Opinionleader


Complicated new world.

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Richard Smith-Bingham, Director EMEA of the Global Risk Center at Marsh & McLennan, believes companies need to prepare for disruptive change.

It is my job to help companies and entrepreneurs identify critical risk factors for their business. However, the revolutionary political and technological changes that are currently taking place make me sceptical about the appropriateness of the euphoria that is currently driving stock market prices higher. In my view, global companies in particular will have to adapt to a more complex and perhaps also more volatile climate in the future.

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No end of the boom in sight.

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"In the German metropolises, demand for living space will exceed supply for even longer," says Jochen Möbert of Deutsche Bank: "House prices will therefore continue to rise.

I can understand that many are sceptical about the years of real estate boom in this country. Above all, because residential construction is actually growing strongly. The number of building permits finally rose last year to 375,000, an increase of 20 percent on the previous year and the highest level since 1999. And according to our calculations, the number of completed apartments is likely to have risen to 276,000 by 2016 - ten percent more than in 2015;

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"The trend in purchase prices is breaking."

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"The prices for condominiums are no longer in any meaningful relation to the framework conditions. Those who invest risk their equity", warns Harald Simons, Empirica AG, member of the Council of Real Estate Experts.

The industry is currently discussing above all a possible rise in interest rates as a risk to real estate prices. It overlooks the fact that the interplay between supply and demand for housing may also lead to such a break in the trend.

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Inflation is coming back.

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The price increases of recent months are not a temporary phenomenon, meint Peter E. Huber, Vorstand of asset manager StarCapital: "They mark the beginning of a new era".

After 35 years of disinflationary tendencies nobody believes in a real comeback of inflation anymore. In my opinion, this will be the biggest surprise of the coming years.

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"The worst is yet to come."

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Uwe Eilers, Geneon Wealth Management, is convinced that leaving the EU will damage Britain's economy in the long term. "Keep your hands off British assets."

I am well aware that it is not easy to argue against the current economic data. After all, the big slump in the British economy, which many had expected after the British Yes to Brexit, failed to materialise. On the contrary, the British stock market has performed very well. And many economists are currently revising their forecasts for economic growth upwards, so everything is green on the island?

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Brexit risks are overestimated.

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The pound depreciated significantly after the Brexit decision. "This will stimulate the economy," says Christian Jasperneite, M.M. Warburg: "British assets offer positive surprise potential."

Have you followed the current forecasts of economists on developments in Great Britain? Then you've probably noticed that most analysts have started to raise their expectations for economic growth on the island. In fact, three months ago they were still assuming a meagre increase of 0.9 percent for the current year. Today, the estimate is already at 1.4 percent;

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The real D.J. Trump.

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What will really change in the World Concert under a US President Donald J. Trump? Seit of the election, countless scientists, economists, analysts and political scientists have commented - private wealth summarizes their opinions.

In the Anglo-Saxon world, there is a hübschen Spruch if a person is to concretize their position or reveal their true character: "Will the real Donald Trump please stand up."

Before the US election, commentators outbid each other with negative forecasts in case Trump won. After the election - also under the impression of rising share prices - everything doesn't seem quite so bad anymore. This is of course associated with the expectation that the true Donald Trump would differ significantly vom Wahlkämpfer Trump. Or at least be slowed down by his republican party friends in Congress. "This, however, is pure hope", meint Markus Kaim, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik: "In view of the majorities in Congress, Trump will be able to govern in the next two years. That he can be restrained in the process is reine Spekulation."

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The economist with a mission.

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012 Hans Werner Sinn foto ifo hw sinn 22 d 10552995 en

Appreciation. Hans-Werner Sinn's terms of office as President of the ifo Institute and Professor at the LMU Munich will end on 31 March. Eine of the most influential voices of science in the economic policy debate is leaving the big stage.

"I want to bring rationality into the public debate," is how Hans-Werner Sinn describes his motivation. His arguments are like genes in the public discourse, which spread inexorably once they have been presented.

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