"The storm has died down."
a little more than two weeks ago, the model of the capital market seismograph had suggested cautiously increasing share quotas again. The current evaluation of the team around Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst and Oliver Schlick confirms this. "The storm has passed," Oliver Schlick interprets.
As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).
In recent days, the probability of a calm, positive US equity market ("green") has risen significantly from 81 percent to 91 percent. The probability of a turbulent, volatile market with a positive trend ("yellow") fell from 4 to 2 percent. And the probability of a bear market ("red") continued to decline significantly from 15 to 7 percent. "We last had similarly high figures for a positive market before the start of the turbulence on the fifth of February. We are clearly back in calmer waters," comments Schlick.
The private-wealth stock market indicator had delivered a sell signal for the German stock market at 12500 DAX points ein langfristiges at the end of February. He now only proposes a long-term equity ratio of between zero and 30 percent.
We hope that the capital market seismograph will indicate the direction of short-term fluctuations around the respective long-term trend. This is why we wrote in the last issue of "Neues aus der Redaktion": "In view of the more positive development of the seismograph, it may not be a bad idea to position ourselves closer to the 30 percent at present and take a little more risk again in the short term.
This statement is underlined by the current development of the seismograph and we are now very excited about the next data on the ifo business climate. They will be published on 25 May and should give us new information about the state of the economy in Germany.
Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.