"Not a cloud in the Wall Street sky."
Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a quiet, rising market on Wall Street. Now the indicator has set a new record. The early warning system for equity investors has never been as positive as it was in October.
As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).
Currently, the probability of a calm, positive US equity market has risen to 97 percent. The probability of a turbulent, volatile market with a positive trend ("yellow") fell to 2 percent. And - what is particularly important - the probability of a bear market ("red") has now fallen just below one percent (chart below).
The seismograph signals a continued positive trend on Wall Street in the coming month. Since the US stock market generally indicates the trend on the world stock markets, the seismograph's statement supports the optimistic orientation of the private-wealth stock market indicator. Although German equities are very highly valued, the model has for some time been proposing an equity quota of 60 percent of the individually identified appropriate proportion of equities.
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