Is the recession over?
The ifo business climate index delivered a positive surprise at the end of the year. For the third time in a row, the business expectations of the 9,000 entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute rose significantly in December. In ifo diction, this is considered a sign of a turnaround in the German economy.
The details: After an almost continuous decline since February 2022, the mood among entrepreneurs has been steadily improving since October. The pointer on the ifo business cycle clock (chart above) is now moving back in the direction of recovery. And the ifo economic traffic light (chart below) even shows green. It thus signals a probability of more than two-thirds for an expansionary development of the German economy in the next...