News from the editorial


Ifo-Klima again calls for caution.

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thumb ifo Index August 2016

Dear Readers,

The Munich-based ifo Institute presented the August results of its survey on the business climate and business expectations. According to the report, the mood in the German economy has deteriorated noticeably recently. The important expectation component in the manufacturing industry has even fallen below its long-term average.

This puts the industry back in the downturn quadrant of the ifo watch. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again (graphics below).

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Fulminant recovery in the Ifo climate.

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thumb ifo index sept 2016

Dear Readers,

A month ago there was still reason to fear that the German economy would fall into a downturn scenario in the autumn. The current results of the Ifo business climate index have impressively wiped this fear aside.

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Economy still ok - but a political thriller threatens.

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thumb ifo konjunkturindex Nov2016

Dear Readers,

Following its rapid rise in recent months, Germany's most important economic indicator has entered the reverse gear. Although the ifo business climate remained at a high level in November, expectations in industry declined slightly. Obviously, the discussions about Donald Trump's future trade policy have already slightly dampened export expectations.

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A conciliatory end to the year

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thumb ifo uhr Dez2016

Dear Readers,

The ifo economic indicator ended 2016 with an optimistic trend. After the decline in November, business expectations in industry improved again. Export expectations, which are so important for Germany, also increased in view of the falling euro exchange rate and the resulting improvement in price competitiveness.

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"Positive signals from Wall Street."

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Dear Readers,

The team led by Professor Dr. Rudi Zagst of the Technical University of Munich has just sent us the latest data from the capital market seismograph.

As you know, the scientists distinguish between three phases in the US equity market: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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Full steam ahead.

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thumb ifo Index Februar2017

Dear Readers,

The Ifo business cycle indicator has made up for last month's decline. It is noteworthy that companies are now assessing their current situation better than they have been for more than five years. There is no doubt about it: Germany is in the midst of a veritable economic boom. The fact that expectations for the coming six months have improved even further in this situation is astonishing. At some point in the coming months there will be a turnaround in expectations. Because if the economy cannot (even) get better, it simply gets worse. This needs to be monitored closely, as it could trigger a sell signal for equities.

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In the middle of a boom.

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thumb ifo Index march2017

Dear Readers,

The mood in German companies is getting better and better. The ifo business climate for industry has now reached its highest level since July 2011. Expectations for the coming six months are even more optimistic than in February. And export expectations are also increasing. All in all, as the graphs attached show, the German economy is

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Germany continues to boom.

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thumb ifo uhr april2017

Dear Readers,

The current business situation in German companies is currently assessed as more positive than it has been since mid-2011. In the construction industry, the assessment of the situation even rose to its highest level since reunification. The results of the surveys on the ifo business climate index in April now point to a significant acceleration in real economic growth in areas above the two percent mark. This is also underlined by the ifo traffic light. The signal there is clearly "green".

Germany is still in a boom scenario (see chart). This is also reflected on the stock markets. The DAX has now reached a new high and is already being paid at around 135 percent of its fair value. The overvaluation in the MDAX segment is even more massive.

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