News from the editorial


In the year 2019 sowing will take place.

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Dear Readers,

it's been a turbulent year. What began in an exuberant mood - economic and profit expectations were massively revised upwards at the beginning of 2018 - now ends in minor. Economists are cutting their growth forecasts, stock prices are falling. Investors look to the New Year with concern.

One of the best leading indicators signaled this trend reversal in good time. In February 2018, the expectation index for the ifo business climate in German industry fell for the third time in succession. The entrepreneurs surveyed by the ifo Institute became more sceptical - and rightly so, as we now know. In conjunction with the very high share prices, this generated a sell signal for the private-wealth stock market indicator ("We are out of here"). Since then the model is only minimally invested. The equity ratio is between zero and 30 percent of the amount earmarked for shares.

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The economy continues to cloud over.

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ifo ampel 11 2018Dear Readers,

The ifo business climate in November did not reverse the trend. The most important component for us - the industry's expectations for the future - has continued to decline. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again. Red traffic light values make a contraction of the economy more likely than an expansion.

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The weather is getting a little more relaxed.

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Dear Readers,

"the thunderstorm front, which led us to completely dismantle our shareholding two weeks ago, has now dissipated somewhat," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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Stock market indicator remains negative.

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Dear Readers,

ifo index oct18The ifo business climate is pointing downwards again in October. The most important component for us - the expectations in industry for the future - also fell back after a twofold increase. After a brief recovery, the mood in the export sector has also been dampened.

The ifo traffic light has thus switched from "green" to "yellow". At yellow traffic lights, the ifo Institute assumes that there is a high degree of uncertainty about the economic regime.

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Capital market seismograph warns of stock market storm.

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Dear Readers,

"The pace at which the probability of a bear market increases is worrying," informs Oliver Schlick, who recalculates the capital market seismograph every four days.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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Capital market seismograph says "sell."

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Dear Readers,

The new data of the capital market seismograph reach us just now. "The climate shift on the capital market, which has been the subject of discussion for quite some time, is now reflected in the probabilities of the seismograph and leads to the recommendation of a strong reduction in the share quota", Oliver Schlick informs, "the advice is to reduce the weight of shares considerably."

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

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Ifo-Klima again calls for caution.

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thumb ifo Index August 2016

Dear Readers,

The Munich-based ifo Institute presented the August results of its survey on the business climate and business expectations. According to the report, the mood in the German economy has deteriorated noticeably recently. The important expectation component in the manufacturing industry has even fallen below its long-term average.

This puts the industry back in the downturn quadrant of the ifo watch. The ifo traffic light is now also "red" again (graphics below).

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Fulminant recovery in the Ifo climate.

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thumb ifo index sept 2016

Dear Readers,

A month ago there was still reason to fear that the German economy would fall into a downturn scenario in the autumn. The current results of the Ifo business climate index have impressively wiped this fear aside.

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