The members of the Lerbach Competence Group initiated by private wealth and Robeco are responsible for the investment strategy of 40 family offices, private banks and asset management companies. This is how the professionals position themselves on the stock markets after the rollercoaster ride.
We asked the professionals what a balanced portfolio of liquid asset classes of an average investor willing to take risks should look like in the long term. And how they would currently run such a portfolio.
Boris Johnson's Conservative Party won the absolute majority in the British Parliament. This has made one of the core risks of recent months more predictable. The House of Commons will now quickly adopt the necessary laws for Britain's withdrawal from the EU on 31 January. What comes after 31 January 2020, however, is less clear. This is when tough and probably long trade agreements with the EU begin.
The Lerbach Round is therefore also split when it comes to the impact of the election on the way in which the future Brexit will be made. Half of the experts now expect a higher probability of a soft Brexit. After all, Boris Johnson could now easily get the withdrawal agreement negotiated with the EU through the House of Commons in January. The European Parliament would then have to give its assent. But this is probably only a pro forma matter.
The European Central Bank has given concrete form to its medium-term policy guideline. It will continue its bond purchase program until September 2018, but will reduce the monthly purchase volume from currently 60 to 30 billion.
However, the Lerbach Round does not see this as a fundamental turnaround in monetary policy. Instead, it interprets the ECB's plan as a signal that monetary policy will remain very loose.
The slight easing in the trade conflict between the USA and the European Union makes it less likely that Donald Trump - as originally announced - will now be able to increase customs duties on cars from the EU in the near future.
However, according to the Lerbach Round Table, the trade issue is far from being off the table for investors. In the dispute between the USA and China there are still no signs of rapprochement. Investors - according to the professionals - should therefore be cautious in the coming months.
The Lerbach Round Table is a competence group of 40 bankers, family officers and asset managers that was founded in 2017 by private wealth and the asset manager Robeco. The aim is to provide wealthy investors with answers to current questions on all aspects of capital investment;
There are currently four questions driving the investment experts around:
The grace period is over - can Emmanuel Macron get France going? Bundestag elections - what would a black-yellow government bring to the German economy and the capital markets? Euro boom - how long will the upswing in the European currency last and what does it mean for Europe's export economy? Price targets reached in the US equity market - how should investors now trade?
// 01. Can Macron get France going?
Emmanuel Macron wants to reform the French labour market by the end of the summer. 84 percent of the experts believe that this plan will have a significant impact on the capital market. The chances of success are good. After all, two thirds of the respondents believe that Macron will achieve its first results by the end of September. As a litmus test, they see it as whether progress can be made on the following points against the resistance of the trade unions: Relaxation of protection against dismissal, breaking up compensation claims in the event of dismissal, flexibilisation in the drafting of employment contracts. Conditionality of unemployment benefits and abolition of the 35-hour week.