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  • Klaus Meitinger

Relaxed stock market mood.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)

Dear Readers,

of the capital market seismographs continues to signal calmness. "In the last two weeks, the sum of the "good" probabilities has even increased by more than 90 percent. The seismograph therefore still suggests a maximum weighting of the equity quota," explains Oliver Schlick.

As you know, the seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

At present, the probability of a calm, positive stock market is 65 percent. The probability of a turbulent, volatile market with a positive trend ("yellow") holds at 26 percent. The probability of negative turbulence is now only 9 percent: "Our input variables continue to indicate no stress in the system. Unlike a year ago, this indicates a relaxed Advent season on the stock markets," explains Oliver Schlick.


Currently, the stock weighting of the private-wealth stock market indicator - thanks to the positive signals from the seismograph - is around 30 percent. The next important date for investors is 18 December, when the ifo business climate will be published in December. Should the expectation components rise for the third time in a row, this would signal a turnaround in the German economy. Derprivate-wealth stock market indicator would at this moment raise the range for the recommended equity quota to 30 - 70 percent of the individually planned equity quota. If the capital market seismograph is still positive, the stock weighting would then rise to around 70 percent.


Klaus Meitinger

Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.

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