Dear Readers, A month ago there was still reason to fear that the German economy would fall into a downturn scenario in the autumn. The current results of the Ifo business climate index have impressively wiped this fear aside.

Dear Readers, Following its rapid rise in recent months, Germany's most important economic indicator has entered the reverse gear. Although the ifo business climate remained at a high level in November, expectations in industry declined slightly. Obviously, the discussions about Donald Trump's future trade policy have already slightly dampened export expectations.

Dear Readers, The ifo economic indicator ended 2016 with an optimistic trend. After the decline in November, business expectations in industry improved again. Export expectations, which are so important for Germany, also increased in view of the falling euro exchange rate and the resulting improvement in price competitiveness.

Dear Readers, The team led by Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich has just sent us the latest data from the capital market seismograph. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Dear Readers, The Ifo business cycle indicator has made up for last month's decline. It is noteworthy that companies are now assessing their current situation better than they have been for more than five years. There is no doubt about it: Germany is in the midst of a veritable economic boom. The fact that expectations for the coming six months have improved even further in this situation is astonishing. At some point in the coming months there will be a turnaround in expectations. Because if the economy cannot (even) get better, it simply gets worse. This needs to be monitored closely, as it could trigger a sell signal for equities.