Dear Readers, According to the ifo Business Cycle Clock, the German economy is moving back towards recession territory (Chart 1 below). The ifo Business Climate fell again in January, and business expectations in industry also declined again after a recovery in December. As a result, the ifo economic traffic light jumped back to "red" (chart 2). However, in view of the renewed loosening of the economy, this comes as no surprise. For the private-wealth stock market indicator, this is not (yet) a disaster. Only a threefold decline would be tantamount to a sell signal. What is important is that no one would have expected a sustained negative trend at the moment. In the past two weeks, we have attended a large number of online conferences...

Dear Readers, For more than two years now, we have been regularly informing you about developments on the capital market seismograph. Our aim is to help you better assess opportunities and risks on the stock market. At the same time, we use it to derive short-term changes in the equity ratio in the private wealth stock market indicator.

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to the US dollar? In conclusion, the professionals share their assessments of the US election and BREXIT. 13 What final outcome do you expect for the BREXIT at the end of 2020 (probability)? Lerbach Competence Circle Hard BREXITE47 % negotiated solution...

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. The questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympics were answered in past issues of this forecast series, as were the questions about the price development of oil, gold, Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to the US dollar? Today the professionals take a look at the German and the American stock market. 11. where will the DAX be quoted in August 2021 (probability)? Lerbach Competence Circle Below 11000 points12 % Between 11000 and 13000 points 30 Between...

The editors of private wealth have collected 15 questions and presented them to the Lerbach Competence Group - a network of private bankers, family officers and asset managers. Questions about the next German Chancellor, Italy's debt problem, Europe's future, the German labour market, autonomous cars and the Olympic Games have already been answered. Now the experts are turning their attention to the capital markets - how are the prices of oil, gold, the Bitcoin and the exchange rate of the euro in relation to the US dollar developing? 7. where is the price of Brent oil in August 2021 (probability)? Lerbach Competence Circle Under $3513 % Between $35 and $4529 % Between $45 and $5537 % Over $5521 % 8. where do you see the gold price...