• Klaus Meitinger

Lerbacher Runde urges caution.

(Reading time: 1 - 2 minutes)

The slight easing in the trade conflict between the USA and the European Union makes it less likely that Donald Trump - as originally announced - will now be able to increase customs duties on cars from the EU in the near future.

However, according to the Lerbach Round Table, the trade issue is far from being off the table for investors. In the dispute between the USA and China there are still no signs of rapprochement. Investors - according to the professionals - should therefore be cautious in the coming months.

The Lerbach Round Table is a competence group of 40 bankers, family officers and asset managers that was founded in 2017 by private wealth and the asset manager Robeco. The aim is to provide wealthy investors with answers to current questions on all aspects of capital investment;

At present, the network is primarily affected by the global trade conflict. How does the Lerbacher Runde assess the current situation and how should investors react?

Slightly more than 60 percent of the experts are of the opinion that the new US tariffs on Chinese products announced for September will actually be implemented. China, the professionals suspect, would then react with intensified retaliation.

As a result, this has had a massive impact on the growth path of the global economy. In this case, half of the professionals would significantly reduce the growth forecast for 2018 and above all 2019 by 0.3 to 0.75 percent. According to the experts, the danger of recession in 2019 would rise in probability ranges between 25 and 30 percent.

Overall, the experts concluded, the risks were too high to be ignored in the asset allocation. The Lerbach Round is proposing adjustments to the April survey, especially in the equity component.

On average, the equity quota in the portfolio of an investor willing to take an average risk is reduced by seven percentage points from 47 to 40 percent;

These seven percentage points are added to the "cash" position, which now expands a proud 18 per cent in the custody account.

According to the Lerbach Round, investors are well positioned to react to possible price setbacks in a hot autumn.

- The editorial staff

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