• Klaus Meitinger

Thunderclouds have dissipated.

Dear Readers,

In recent weeks, the thunderclouds measured by capital market seismographs have gradually dissipated over the capital markets. "The sum of the "good" probabilities is now over 70 percent again." In combination with the sudden increase in the probability of calm markets, this ensures that the seismograph now considers a short-term significant increase in the share quota to be appropriate," explains Oliver Schlick, who regularly calculates the capital market seismograph with his team.

As you know, the capital market seismograph distinguishes between three phases: "green" (quiet market = buy), "yellow" (turbulent market with positive expectation = invest, but with hedge) and "red" (turbulent market with negative expectation = do not invest).

The probability of a calm, positive stock market has now risen from 14 to 33 percent. The probability of a turbulent, volatile market with a positive trend ("yellow") fell from 48 to 40 percent. The probability of negative turbulence fell significantly from 38 to 27 percent.

All of our input factors ensure a significant increase in the probability of calm markets, with the main reasons being the comparatively less convex yield curve and the further decline in risk premiums, in addition to the sharp decline in volatility. Equity investors can venture back into the market again," says Schlick.


The private-wealth stock market indicator has remained in defensive mode since the end of February 2018. This was triggered by the three-fold decline in ifo business expectations in the industry and the simultaneous very high valuation of the stock markets. Since then, the indicator has proposed a minimum weighting of equities of 0 - 30 percent of the individually planned equity component.

For the short-term positioning within this corridor we use the results of the capital market seismograph. Currently, he is proposing to position himself at the upper edge of this bandwidth.


Klaus Meitinger

Note: Despite careful selection of sources, no liability can be accepted for the accuracy of the content. The information provided in private wealth is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities.