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  • Gerd Hübner, Klaus Meitinger

Before a golden decade?

(Reading time: 3 - 5 minutes)
Economy. After the economic slump in 2020 global economic momentum initially picked up rapidly in 2021. Now supply bottlenecks are putting the brakes on. How does the Lerbach Roundtable view the short- and medium-term prospects for the global economy? "The question of the economy is, of course, always at the beginning of every investment strategy session," outlines Kai Röhrl, Robeco, "because growth means more sales and higher profits. This should then also be reflected in the equity markets." Although the recovery has stalled somewhat recently due to material shortages, supply bottlenecks and a spike in Corona numbers, the Round remains confident looking ahead to 2022. In the U.S., they have real growth of 4.2 percent on the books, and...

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  • Gerd Hübner, Klaus Meitinger

The hot twenties.

(Reading time: 4 - 7 minutes)
Climate as an investment factor. The fight against climate change will dramatically change the way we do business in the future. This will widen the gap between winners and losers among companies. The Lerbacher Runde explains how investors should react to this. "There is an interesting study," says Stephan Kemper, BNP Paribas WM Private Banking: "On behalf of the 'Financial Times', the impact of a CO 2 price of 100 euros was calculated for the 1000 largest listed companies - today the CO 2 price is just under 60 euros. The result: the top ten percent would gain 30 percent in market value, the bottom 50 percent would lose." Welcome to the net zero path. "Climate change is a driver of enormous upheaval," Axel Angermann, FERI Trust, is...

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  • Gerd Hübner, Klaus Meitinger

Dangerous balancing act.

(Reading time: 4 - 7 minutes)
Inflation. Prices are rising faster than they have in 30 years. Is this really just a temporary phenomenon? Or is the genie of inflation now out of the bottle? And above all: how will the central banks react? The Lerbacher Runde analyses. If the Lerbach Round is to define the question that will decide the investment trend in 2022, the answer is clear: Is the rise in inflation really just temporary, or will prices continue to rise and a real turnaround in interest rates occur? "After all, the current valuations in the equity and real estate markets are hinged on one variable alone - low interest rates," explains Lutz Welge, Bank Julius Baer. "First of all, we should not overestimate the current figures," classifies Thomas Neukirch, HQ...

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  • Gerd Hübner, Klaus Meitinger

Attractive alternatives.

(Reading time: 4 - 8 minutes)
Interest rate substitute. Structuring a successful portfolio has become difficult today. Firstly, interest-bearing securities with good credit ratings no longer preserve the purchasing power of assets when inflation rises. And secondly, in the risk scenario - with rising interest rates - both equities and bonds are negatively affected. The Lerbach Round's solution: more alternative investments must be added to the portfolio. In the past, Bunds had two roles in the portfolio. They brought reliable returns and were a kind of insurance in the event of a stock market crash. But that is now definitely over. Today, the money invested in them is losing purchasing power.And the insurance thing is probably no longer working either. Because in the...

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  • Gerd Hübner, Klaus Meitinger

Boom, bubble - bust?

(Reading time: 4 - 8 minutes)
Market Analysis. The prices of tangible assets - shares and real estate - have risen extremely sharply over the last ten years. Is this boom justified? Can it continue? Or will it be followed - as so often - by a slump? The Lerbacher Runde does the research. In retrospect, the last decade will go down in the history books as the decade in which investors became very wealthy more quickly than ever before. As the boom decade. As the era of asset price inflation. Some numbers: Over the past decade, the overall cost of living in Germany rose by about 15 percent and collectively agreed wages by 25 percent. At the same time, the MSCI World, which aggregates companies from industrialized countries, climbed 250 percent. That was also almost 15...

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  • Sonderveröffentlichung: Schroder Investment Management (Europe) S.A., German Branch

Lucrative credit investments.

(Reading time: 4 - 7 minutes)
Private Real Estate Loans. Banks are pulling back from lending on commercial real estate projects. Private investors can fill this gap. The incentive: attractive returns, regardless of developments on the capital markets. "Because there are projects with different risk profiles, the market offers a broad field for every type of investor," says Peter Begler, Alternatives Director at Schroders. "It's actually a curious situation," Peter Begler reflects: "We have a real estate boom all over Europe. But banks are increasingly pulling out of the real estate lending business." And that, says the director of alternative products at asset manager Schroders, has nothing to do with the fact that there are no longer any lucrative investments in...

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