"Wall Street forecast continues bullish."
Also in October, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the TU Munich gives the green light for equity investments in the USA. Since January, the seismograph has been signaling a quiet market on Wall Street that is rising in line with the trend.
As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).
Currently, the probability of a calm, positive US equity market fell marginally from 97 to 96 percent. The probability of a turbulent, volatile market with a positive trend ("yellow") rose from 2 to 3 percent. And, most importantly, the probability of a bear market ("red") remained at only one percent (chart below).
The seismograph signals a continued positive trend on Wall Street for the coming month. Since the US stock market generally indicates the trend on the world stock markets, the seismograph's statement supports the optimistic orientation of the private-wealth stock market indicator. Although German equities are very highly valued, the model has for some time been proposing an equity quota of 60 percent of the individually identified appropriate proportion of equities.
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