• Klaus Meitinger

"Blue Skies on Wall Street."

(Reading time: 2 - 3 minutes)

Dear Readers,

Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a positive and calm market on Wall Street. This has not changed in the forecast for July either. The seismograph, a kind of early warning system for equity investors, sees no clouds on the horizon despite the price losses of recent days.

As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Currently, the probability of a calm, positive US equity market has risen from 95 percent to 96 percent. The probability of a turbulent, volatile market with a positive trend ("yellow") fell from 4 to 3 percent. And, most importantly, the probability of a bear market ("red") remained at only one percent (chart below).


The seismograph signals a continued positive trend on Wall Street in the coming month. Since the US stock market generally indicates the trend on the world stock markets, the seismograph's statement supports the optimistic orientation of the private-wealth stock market indicator. Although German equities are very highly valued, the model has for some time been proposing an equity quota of 60 percent of the individually identified appropriate proportion of equities.



Klaus Meitinger

On my own account:

In the issue 01/2017 private wealth dealt in detail with the topic artificial intelligence ("superhumanly good").

Reference was also made to the BayernInvest ACATIS KI Aktien Global fund. This was launched at the end of March 2017 and was offered exclusively to institutional investors by BayernInvest. The asset manager ACATIS was responsible for strategy and stock selection.

On July 5, BayernInvest surprisingly dissolved the fund. BayernInvest did not wish to explain the reasons for this when asked by private wealth and referred to unspecified 'aspects which could not be resolved in the short term'.

Acatis is now implementing the idea with Universal Investment. The investment approach remains almost identical. The portfolio of Acatis AI Global Equities (ISIN: DE000A2DMV73) is expected to outperform the MSCI World Index on a long-term average by three percentage points per annum. As described in the article, the strategy is implemented 100 percent by artificial intelligence. "Compared to the BayernInvest fund, there is only one difference. BayernInvest had stipulated that the dividend yield of the portfolio should be approximately as high as that of the MSCI World", explains Kevin Endler, ACATIS: "This restriction is now eliminated. This should be positive for performance. The fewer limitations are placed on the strategy, the more freely artificial intelligence can "unfold".

Details of the new fund, which was launched on 27 June, can be found at www.acatis.de (search term: Acatis AI Global Equities). The fund volume currently amounts to 13.5 million euros. A part of it comes from ACATIS itself.

Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.

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