The seismograph is a kind of weather forecast for the stock market. Using a complex mathematical model that includes both economic variables and direct market indicators, the model estimates the probability of three market conditions in the coming month. Green" means that a calm market with a positive trend is expected. "Yellow" indicates a turbulent market with positive expectations - investing is okay, but hedging is indicated. And "red" indicates a turbulent market with negative expectation. The advice is then: Do not invest.

Dear Readers, In April, the ifo business climate index plunged to its lowest level ever measured. The fact that the current mood among German companies is catastrophic is not surprising given the global shutdowns. More critically, expectations for the coming six months have also continued to fall massively. In plain language, this means that even though the current situation is already extremely bleak, companies do not see any improvement even on a six-month horizon, but expect it to deteriorate further.

Professor Tom Rüsen of the Witten Institute for Family Research (WiFU) examines how successful entrepreneurial families have reacted to crisis situations in the past His analysis provides assistance in dealing with current challenges Family businesses are characterized by the close connection between ownership and management of the company. This enables them to define and implement measures for dealing with the crisis situation very quickly. Defensive measures are aimed at limiting the damage. Offensive measures use the crisis in a targeted manner to further develop the organisation or the business model.

The members of the Lerbach Competence Group initiated by private wealth and Robeco are responsible for the investment strategy of 40 family offices, private banks and asset management companies. This is how the professionals position themselves on the stock markets after the rollercoaster ride. We asked the professionals what a balanced portfolio of liquid asset classes of an average investor willing to take risks should look like in the long term. And how they would currently run such a portfolio.

For 16 years, the stock market indicator of private wealth has been providing valuable information for investors in the German stock market. Since many members of our network have asked about the background to this model, we are happy to explain how we work. The editorial staff regularly informs its readers about the current signals of the in-house stock market indicator. What is behind this model?