• Christoph Eibl

"It's a cobalt hype."

"The prices for cobalt and lithium are currently significantly exaggerated. Viele Suppliers want to make a fast euro with the E-Auto-Story", warns Christoph Eibl, Tiberius Asset Management: "Don't let yourself be seduced".

One thing I have to say in advance. I am convinced that we will see higher long-term prices for strategic metals, which are important for a new energy mix. Wenn Sie therefore have five to ten years time, kaufen Sie calmly cobalt or lithium. <font color="#ffff00">-=Lieferung Rotterdam=- proudly presents I'll have my warehouse warrant issued. There you go. Dann you will certainly make a profit. Someday.

If you do not want to wait so long and are not you in the meantime massive price collapses also not indifferent, sollten Sie better wait. Because what we see today with lithium and cobalt is a classic hype, as it occurs again and again in the raw materials sector.

I've seen so much already. Erinnern Do you still remember the topic catalyst and the palladium boom of the year 2000? China's insatiable copper hunger? The hunt for the "last" rare earths for the high-tech industry? And now cobalt, lithium and the e-car.

The story seems so simple. Doch as always, if something is too beautiful to be true, it is not true.

In order to be able to classify in which phase individual commodity markets are currently, I use a few simple indicators. For example, I count the junior exploration companies. In the last twelve months at least 20 new cobalt and lithium exploration companies have entered the market. Others have simply changed their focus from gold and copper to lithium and cobalt. These speculative penny stocks acquire for 100000 dollars a small lithium or cobalt exploration deposit at the end of the world. This is never developed, but suddenly they are a lithium player. You can now present curves that go from bottom left to top right, attracting investors. We call these companies "Flights by Night" because they disappear as quickly as they can be seen in the sky at night. They always appear in large numbers when a bubble forms somewhere.

At the same time, there are usually a few new funds that buy commodities physically and organize a shortage in the short term. We see this phenomenon today as well. Wasn't Cobalt 27 a company founded that acquired zwei Prozent of cobalt annual production?

Lassen Sie are not mistaken. In the end the game is dominated by the big traders like Glencore and Co. who really own mines. We ourselves are mine operators and know something about raw material production. There are many supernatural stocks - the only question is at what price it is worthwhile to process them. Today, the major lithium and cobalt producers have many free capacities. Sollten the prices remain at the current levels, they can quite simply ramp up their production. The supply is already increasing significantly. And the price is dropping.

Also with the paragraph I have a few question marks. Just think about it: How many electric cars will Daimler sell in the next twelve months? How quickly will vom Verbrennungsmotor be able to switch to the electric car? When will the battery factory in China quadruple its volume? And when will the real demand for lithium and cobalt actually grow into the orders of magnitude anticipated by the price of these raw materials today?

I'm telling you: Das lasts. In a year or two investors will then be disappointed to find that the hoped-for giant orders for lithium and cobalt have failed to materialize. And maybe even the fuel cell will become an issue again. The lithium-ion battery would then face competition. And prices could implode.

In the raw materials sector, it is always a matter of extractability and availability of certain metals at the time when they are needed. Today, more than enough cobalt and lithium is degradable to meet the expected demand. Buying in hype has never been a good idea. Stay relaxed, wait and see. And resist the temptation to invest in Flights by Night. Ich I'm pretty sure that lithium and cobalt will see even lower prices. ®

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