• Klaus Meitinger, Moritz Eckes

The beginning of a new era.

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Dear readers,

We are actually hesitant to use terms like "new era" or "new epoch". But at the beginning of 2022, it seems appropriate to us - because in the future, the conditions for investors will change fundamentally.

The last decade was marked by a boom in all asset classes. Real estate prices doubled. The MSCI World, which aggregates the shares of companies from industrialised countries, climbed by 250 per cent, and the Nasdaq 100 by as much as 580 per cent. A long period of interest rate cuts into negative territory led to a flood of investment capital flowing out of interest rate investments and into stocks and real estate. And because the price of living rose less than 15 percent from mid-2011 to mid-2021, the purchasing power of wealth increased dramatically. That will not be repeated. Because now inflation is back, and at least an interest rate turnaround light is on the agenda.

Things will get really exciting in the future. If inflation rates remain high and the central banks do not act, even more money will flee into scarce stocks and real estate. If those in charge apply the brakes too sharply, a sharp slump looms. Only if the ECB and Fed manage a smooth exit from their extremely expansionary monetary policy will we have a relaxed 2022 ahead of us.

The second big change, of course, has to do with climate change. It is becoming increasingly clear that we can no longer achieve the 1.5 degree target. But it is also clear that policymakers have embarked on the "Road to Zero". The more obvious it becomes that even the two-degree target can only be achieved with great effort, the more restrictive the measures are likely to become. For entrepreneurs and investors, this poses risks - but also enormous opportunities. Experts estimate that the global investment required by 2050 in renewable energies alone will be up to 150 trillion dollars. That is equivalent to almost two times the world's entire national product. It is imperative that selected companies profit from this enormous demand. This is where it is important to position oneself. Our conclusion: index investments are out, selection is in.

The turnaround in interest rates and the fight against climate change will define the next decade - a new era is beginning. If you want to invest successfully, you have to rethink now. To provide you with guidance in these exciting times, we have dedicated many articles in this issue to these two topics. We hope you enjoy reading them.

Yours sincerely

Klaus Meitinger Moritz Eckes
Editor-in-Chief Publisher

  • Klaus Meitinger, Moritz Eckes

Courage. Confidence. Confidence.

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Dear Readers,

Of course the next few months will be tough. No question about that. But we don't have the impression that family businesses are emerging from our network. On the contrary. We hear sentences like: Take responsibility, decide, follow through. It's fantastic how the employees go along in this situation. Now more than ever instead of yes, but. The fact that everything secondary is now relegated to the background and only the survival of the company and the jobs counts, brings out the best in us. And: We have already experienced this twelve years ago. Now comes the great opportunity to gain market share. The fast eat the slow. And the brave eat the despondent. No, we are not worried about the entrepreneurs in our country.

Just as exciting today is the subject of capital investment. Of course, the members of our network were initially shocked when prices fell vertically in March. In the meantime, however, this has changed fundamentally. Now the chances are being sounded out: In the coming months, opportunities are likely to arise, as they occur at most once in a decade. This will be a great time for investors. We have outlined the guidelines for this for you in the cover story starting on page 44. Up-to-date details can be found regularly on our homepage (www.private-wealth.de).

Our greatest concern is that the crisis is being instrumentalised by populists. There are already protests that the Federal Government has reacted too drastically, harming the economy without reason. The figures show that mortality has not risen sharply at all. We ask ourselves what will happen if unemployment and bankruptcies increase drastically in the future. Nassim Taleb formulated some wise thoughts in his book "The Black Swan" 13 years ago. In a nutshell: Let's assume that politicians with courage, brains and foresight would have passed a law requiring bulletproof, permanently locked doors on all aircraft cockpits as of September 10, 2001. It would certainly have prevented what happened on 11 September. Only - no monuments would have been erected to these people. The public, which would see that the measure was completely unnecessary and a waste of money, could even expel them from office.

If it comes to that, we have to fight it. Remain courageous and confident!


Klaus Meitinger Moritz Eckes Chief Editor Publisher

  • Klaus Meitinger

Directional Decisions.

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Dear readers,

In the next few months, we'll probably take big steps back towards normality, thanks to vaccination in Europe. That is wonderful. At the same time, however, it is now high time for some fundamental thinking - about the role of the state, economic policy and monetary policy. It's about exiting emergency mode.

No doubt about it. When disasters strike, the state is called upon. After that, it should back off. Currently, the discussion is exactly the opposite. Father state is supposed to provide higher wages, more social security, more regulation, more justice and more prosperity. Individual responsibility, competition and the market economy are being written in small print right now. Is that what we want? The stories in this issue underline that innovation is made by entrepreneurs - not civil servants.

