Our indicators suggest that there will be greater fluctuations on the stock markets in the coming weeks. This is why the private-wealth stock market indicator already reduced its suggested equity allocation three months ago. The current data from German industry support this decision.

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Sentiment in German industry has deteriorated further. After peaking in March 2021, business expectations in the manufacturing sector have now fallen for the fifth time in a row. And export expectations also fell significantly. In short, the summer euphoria has completely evaporated. On the ifo Business Cycle Clock, the German economy is now on the verge of leaving the boom sector and entering the cooling segment (chart). This confirms the risk of a turnaround in the economy and underpins our decision to set the business cycle component - one of three factors in the private-wealth stock market indicator - to "red". We explained the logic to you a month ago. Supply bottlenecks continue to massively disrupt production. Our fears expressed...

The ifo business climate survey for July confirmed the downward trend in German industry. This means that one of the three factors of the private-wealth stock market indicator - the economic component - has turned red. Investors should reduce their equity exposure and take some profits. The details: after peaking in February 2021, business expectations in the industrial sector have fallen for the fourth time in a row. In principle, the rule has applied in the past: if business expectations in the manufacturing sector fall three times in a row, this signals a trend reversal in the economy and provides a sell signal for equity investors. This is why profit-taking was actually already due four weeks ago. However, we deliberately refrained...

When the party is at its best, they say, you should leave. The equity markets have been doing well for months, and the private-wealth stock market indicator is fully on board with an overweight in equities. But now the economic component of the model is giving a sell signal. Is it time to take profits? Let's take a closer look at the latest ifo business climate. It is true that sentiment in the German economy improved further overall in June. However, expectations in the industrial sector, which are decisive for the stock market indicator, fell for the third time in a row. They had already peaked in March at 25.2 points. In the past, such a development often signaled a turnaround in the economy. Business expectations frequently peaked...