At the end of the year, the mood in German industry deteriorated again slightly according to the ifo business climate. Business expectations became more pessimistic. And on the ifo economic clock, the rise towards recovery has stopped for the time being (chart). Only a month ago, the ifo economic indicator had indicated a turnaround for the better. Does this now need to be revised? It is important for you to know that only three consecutive declines in business expectations would erase the positive economic signal. Short-term fluctuations in this indicator are not unusual when the economy is working its way out of a trough. The positioning of the private wealth stock market indicator will therefore not change for the time being. The...

A month ago - at around 14,800 points in the DAX and 23,800 points in the MDAX - we wrote here: "A good acquaintance once said: the worse an investment feels at the moment you buy it, the better its long-term prospects. Voilà. Here we are. It actually feels very bad to invest more heavily in German equities right now. The "sick man of Europe" is in recession, the DAX has been trending downwards for weeks and the shares of small and medium-sized companies in particular have fallen massively in value. Nevertheless, the private wealth stock market indicator is giving an initial buy signal. The specific equity allocation suggested by the stock market indicator will be increased to 100 per cent of the individually planned equity allocation." You...

The fact that Germany has been unable to keep up with the economic growth of other industrialised countries for several years now is worrying. "Nevertheless, we do not want to join the general swan song for our standard of living," says Carolin Schulze Palstring in the current Metzler Private Banking investment strategy and shows how significant increases in efficiency can not only put Germany's economy back on the path to growth. Because this analysis has what it takes to be truly encouraging, we would like to present it to you in abridged form. The diagnosis is unsparing. Things are going downhill. In recent decades, potential growth, i.e. the growth rate that can be achieved when the available production factors are fully utilised,...

A good acquaintance once said: The long-term prospects of an investment are better the worse it feels at the moment of purchase. Voila. Here we are. It actually feels very bad to invest more heavily in German stocks at this very moment. The "sick man of Europe" is in recession, the DAX has been trending downward for weeks, and small and mid-cap stocks in particular have lost massive amounts of value. Nevertheless, the private-wealth stock market indicator gives a first buy signal. You know: The aim of the stock market indicator is not to precisely identify turning points on the stock markets. Rather, it is intended to help identify phases in which it is more promising than average to invest in equities over the long term.Specifically,...

A month ago, the business cycle component of the private wealth stock market indicator had switched to red. The results of the Ifo Business Survey on the German business climate for August confirmed this assessment. The ifo economic traffic light is on red and on the ifo economic clock Germany is now clearly in the crisis quadrant. You know: The decisive role in the analysis of the economic trend in the private-wealth stock market indicator is played by the ifo Institute's monthly survey of business expectations in German industry. Here the participants have a choice between three answer options: They expect their business to be either "more favourable", "unchanged" or "less favourable" over a six-month horizon. The balance value of...