of their own, supported solely by trust in the issuing state. In his article "The end of fiat money" from DB Research's Concept 2030 study, Jim Reid has reflected on our fiat money system and comes to some disturbing conclusions.

Jim Reid, DB Research, considers that a fiat money system is inherently unstable because it is susceptible to high inflation. For it is always too tempting for political decision-makers to create unlimited new money in a monetary system based solely on trust.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Bitcoin - the better gold?

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iStock 905105464In times of monetary policy experiments, there is growing interest in "hard" investments, the supply of which cannot be expanded at will and which therefore serve particularly well as a store of value. Today, the most widely used classic alternative to paper currencies is gold. Manuel Andersch, Senior Currency Analyst of the Bayrische Landesbank, calculates in his study "Megatrend Digitalization - will Bitcoin Gold outpace Gold" that Bitcoin will soon be "harder" than gold. The possible conclusions from this work are breathtaking.

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