Dear Readers, The Munich-based ifo Institute presented the August results of its survey on the business climate and business expectations. According to the report, the mood in the German economy has deteriorated noticeably recently. The important expectation component in the manufacturing industry has even fallen below its long-term average. This puts the industry back in the downturn quadrant of the ifo watch. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again (graphics below).

Dear Readers, A month ago there was still reason to fear that the German economy would fall into a downturn scenario in the autumn. The current results of the Ifo business climate index have impressively wiped this fear aside.

Dear Readers, Following its rapid rise in recent months, Germany's most important economic indicator has entered the reverse gear. Although the ifo business climate remained at a high level in November, expectations in industry declined slightly. Obviously, the discussions about Donald Trump's future trade policy have already slightly dampened export expectations.

Dear Readers, The ifo economic indicator ended 2016 with an optimistic trend. After the decline in November, business expectations in industry improved again. Export expectations, which are so important for Germany, also increased in view of the falling euro exchange rate and the resulting improvement in price competitiveness.

Dear Readers, The team led by Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich has just sent us the latest data from the capital market seismograph. As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).