The Lerbach Round.
Panel of experts. The Lerbach group - bankers, asset managers and family officers - meet every early summer in Schloss Bensberg to provide investors with inspiration and orientation. In 2018 the meeting will be particularly explosive. After zehn Jahren upswing and low interest rate, monetary policy and economy seem to be on einem Wendepunkt. What happens now on the interest rate and stock markets?
Why do the prices on the capital markets fluctuate so dramatically, although the current turnover and profits of the companies have changed almost nothing at all?
The American Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller gives a simple explanation. The markets, he says, are driven by stories, by "stories". At any given time there is a whole set of possible future fundamental developments, each of which is underpinned by certain probabilities. The majority opinion defines the history on which investors then orient themselves. However, even a small change in these probabilities could bring a completely different "narrative" to the fore and thus have a major impact on the prices of securities. "In the past year, the dominant story was that of the Goldilocks economy - the Lerbach Round expected an acceleration of growth momentum and higher corporate earnings while at the same time low inflation rates, expansive monetary policy and unusually low interest rates. Or in short: ein "Paradise for investors", remembers Kai Röhrl, Head of Third Party Distribution at the host Robeco. They even invented an acronym for it: NICE - Non-Inflationary Continuous Expansion - steady, inflation-free upswing. And indeed, the markets have been quite nice to investors for a very long time.
In the meantime, doubts have grown about this fundamental history. Not only is there now a heated discussion again about a possible return of inflation. And therefore, of course, also through rising interest rates. As well as the reduction of the worldwide supply of liquidity by the central banks. Even the steady upswing no longer seems quite so certain, after the early economic indicators cooled off significantly in the spring.
In addition, there are geopolitical irritations such as the conflict between the USA and Iran and the hostilities in the Middle East. And even though political stock markets generally have short legs, there is still a feeling of unease in the face of fundamental socio-political changes. For more than seven decades, the guiding principle of an increasingly open society had provided us with stability and growth. Today, populists and exclusivists are propagating a return to isolationism and protectionism. If they had even more supporters, the loss of prosperity worldwide would be enormous.
All in all, the probability of persistently paradisiacal states has quite obviously recently diminished. That explains the spring turbulence. However, a new story has not yet emerged. The decisive question for wealthy people is now: What comes next? Then how do I position myself?
Therefore, there could not have been a better time for this year's Lerbach round.wichtigsten Fragen proven capital market experts give in six intensive discussion rounds answers to the 14 wichtigsten Fragen of wealthy investors. Und name 24 inspiring investment ideas. ®
Author: Klaus Meitinger