We are also at a crucial crossroads in monetary policy. Over the next two years, almost all economists predict that Europe will experience an economic boom with nominal growth rates of between five and seven percent. It should be obvious to everyone that zero interest rates or even negative interest rates are not appropriate in such an environment.

We see two possible directions. One is the path of gradual interest rate increases. The infinite source of money would bubble less strongly. Sovereigns would have to be sound and pay somewhat higher interest rates on the small portion of their debt that is up for refinancing. And the party in real assets would probably be over. That might be unpleasant. But investors and government budgets could take it. The alternative is to stick with the negative interest rate policy "so as not to jeopardize the economic recovery." The ECB would then probably have to buy up all bonds and abolish the steering mechanism of interest rates altogether. Governments would have infinite capital to fund "more government" and further fuel growth. Buying real assets on credit would be even more attractive. Economic and real asset booms would accelerate until.... .

We all suspected long ago that this would not go well. Perhaps now comes the ECB's last chance to secure long-term monetary stability. We are curious. Because investment strategies differ in each scenario and can change very quickly, we will comment on this regularly at www.private-wealth.de. Just sign up.

Yours sincerely

Klaus Meitinger Moritz Eckes
Editor in Chief Publisher

  • Klaus Meitinger

Insecure times.

thumb EditorialDear readers,
at private wealth, it is our goal to present investors and entrepreneurs on our homepage only with information that is highly relevant to this target group.
In order to support you in your investment decisions in these turbulent times, we publish, for example, the results of models that you won't find anywhere else.
So far this has brought real added value. For example, the capital market seismograph - the results of which we publish regularly - advised a massive reduction in the equity allocation when the DAX stood at 11,000 points on 10 March.
Now we are in constant contact with our network to find the right time for you to re-enter the stock market.

To find out exactly how these models work, read "Valuables from the network" after your registration and select the article: Model Check.
We hope this will provide you with inspiration and orientation.


Klaus Meitinger      Moritz Eckes
Chief Editor            Publisher

  • Klaus Meitinger, Moritz Eckes

The ultimate value storage.

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Dear Readers,

what keeps its value? This question not only concerns our network, it was also omnipresent at the Lerbach round. The large states have apparently exceeded the "point of no return" due to the Corona rescue measures, up to which they were able to control their debt burden without the financing of the central banks. So the central banks will (have to) continue to channel money into the cycle. If the money supply now increases much faster than the quantity of goods, won't financial assets - bonds, cash, account balances - at some point become relatively less valuable?

The central function of money - apart from its capacity as a means of payment and unit of account - is that of a store of value. If it came under threat in the past, the citizens of the country concerned exchanged their capital for better money. In the last century, this was usually the US dollar. Today the situation is fundamentally different. The major currencies themselves - dollar, euro, yen - are in danger. Between them there is a balance of wavering giants. No chance to hide there.

Flight into real estate, land or gold is considered the best way out. But even that has its pitfalls. All these assets are under the influence of a state in distress. Their possessions can be prohibited or taxed at will. Perhaps this explains the recent rise in the price of Bitcoin. Only - as long as its storage location can be hacked, it is not safe either. The ultimate store of value for us therefore remains a participation in global entrepreneurship - let's just call this the world share. Because these companies provide necessary products and services, they should be profitable in the long run. Their role as employers also protects them from state intervention and their shareholdings from excessive taxation.

Keeping this in mind is especially important today. The next six months could be turbulent on the stock markets. If there is a further significant decline in share prices in view of the rising number of infections and tougher lockdowns, it is important to keep your nerves. And to take advantage of the opportunities to replenish the value memory. Because the more difficult the economic situation becomes, the more extensive the government rescue packages and central bank financing become. And the more paper money there will be relative to the companies and their products. In the long term, global shares could then become very scarce - and correspondingly expensive.

Stay courageous and confident - and have a safe and merry christmas!


Klaus Meitinger      Moritz Eckes
Editor-in-Chief        Publisher

  • Dr. Günter Kast

Cargo chic.

22 Wong 1

Entrepreneurship. The Wong family in Papeete, Tahiti, has developed a very special business model out of necessity. Their Compagnie Polynésienne de Transport Maritime combines passenger and cargo shipping, heading for two unusual destinations in the South Pacific: the remote Marquesas Islands, where painter Paul Gauguin is buried. And the island of Pitcairn, where the mutineers of the "Bounty" once hid and where their descendants still live today.

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