Exchanges & Markets - where do DAX and S&P 500 stand in a year? Part 2
The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers.
The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to the US dollar?
In conclusion, the professionals share their assessments of the US election and BREXIT.
13 What final outcome do you expect for the BREXIT at the end of 2020 (probability)?
Lerbach Competence Circle
Hard BREXITE47 %
negotiated solution 27 %
Further postponement 26 %
14 Who will be US President?
67% of the participants of the Lerbach competence circle believe in an election victory for Joe Biden. Only 33% see Donald Trump in front.
15 Who will win the elections for the US Congress?
The Congressional elections- House of Representatives and Senate.
The majorities there are important because on them depends how many of his plans the new/old US president can implement without problems.
All participants of the Lerbach Competence Circle believe that the Democrats will be able to defend their majority in the House of Representatives.
48 percent expect that the Democrats will also achieve a majority in the Senate. That would be a perfect "blue wave" and Joe Biden could rule through. However, the narrow majority - 52 percent - assumes that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans. That would limit a President Biden's options.
Note: Despite careful selection of the sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.