News from the editorial


That's as good as it gets.

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thumb ifo index juni2017

Dear Readers,

The ifo Institute reports new records in business climate, business situation and business expectations. "In the German executive floors," write the researchers themselves, "there is high spirits". A glance at the ifo economic clock shows that the German economy has never been so deep in boom territory before. It goes without saying that in this situation, the ifo traffic light will also keep to "dark green" (graphs below).

The boom in the German economy is progressing so briskly. Capacities are now being used at above-average rates almost everywhere. In the construction industry in particular, they are already very tense. In view of this boom, the insanity of a "one size fits all" monetary policy in Europe is once again being revealed.

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"Blue Skies on Wall Street."

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Dear Readers,

Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a positive and calm market on Wall Street. This has not changed in the forecast for July either. The seismograph, a kind of early warning system for equity investors, sees no clouds on the horizon despite the price losses of recent days.

As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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"Not a cloud in the Wall Street sky."

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Seismograph Sept 17

Dear Readers,

Since January, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the Technical University of Munich has been signaling a quiet, rising market on Wall Street. Now the indicator has set a new record. The early warning system for equity investors has never been as positive as it was in October.

As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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"Wall Street forecast continues bullish."

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Seismograph Sept 17

Dear Readers,

Also in October, the capital market seismograph of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst's team at the TU Munich gives the green light for equity investments in the USA. Since January, the seismograph has been signaling a quiet market on Wall Street that is rising in line with the trend.

As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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"Year of investment 2018 - it's going to be exciting."

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ifo index 11 2017

Dear Readers,

Investors have had an extremely successful year. And the overwhelming majority of capital market experts expect share prices to rise again next year. In doing so, they refer to the extraordinarily positive economic development in the world.

However, this expectation of sustained high economic momentum is likely to be reflected at least to a large extent in the high valuations on the stock markets. For investors it is therefore crucial: Will it be even better in the future than already expected today? For this reason, the private-wealth stock market indicator attaches great importance to the expectations of managers in German industry. This is surveyed monthly as part of the ifo business climate surveys.

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"Wall Street celebrates the New Year."

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Seismograph Sept 17

Dear Readers,

the capital market seismograph of the team of Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst (TU Munich) starts the year 2018, as he ended the year 2017 - in a buying mood. The stock market barometer continues to give the green light for equity investments in the USA. For a year now, the seismograph has been signaling a quiet market on Wall Street that is rising in line with the trend.

As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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"Is the showdown starting?"

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ifoindex Jan2018

Dear Readers,

the situation is getting worse. For the second time in a row, business expectations in industry have declined. Three consecutive declines would trigger a sell signal in the private wealth exchange model. We are therefore eagerly awaiting the results of the ifo economic survey in February.

This clouding of future prospects has been somewhat lost in the general euphoria. Finally, the business climate index as a whole rose again to the record level last reached in November.

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"Black Clouds on Wall Street - Selling."

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Dear Readers,

A week ago the team around Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst and Oliver Schlick wrote to us. The capital market seismograph is still giving the green light for equity investments: "But that can change very quickly now. We have our finger on the sales button",

Today is the day. "The probability of a bear market has increased significantly. This has triggered a sell signal in our model. The model recommends significantly reducing the current equity quota," says Oliver Schlick.

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