News from the editorial

  • Klaus Meitinger

"Year of investment 2018 - it's going to be exciting."

ifo index 11 2017

Dear Readers,

Investors have had an extremely successful year. And the overwhelming majority of capital market experts expect share prices to rise again next year. In doing so, they refer to the extraordinarily positive economic development in the world.

However, this expectation of sustained high economic momentum is likely to be reflected at least to a large extent in the high valuations on the stock markets. For investors it is therefore crucial: Will it be even better in the future than already expected today? For this reason, the private-wealth stock market indicator attaches great importance to the expectations of managers in German industry. This is surveyed monthly as part of the ifo business climate surveys.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

"Wall Street celebrates the New Year."

Seismograph Sept 17

Dear Readers,

the capital market seismograph of the team of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst (TU Munich) starts the year 2018, as he ended the year 2017 - in a buying mood. The stock market barometer continues to give the green light for equity investments in the USA. For a year now, the seismograph has been signaling a quiet market on Wall Street that is rising in line with the trend.

As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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  • Klaus Meitinger

"Is the showdown starting?"

ifoindex Jan2018

Dear Readers,

the situation is getting worse. For the second time in a row, business expectations in industry have declined. Three consecutive declines would trigger a sell signal in the private wealth exchange model. We are therefore eagerly awaiting the results of the ifo economic survey in February.

This clouding of future prospects has been somewhat lost in the general euphoria. Finally, the business climate index as a whole rose again to the record level last reached in November.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

"Black Clouds on Wall Street - Selling."

Dear Readers,

A week ago the team around Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst and Oliver Schlick wrote to us. The capital market seismograph is still giving the green light for equity investments: "But that can change very quickly now. We have our finger on the sales button",

Today is the day. "The probability of a bear market has increased significantly. This has triggered a sell signal in our model. The model recommends significantly reducing the current equity quota," says Oliver Schlick.

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  • Klaus Meitinger

"Finger on sales button."

Dear Readers,

until Monday, the sky over Wall Street was still blue. Then dark clouds came up incredibly fast. The team led by Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst and Oliver Schlick therefore recalculated the capital market seismograph using current data;

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