News from the editorial

  • Klaus Meitinger

Full steam ahead.

thumb ifo Index Februar2017

Dear Readers,

The Ifo business cycle indicator has made up for last month's decline. It is noteworthy that companies are now assessing their current situation better than they have been for more than five years. There is no doubt about it: Germany is in the midst of a veritable economic boom. The fact that expectations for the coming six months have improved even further in this situation is astonishing. At some point in the coming months there will be a turnaround in expectations. Because if the economy cannot (even) get better, it simply gets worse. This needs to be monitored closely, as it could trigger a sell signal for equities.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

In the middle of a boom.

thumb ifo Index march2017

Dear Readers,

The mood in German companies is getting better and better. The ifo business climate for industry has now reached its highest level since July 2011. Expectations for the coming six months are even more optimistic than in February. And export expectations are also increasing. All in all, as the graphs attached show, the German economy is

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  • Klaus Meitinger

Germany continues to boom.

thumb ifo uhr april2017

Dear Readers,

The current business situation in German companies is currently assessed as more positive than it has been since mid-2011. In the construction industry, the assessment of the situation even rose to its highest level since reunification. The results of the surveys on the ifo business climate index in April now point to a significant acceleration in real economic growth in areas above the two percent mark. This is also underlined by the ifo traffic light. The signal there is clearly "green".

Germany is still in a boom scenario (see chart). This is also reflected on the stock markets. The DAX has now reached a new high and is already being paid at around 135 percent of its fair value. The overvaluation in the MDAX segment is even more massive.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

That's as good as it gets.

thumb ifo index juni2017

Dear Readers,

The ifo Institute reports new records in business climate, business situation and business expectations. "In the German executive floors," write the researchers themselves, "there is high spirits". A glance at the ifo economic clock shows that the German economy has never been so deep in boom territory before. It goes without saying that in this situation, the ifo traffic light will also keep to "dark green" (graphs below).

The boom in the German economy is progressing so briskly. Capacities are now being used at above-average rates almost everywhere. In the construction industry in particular, they are already very tense. In view of this boom, the insanity of a "one size fits all" monetary policy in Europe is once again being revealed.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

"Blue Skies on Wall Street."

Dear Readers,

Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a positive and calm market on Wall Street. This has not changed in the forecast for July either. The seismograph, a kind of early warning system for equity investors, sees no clouds on the horizon despite the price losses of recent days.

As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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