Dear Readers, The ifo business climate is pointing downwards again in October. The most important component for us - the expectations in industry for the future - also fell back after a twofold increase. After a brief recovery, the mood in the export sector has also been dampened. The ifo traffic light has thus switched from "green" to "yellow". At yellow traffic lights, the ifo Institute assumes that there is a high degree of uncertainty about the economic regime.

October 28 will be a fateful day for Brazil. The huge country with the size of a continent has to choose between two candidates for the presidency in the run-off election. You couldn't be more different.According to surveys, the left-wing candidate Fernando Haddad currently receives 43 percent of the votes. "That's not zero, but honestly: I don't see any chance of his victory," says André Müller Carioba, German-Brazilian and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the LIDE Deutschland business network.

Dear Readers, "The pace at which the probability of a bear market increases is worrying," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days. As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Dear Readers, The new data of the capital market seismograph reach us just now. "The climate shift on the capital market, which has been the subject of discussion for quite some time, is now reflected in the probabilities of the seismograph and leads to the recommendation of a strong reduction in the share quota", Oliver Schlick informs, "the advice is to reduce the weight of shares considerably." As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

Dear Readers, we have read a lot about the topic "Italy" in the last days. Lucas Daalder, Robeco's chief investment strategist, wrote a very good summary. Of particular interest is his analysis of the distribution of Italy's public debt. Contrary to what is often said, Italy is obviously not primarily indebted to its own countrymen. Major creditors are foreigners (35 per cent) and central banks (just under 20 per cent) This underlines Italy's potential for blackmail in the negotiations with the other euro countries. Political stock markets may have short legs. In the long term, the path to a transfer union, which is also discussed in the current issue of private wealth (see Lerbacher Runde, page 57ff.), is a danger that should not be...